- Penn State EDGE Abdul Carter is surging up 2025 NFL Draft betting odds
- Carter’s odds shortened from +1000 to +180 to go 1st overall after Myles Garrett trade request
- Is Carter worth a bet with the top pick? Read our full analysis below
The 2025 NFL Draft is still months away, but the betting markets are already shifting rapidly at the top. Penn State EDGE rusher Abdul Carter has seen his odds to go 1st overall shorten considerably after a massive shakeup in Cleveland.
Myles Garrett, the Browns’ All-Pro pass rusher, officially requested a trade on Monday. This immediately propelled Carter up draft boards, going from +1000 to +180 to be selected with the top pick at BetMGM.
Let’s dive into the latest NFL Draft odds and analyze whether Carter is worth betting on to be the first name called by Roger Goodell in April.
2025 NFL Draft 1st Pick Odds
Odds via BetMGM as of Feb 4, 2025.
Miami signal caller Cam Ward remains the slight favorite at +105, but Carter has undoubtedly made this a two-horse race. Travis Hunter (+250) and Shedeur Sanders (+850) are the only other prospects with odds shorter than 50-1.
The Titans currently hold the 1st overall selection after finishing 3-14 last season. Most assumed they would target a quarterback, but Garrett’s trade request has shaken things up considerably.
Carter’s Odds Shorten After Garrett Demands Trade
The Browns were already rumored to be interested in Carter with the 2nd overall pick. But after Garrett made his trade demand official, oddsmakers quickly adjusted Carter’s draft position prop.
The Browns are in a disastrous spot heading into 2025. Not only is their best player forcing his way out of town, but they remain saddled with Deshaun Watson’s albatross of a contract.
Watson was arguably the league’s worst starting QB in 2024 before suffering a torn Achilles late in the season. He’s expected to miss most of 2025 (if not the entire year) while counting over $72 million against the salary cap.
With such a tough cap situation, the Browns could be looking to completely rebuild their roster. If they trade Garrett for a haul of draft picks, Carter would be the logical selection to replace him.
The PSU EDGE is coming off a spectacular junior season in which he recorded 68 tackles, 24 tackles for loss, 12 sacks and earned unanimous All-America honors. The 6’3″, 252-pounder is an elite athlete who consistently wreaked havoc in opponents’ backfields.
Is Betting on Carter to Go 1st Overall a Wise Wager?
Despite his rise up draft boards, I’m hesitant to endorse Carter as the favorite. While he would fill a major need for Cleveland, the Browns aren’t actually on the clock at #1.
That honor belongs to Tennessee, who seem more likely to target a franchise QB instead. Even if the Titans fall in love with Carter, trading down would be the smarter play to recoup extra picks.
Based on BetMGM’s betting splits, Carter is receiving less than 25% of the handle (money) to be drafted 1st overall. The public still seems to believe a QB will be the pick, with Ward garnering over 38% of the handle.
I tend to side with the majority here. As pivotal as premier pass rushers are in today’s NFL, it’s still a quarterback-driven league. If the Titans aren’t sold on Ward, they could still target Shedeur Sanders (over 13% handle) or even trade down for a huge haul.
At +180 odds, I don’t see much value betting on Carter to go 1st overall. He’s undoubtedly one of the most talented prospects in this class, but QB is still king when it comes to the NFL Draft. Not to mention, the Myles Garrett next team odds favor the all-pro returning to Cleveland.
Ward remains my top choice, even at the slightly reduced +105 price. He has prototypical size, a rocket arm, and is coming off a scintillating final season at Miami. Unless the Titans are absolutely smitten with Carter, I expect they’ll take the more conventional route.
Abdul Carter, a standout college football player from the University of Alabama, has been making waves in the sports world with his exceptional performance on the field. With the 2025 NFL Draft just around the corner, many experts and analysts are predicting that Carter has a strong chance of being selected as the number one overall pick.
Carter, a 6’3″ quarterback with a powerful arm and impressive accuracy, has been turning heads with his exceptional playmaking abilities and leadership skills. He has shown great poise under pressure and an ability to read defenses with ease, making him a highly coveted prospect for NFL teams in need of a franchise quarterback.
One of the main reasons why Carter’s chances of being the number one pick in the 2025 NFL Draft have increased is his standout performance in the college football season. He has led his team to an undefeated record and has put up impressive statistics, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. His ability to make plays both with his arm and his legs has made him a dual-threat quarterback that NFL teams are eager to get their hands on.
In addition to his on-field performance, Carter has also impressed scouts and coaches with his work ethic and dedication to improving his game. He has been praised for his leadership skills and his ability to rally his teammates around him, making him a natural choice for a team looking for a franchise player to build around.
While there are still several months to go before the 2025 NFL Draft takes place, it seems increasingly likely that Abdul Carter will be the number one overall pick. With his exceptional talent, leadership skills, and work ethic, he has all the makings of a future star in the NFL. Fans and analysts alike will be eagerly watching to see where Carter lands on draft day and how he will impact the league in the years to come.