A Comparison of NFL Computer Picks and Expert Picks for Super Bowl 2025

• The conclusion of the 2024-25 NFL season, Super Bowl 59, is nearly here, and a huge portion of the US will be betting the game
• Compare SBD’s score predicting formula’s Super Bowl picks against the predictions of our experts
• Get a variety of 2025 Super Bowl picks from different sources below

The single largest betting day of the year is upon us: Super Bowl 59. The big game kicks off tonight between the Chiefs and Eagles at 6:30pm ET from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. The majority of the money bet on the 2025 Super Bowl will be on one of the moneyline, spread, or total. If you’re planning to add to that betting handle, but don’t know which of the two teams you want to bet, I have rounded up my SBD formula’s “computer pick” for the Super Bowl, as well as it’s predicted score, and have done the same thing for all of SBD’s experts too.

But there will also be significant money bet on other Super Bowl markets, so I have asked each of SBD’s experts to offer their favorite Super Bowl prop to bet as well. Find all of our Super Bowl 59 picks and predictions below!

NFL Computer Picks for Super Bowl 59

• SBD Formula’s Super Bowl Score Prediction: Eagles 20.5 – 13.4
• Moneyline Pick: Eagles
• ATS Pick: Eagles +2
• Game Total Pick: Under 48.5

Before you decide to tail (or maybe fade) any of the above Super Bowl picks, be sure to check out our NFL odds tool to ensure you have the best line/price for whatever it is you’re betting. It does the line shopping for you.

One other thing I want to disclose is that my SBD formula has been pretty good on the margin of victories in the last two Super Bowls (Chiefs played in both), but it has had the wrong team winning. Last year, it gave the nod to the 49ers and predicted they would win 20.5-14.4, which is eerily close to this year’s prediction. As we know, Kansas City went on to win by three points in overtime (would have been four if they were made to kick the XP). The year before, it had the Eagles to beat the Chiefs by 2.6 points, but we know Kansas City also won that one by three points.

So, it’s quite clear these Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs have consistently outperformed their season average in these big games. Do with that information whatever you like!

My SBD formula has gone 147-132-7 against the spread this season, which is a 52.7% win probability. If you had bet one unit on every game, you would be up 3.1 units. It hasn’t been a great year of ROI for my formula, but it’s still in the positive. Plus, if you learned early on that it wasn’t reading a few teams very well, you could have racked up some much better profits. Its record looked a fair bit better before going a horrendous 1-5 against the spread during the first round of the NFL playoffs.

Thankfully, neither the Chiefs or Eagles have been overly problematic for my SBD formula this season. In fact, when it has predicted the Chiefs would not cover the spread, it is 5-4. When it is picking the Eagles to cover, it is 7-5 and it is 4-2 when picking them to win away from home. (I know they are designated the “home” team for the Super Bowl, but they are not playing in their stadium.)

When it comes to the game’s total, my SBD formula is firmly on the under. The total for Super Bowl 59 is set at 48.5 (at the time of writing this), but my formula is only predicting 33.9 points will be scored between the Chiefs and Eagles. It knows how much of a focus the Eagles offense has on their ground game, and obviously suspects they will use that to their advantage to slow this game down, and keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands as much as possible. These are also two very good defenses we are dealing with.

Expert Picks for 2025 Super Bowl

Our experts at SportsBettingDime have been covering the NFL all season, and I am rounding up each of their Super Bowl picks below. You will find their Super Bowl 59 predicted score, best bet for Chiefs vs Eagles, and their favorite Super Bowl 59 prop. Keep in mind each analysis provided below has been written by that NFL expert, which is why they’re all in first-person.

Matt McEwan – Editor-in-Chief

• Super Bowl Predicted Score: Chiefs 24-21
• Best Bet for Super Bowl 59: Chiefs -1
• Favorite 2025 Super Bowl Prop Bet: Dallas Goedert 60+ receiving yards (+148 at FanDuel)

I almost never go against my SBD formula, but am going to do it in Super Bowl 59, in spite of almost every metric pointing to the Eagles as being the better team. As I mentioned above, the Chiefs have typically overperformed expectations in these big games, and I don’t think that’s just a fluke.

When you give Andy Reid a bye week (extra time to prepare), his teams are 14-4 straight up. He consistently has his teams prepared for every possible scenario, and is one of the more creative offensive minds in the league. It certainly helps that he has one of the greatest quarterbacks to play this game under center, executing in all of these high-pressure situations.

But it’s not just Reid; it’s the Chiefs’ entire coaching staff who deserves credit. Steve Spagnuolo may be the most underappreciated coordinator in football. He constantly brings new, exotic blitz packages to the table, and does a hell of a job confusing opposing quarterbacks.

I have spent the vast majority of my life believing you win football games in the trenches, and I do still believe that. However, Kansas City has proven in the past that you can lose the battle in the trenches and still win the game, as long as your coaching staff has a fart superior game plan than your opponent, and your quarterback plays unbelievable football.

Looking to my favorite Super Bowl prop, I like Dallas Goedert to record 60+ receiving yards at +148 odds. Goedert has only hit this milestone in four of 13 games this season, but he’s averaging 62.7 yards per game in the playoffs and I like the Chiefs to completely sellout to stop Saquon Barkley and the Eagles’ ground game. More attention will be given to AJ Brown by the Chiefs secondary, leaving Goedert with plenty of space to operate.

