An Analysis of NFL Wild Card Betting Trends: Impact of Underdogs, First-Time QBs, and Other Factors

• Check out these NFL betting trends for the Wild Card Round
• Underdogs are 24-12 ATS in the NFL playoff opening round since 2017
• Read below for analysis and NFL Wild Card trends to consider, including QB matchups

With the NFL Wild Card Round kicking off this weekend, bettors are looking for any edge they can get. Historical betting trends can provide valuable insight into how to approach these playoff matchups.

Among our top 2025 NFL Wild Card betting trends is how betting underdogs have performed against the spread in recent seasons. Another trend worth considering is the performance of quarterbacks making their first playoff doubt.

From the success rate of underdogs to the impact of quarterback experience, here’s what you need to know before placing your 2025 NFL Wild Card weekend wagers.

Underdogs in Wild Card Round

One of the most notable trends for Wild Card round weekend is how often underdogs cover the spread. Teams receiving points in the opening round of the playoffs are 24-12 against the number since 2017, including a 4-2 ATS mark in last year’s Wild Card games.

Here is a look at the ATS results for last year’s Wild Card round. Green Bay was one of the biggest Wild Card underdogs at +7 but wound up springing the upset in Dallas. The Bills, who were the heaviest 2024 Wild Card favorites, did cover the spread at home against Pittsburgh.

2023-24 NFL Wild Card Games

The primary reason betting underdogs is so profitable in the Wild Card round is due to public perception. Many casual fans are opening up their sportsbook accounts for the first time to place their bets on their favorite team during playoff time. Oddsmakers know they can inflate these lines, which puts value on the underdogs.

If you were to bet $100 on every NFL Wild Card underdog over the past seven seasons, you’d be up nearly $1,000 in profit ($981.82). They aren’t the most appealing bets, but betting ugly is often the key to returning a profit in NFL football.

Here are the matchups in the NFL Playoff Bracket for the 2024-25 Wild Card round, along with the spread for the underdogs. Pittsburgh (+10) and Denver (+9) stand out as the two heaviest dogs on the slate.

2024-25 NFL Wild Card Games

NFL Wild Card odds from a variety of top-rated sportsbooks on Jan. 8, 2025. Browse the best NFL betting apps for the opening round.

We’re intrigued by several underdogs in the NFL Wild Card round, but caution you to tread lightly with Pittsburgh. The Steelers are only 7-9-1 ATS as an underdog of 7+ points under Mike Tomlin, and have failed to cover in five straight playoff games.

Another trend working against Pittsburgh is that double-digit underdogs are 5-13 ATS in the playoffs since 2011. These football betting lines are typically inflated, but when a line crosses into double-digit territory, it’s usually set that high for good reason.

Veteran vs Young Quarterback Trend

If you’re looking to bet on a rookie in the playoffs, you may want to re-think your bet. First-time playoff starters have covered the spread just 38.5% of the time in the Wild Card round, and this weekend’s slate features three such quarterbacks in precarious positions.

Here’s how the Wild Card quarterback matchups break down:

The numbers paint a particularly grim picture for this weekend’s newcomers. Since 2002, quarterbacks making their first playoff start against more experienced counterparts are just 19-37-1 ATS (34%) and have performed even worse on the road (12-19-1 ATS).

Nix and Daniels face the additional hurdle of being rookies making their playoff debuts away from home. Since 2002, rookie quarterbacks in their first playoff start as road underdogs have gone just 2-8 straight up and 3-6-1 ATS, with an average losing margin of nearly two touchdowns.

Who’s your Rookie of the Year?

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Darnold, while more experienced in regular season play, falls into another troubling category: quarterbacks making their playoff debut at age 28 or older as underdogs are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS, with five of those losses coming by 18 or more points.

Over/Under Trends

If you’re looking to bet game totals, there are some fascinating Wild Card round trends to consider. Since the NFL expanded to an 18-game regular season in 2021, Wild Card games have slightly favored the Over at 55.6% (20-16).

Here’s how the totals break down for this weekend’s matchups:

Several teams have shown strong Wild Card round tendencies in recent seasons. The Buccaneers, Rams, and Eagles have all gone Under in each of their Wild Card appearances since 2021, while the Ravens have also trended Under at 66.7% (2-1).

On the flip side, multiple teams have shown perfect Over records in Wild Card games during this span:

• Bills (3-0 to Over)
• Steelers (2-0)
• Recent Over teams (1-0): Chargers, Vikings, Packers, Texans

A key situational trend: primetime playoff games in the opening round have gone Under in 7 of the last 10 matchups, something to consider for the Steelers-Ravens and Commanders-Buccaneers night games.

The NFL playoffs are always an exciting time for football fans, as teams battle it out for a chance to compete in the Super Bowl. One of the most intriguing aspects of the playoffs is the Wild Card round, where teams that didn’t win their division but still had a strong regular season record have a chance to make a run for the championship.

When it comes to betting on the Wild Card games, there are several key trends that bettors should be aware of. One of the most notable trends is the success of underdog teams in the Wild Card round. In recent years, underdog teams have performed surprisingly well in the Wild Card games, often pulling off upsets against higher-seeded opponents. This trend is something that bettors should keep in mind when placing their bets, as underdog teams can often provide great value in terms of odds.

Another factor that can impact Wild Card betting trends is the presence of first-time starting quarterbacks. Inexperienced quarterbacks can sometimes struggle in high-pressure playoff games, leading to unpredictable outcomes. However, there have also been instances where rookie or backup quarterbacks have risen to the occasion and led their teams to victory. Bettors should consider the experience level of the starting quarterback when making their bets, as this can have a significant impact on the outcome of the game.

In addition to underdogs and first-time quarterbacks, there are several other factors that bettors should take into account when betting on Wild Card games. One important factor is the strength of each team’s defense, as strong defensive play can often be a deciding factor in playoff games. Bettors should also consider injuries, weather conditions, and home-field advantage when making their bets, as these factors can all play a role in determining the outcome of the game.

Overall, betting on NFL Wild Card games can be a challenging but rewarding experience for football fans. By keeping an eye on key trends such as underdogs, first-time quarterbacks, and other factors, bettors can increase their chances of making successful bets during the Wild Card round. As always, it’s important to do thorough research and analysis before placing any bets, in order to make informed decisions and maximize your chances of winning.