A Guide to UFC 302: Analysis of Makhachev vs Poirier, Strickland vs Cosa and Other Matchups with Odds, Picks, and Predictions

Feb 12, 2023; Perth, WA, AUSTRALIA; Islam Makhachev (red gloves) fights Alexander Volkanovski (blue gloves) during UFC 284 at RAC Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasmin Frank-USA TODAY Sports

• UFC 302 takes place this Saturday, June 1st at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
• Islam Makhachev defends his lightweight title against Dustin Poirier in the main event
• See below for complete UFC 302 odds, predictions, best bets, and viewing information

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The Octagon returns to the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey this Saturday, June 1st for UFC 302. The action kicks off with early prelims at 6:15pm ET on ESPN+, followed by prelims at 8pm ET on ESPN2 before the stacked main card gets underway at 10pm ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

In the main event, dominant UFC lightweight champ Islam Makhachev puts his title on the line against fan-favorite veteran Dustin Poirier. The co-main features a clash of top middleweight contenders as Sean Strickland takes on Paulo Costa in a five-round non-title bout.

Also on the main card, Kevin Holland looks to get back on track against the explosive Michal Oleksiejczuk at 185 pounds. We’ve got UFC 302 odds and predictions for all the main fights Saturday night.

Let’s break down the three biggest fights on the card and where the betting value lies:

UFC 302 Odds – Main Card

In the UFC 302 Fight Night odds for the main card, Islam Makhachev is the heaviest favorite at -675 in his bout with Dustin Poirier. Makhachev’s implied chance of winning based on the odds is 87%.

UFC 302 odds as of May. 30, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Bet on UFC 302 by registering with the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code.

Islam Makhachev (-675) vs. Dustin Poirier (+490)

Makhachev has looked nearly unbeatable since winning the lightweight strap, notching two successful title defenses over featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski. The Dagestani grappling ace is a massive -675 favorite here.

However, Poirier is by far the best lightweight Makhachev has faced to date. The former interim champ has a well-rounded skillset with slick boxing and underrated jiu-jitsu. At +490, he offers solid value as a live underdog.

While Makhachev will likely control long stretches of the fight with his wrestling, Poirier’s durability and submission savvy could allow him to survive and make things interesting if he can keep it standing. Poirier’s power also gives him a puncher’s chance to pull off the upset.

Ultimately though, Makhachev’s suffocating grappling attack should be too much over five rounds. Look for the champ to grind out a decision or lock up a late submission.

• Prediction: Makhachev by decision

Sean Strickland (-270) vs. Paulo Costa (+220)

Former middleweight champ Strickland is favored here, but Costa is a dangerous opponent who can end the fight with one shot. Strickland’s volume striking and cardio are his biggest advantages, as he’ll look to outpoint Costa over five rounds.

However, Costa’s explosive power and kicks are a major threat early. If he can land something big in the first couple rounds, he could put Strickland away. There’s definitely some value on Costa at +220 given his finishing ability.

That said, Strickland has proven extremely durable and Costa has faded in fights before. Unless Costa gets an early KO, Strickland’s pace and output should win him rounds as the fight goes on. It may not be pretty, but expect Strickland to outwork Costa for a decision.

• Prediction: Strickland by decision

Kevin Holland (-298) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+44)

Holland is looking to bounce back from two straight losses as he takes on the hard-hitting Oleksiejczuk. Holland’s diverse striking and slick submissions make him a clear favorite, but Oleksiejczuk has legitimate one-punch KO power that can’t be overlooked.

Holland will enjoy a seven-inch reach advantage and should be able to pick apart Oleksiejczuk from the outside. He’ll need to be wary of Oleksiejczuk’s bombs though, especially early. If Holland can weather the early storm, his volume and variety should take over.

Oleksiejczuk’s best path to victory is catching Holland early before he finds his rhythm. At +400 he’s a live underdog, but Holland is the more skilled and well-rounded fighter. Barring a big shot from the Pole, Holland should be able to outclass him everywhere.

• Prediction: Holland by submission

UFC 302 Odds – Preliminary Round

The UFC 302 odds for the preliminary round see Grant Dawson as the heaviest favorite in his fight with Joe Solecki. Dawson’s implied win probability is 83%.

Other UFC 302 Bets To Consider:

– Jailton Almeida (-290) is a solid parlay piece. His speed and striking should be too much for the inconsistent Alexander Romanov.

– Grant Dawson’s (-455) wrestling will likely be too much for Joe Solecki. He’s a safe bet but you must lay a lot of juice.

– Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+145) is a tempting underdog against Randy Brown given his KO power and Brown’s inconsistency.

Make sure to tune into the prelims at 8pm ET on ESPN2 before the main card kicks off at 10pm ET only on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

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