Sascha Paruk – Managing Editor & NFL Lead

• Super Bowl Predicted Score: Eagles 24-21
• Best Bet for Super Bowl 59: Eagles moneyline
• Favorite 2025 Super Bowl Prop Bet: Dallas Goedert over 49.5 receiving yards (FanDuel)

Philadelphia is too good along both the offensive and defensive lines. The Chiefs didn’t deserve to win the AFC title game but scraped by thanks to home-field advantage. On a neutral field where the bulk of sentiment will be with the underdogs, KC’s nine-game playoff win streak is coming to an end. Hopefully you got this when it was still +105 earlier in the week, but I still love the Eagles at even-money. All the metrics (DVOA, PFF, point differential) suggest they should be favored. It’s only Mahomes’ and Reid’s playoff reputations that situated Philly as underdogs.

KC allowed the third-most yards per game to tight ends during the regular season and Houston’s Dalton Schultz torched them for 63 yards on just four catches in the Divisional Round. With all the attention KC will have to pay to Saquon and the Philly ground game, Hurts’ safety valve with get his yards.

Brady Trettenero – NFL Editor

• Super Bowl Predicted Score: Eagles 21-17
• Best Bet for Super Bowl 59: Eagles +1.5
• Favorite 2025 Super Bowl Prop Bet: Mahomes & Hurts Passing Yards Under 465.5 (DraftKings)

I think Philly’s play on the lines of scrimmage will be the difference in this game. The Eagles have racked up 10 sacks in the Super Bowl and face a KC offensive line that has allowed the fourth-most pressures this season. Yes, Mahomes is incredibly clutch, but I’m predicting this to play out similar to Super Bowl 55, where Mahomes simply doesn’t have time to throw and is under duress all game. Look for the Eagles to control the clock with Barkley and Hurts, dominate up front, and crush KC’s chances of the three-peat.

I’m confident in an Eagles win, but when Mahomes is the other quarterback, I’ll take points if I can get them. Philly went 13-7 against the spread this season, and underdogs have covered in four straight Super Bowls. Dogs are 12-5 against the number in the past 17 Super Bowls.

I’m forecasting the Eagles’ ground game, led by Barkley, to dominate this game, so there are correlated ways to bet my predicted outcome. Hurts has averaged just 168.3 passing yards per game in the playoffs, with a career-low 48 pass attempts across three games. Meanwhile, Mahomes’ average dropped to 229 yards per game in this postseason, with just 245 passing yards in the AFC Championship. In their last Super Bowl matchup (2023), Mahomes and Hurts combined for 486 passing yards—but that required 65 pass attempts (38 from Hurts). This year’s tight spread and 48.5 total (down from 50.5) implies a lower-scoring, grind-it-out game.

Zach Reger – NFL Writer

• Super Bowl Predicted Score: Eagles 24-20
• Best Bet for Super Bowl 59: Eagles moneyline
• Favorite 2025 Super Bowl Prop Bet: Patrick Mahomes over 5.5 rushing attempts (BetMGM)

Much like when these two teams played in the Super Bowl two years ago, this is going to be a close game. Unlike that game, this one will be low-scoring. These are two incredible defenses who have had extra time to prepare. The Eagles have the edge with their rushing duo of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts, so they will be able to close this one.

I took a look at the under here for my best bet, but I like how Philadelphia matches up with Kansas City. The Chiefs’ offense had a lackluster season but got hot at the right time late in the season. They have not played a team with a defense like the Eagles though. I believe the front seven and the secondary of Philadelphia make it difficult for Kansas City to score. Then the Eagles can run the ball with Saquon Barkley behind their dominant offensive line.

Looking to my favorite prop, Mahomes runs more often in the playoffs, and I believe that will be the case here. With how good Philadelphia’s secondary is, Mahomes should have more than a few scrambles in this game. He is averaging nine rushing attempts per game in these playoffs and has had at least six attempts in every Super Bowl he has played in except one.

As the excitement builds for Super Bowl 2025, football fans are eagerly anticipating the big game and looking for any edge they can get when it comes to making their predictions. One popular method of predicting the outcome of sporting events is using computer picks, which analyze data and statistics to come up with a prediction. On the other hand, expert picks rely on the knowledge and experience of seasoned analysts and former players to make their predictions.

When it comes to the NFL, both computer picks and expert picks have their own strengths and weaknesses. Computer picks are based purely on data and statistics, which can sometimes lead to more objective and unbiased predictions. These picks take into account factors such as team performance, player statistics, and historical data to come up with a prediction. However, they may not always take into account intangible factors such as injuries, weather conditions, or team chemistry.

On the other hand, expert picks rely on the knowledge and experience of individuals who have spent years studying the game of football. These experts may have inside information on teams and players, as well as a deep understanding of the game itself. Expert picks can take into account factors that may not be reflected in the data, such as a key player’s injury status or a team’s recent performance in high-pressure situations.

So, which method is more reliable when it comes to predicting the outcome of Super Bowl 2025? The answer is not so clear-cut. While computer picks may provide a more objective analysis of the data, expert picks can offer valuable insights that may not be captured by the numbers alone. Ultimately, it may be best to consider a combination of both computer picks and expert picks when making your predictions for the big game.

In conclusion, when it comes to predicting the outcome of Super Bowl 2025, both NFL computer picks and expert picks have their own strengths and weaknesses. While computer picks may provide a more objective analysis of the data, expert picks can offer valuable insights that may not be captured by the numbers alone. By considering a combination of both methods, football fans can increase their chances of making an accurate prediction for the big game.