Sep 9, 2023; Sydney, NSW, AUSTRALIA; Israel Adesanya reacts during his fight with Sean Strickland (not pictured) in UFC 293 at Qudos Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasmin Frank-USA TODAY Sports
- UFC 305 goes down this Saturday, August 17, at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia
- Middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis defends his title against former champ Israel Adesanya in the main event
- Read below for UFC 305 odds, predictions, and fights for the top fights on the main card
UFC 305 takes place this Saturday, August 17, at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. The ESPN+ PPV main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, with prelims on ESPN (8 p.m. ET) and early prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET).
Headlining the event is a middleweight title clash between champion Dricus Du Plessis and former king Israel Adesanya. Oddsmakers are having a hard time choosing a favorite, giving a slight edge to the 35-year-old Nigerian.
We’ve got your full betting preview right here, with predictions, odds and props for the top fights. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 305 Odds – Main Card (August 17)
| Fighter | Odds | Over/Under Rounds |
|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | +295 | O 2.5 +120 |
| Carlos Prates | -375 | U 2.5 -154 |
| Fighter | Odds | Over/Under Rounds |
| Tai Tuivasa | +180 | O 1.5 +145 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | -218 | U 1.5 -188 |
| Fighter | Odds | Over/Under Rounds |
| Mateusz Gamrot | -345 | O 2.5 -270 |
| Dan Hooker | +275 | U 2.5 +200 |
| Fighter | Odds | Over/Under Rounds |
| Kai Kara-France | +145 | O 2.5 -270 |
| Steve Erceg | -175 | U 2.5 +200 |
| Fighter | Odds | Over/Under Rounds |
| Dricus Du Plessis | -105 | O 4.5 +100 |
| Israel Adesanya | -115 | U 4.5 -130 |
The biggest favorite on the main card is Carlos Prates at -375 over Li Jingliang (+295). Those odds imply Prates has a 78.95% chance of winning the fight, while Jingliang has just a 25.32% probability of pulling off the upset.
The most lopsided odds are in the Gamrot vs Hooker fight, with Gamrot a hefty -345 favorite (77.50% implied probability) against the +275 underdog Hooker (26.67%).
The tightest odds on the main card are for that Du Plessis vs Adesanya headliner, which is essentially a pick’em. Adesanya, nicknamed “The Last Stylebender” is a slim -115 favorite, giving him 52% implied win portability.
Odds as of August 15, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the available DraftKings promos for UFC 305.
Du Plessis vs Adesanya Prediction
The main event between Du Plessis (-105) and Adesanya (-115) is a tight matchup that could go either way. Du Plessis is coming off a split decision win over Sean Strickland to capture the belt, while Adesanya lost the title to Strickland last year.
Adesanya has the striking advantage with his technical kickboxing and ability to control distance. However, Du Plessis’ aggressive pressure style and strong wrestling could pose problems if he can close the distance and take Adesanya down.
| 30 | Age | 35 |
| 21-2 | Record | 24-3 |
| 19 | Finish Rate | 16 |
| 9 KO | Finish Method | 16 KO |
| Wrestling | Primary Strength | Striking |
| Good | Cardio | Great |
The key for “The Last Stylebender” will be using his footwork and counter-striking to keep the fight at range and pick apart Du Plessis as he comes forward. For “Stillknocks,” getting the fight to the ground and utilizing his top control will be crucial.
Du Plessis’ pace and power make him a live underdog in the UFC 305 odds. He hurt both Darren Till and Robert Whittaker on the feet. If he can get inside and make this ugly, the belt could stay around his waist.
That being said, however, I think Adesanya’s striking will ultimately be too much. He’s added some muscle to combat Du Plessis’ strength, and his footwork should allow him to potshot the champ as he wades forward. Give me Adesanya to recapture the belt via third-round TKO.
Du Plessis vs Adesanya Pick:
- Adesanya to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 (+1800)
Erceg vs Kara-France Picks
The co-main event pits Aussie Steve Erceg against New Zealand’s Kai Kara-France in a pivotal flyweight tilt. Erceg’s a solid -175 favorite, but KKF’s power makes him live at +145.
Erceg’s coming off a valiant title challenge loss to Alexandre Pantoja, where he showed improved striking and wrestling. His size and athleticism will be tough for Kara-France to deal with.
But Kara-France hits like a truck and only needs one clean shot. His grappling is suspect, though, and Erceg will likely mix takedowns with his long-range striking to keep him guessing.
It’s a close fight, but I favor Erceg’s versatility and gas tank. He should be able to outlast Kara-France for a decision win. Look for Erceg to use his five-inch reach advantage to maintain distance on the feet and pick his spots to shoot takedowns.
Erceg vs Kara-France Pick:
- Pick: Erceg To Win By Decision (+120)
Gamrot vs Hooker Prediction
Lightweight contenders Mateusz Gamrot and Dan Hooker face off in a potential Fight of the Night. Hooker’s striking is top-notch, but Gamrot’s wrestling could be kryptonite for the Kiwi.
Thank you to all fans and friends for your faith and support! All messages and energy! 3 days until UFC 305 in Australia! I’m ready and I’ll give it everything I have! @americantopteam pic.twitter.com/8Kb8I1FMgA
— Mateusz Gamrot (@gamer_mma) August 15, 2024
“The Hangman” has a clear advantage on the feet, with elite boxing and vicious knees and elbows in close. But he’s faded late in fights before, and Gamrot’s pressure and grappling are relentless.
I see Gamrot surviving some dicey moments early before imposing his will as the fight goes on. His cardio and offensive wrestling should carry him to a clear-cut decision.
Gamrot vs Hooker Pick:
- Gamrot To Win By Decision (-150)
UFC 305 Quick Picks
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-218) vs Tai Tuivasa (+180):
Heavyweight bangers collide in a fight unlikely to see the final bell. Rozenstruik’s technical striking gives him the edge, so lay the -218 on Bigi Boy.
Carlos Prates (-375) vs Li Jingliang (+295):
Prates is a fast-rising contender, but Jingliang’s power and experience make him a live dog at nearly 3-1 odds. The Leech is worth a flier at +295 to score the upset.
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
UFC 305 is set to feature a highly anticipated middleweight bout between Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya on Saturday, August 17th. As fight fans eagerly await this showdown, let’s take a closer look at the odds, predictions, and props for this exciting matchup.
Du Plessis, a rising star in the UFC, comes into this fight with an impressive record of 15-2. The South African fighter is known for his aggressive fighting style and knockout power, making him a dangerous opponent for anyone in the middleweight division. On the other hand, Adesanya, the reigning middleweight champion, boasts a record of 21-1 and is widely regarded as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. With his precision striking and elusive movement, Adesanya presents a unique challenge for Du Plessis.
In terms of odds, Adesanya is currently the favorite to win this fight, with most sportsbooks listing him as a -200 favorite. This means that a bettor would need to wager $200 on Adesanya to win $100 in profit. On the other hand, Du Plessis is the underdog in this matchup, with odds of +150. This indicates that a $100 bet on Du Plessis would yield a profit of $150 if he were to pull off the upset.
As for predictions, many experts believe that Adesanya’s experience and technical prowess will be too much for Du Plessis to handle. Adesanya’s striking ability and defensive skills make him a difficult puzzle to solve for any opponent, and it’s likely that he will use his range and footwork to outpoint Du Plessis over the course of five rounds. However, Du Plessis should not be underestimated, as his power and aggression could pose problems for Adesanya if he is able to close the distance and land some significant strikes.
In terms of props, bettors may want to consider wagering on the method of victory for this fight. With both fighters known for their knockout power, a bet on the fight ending by KO/TKO could be a lucrative option. Additionally, prop bets on the round in which the fight will end or whether it will go the distance could also provide some value for those looking to add some excitement to their viewing experience.
Overall, UFC 305 promises to deliver an exciting matchup between two talented middleweights in Du Plessis and Adesanya. While Adesanya is the favorite heading into this fight, anything can happen in MMA, and Du Plessis will be looking to make a statement with a win over the champion. Be sure to tune in on August 17th to see who emerges victorious in this highly anticipated showdown.