Predictions, Picks, and Player Props for the Florida vs Tennessee SEC Matchup

• Florida is favored over Tennessee in the SEC Tournament final on Sunday, March 16
• The Gators have won five straight games, all against KenPom top-25 teams
• Below, see the Tennessee vs Florida predictions, picks, and player props

The red-hot Florida Gators (29-4, 14-4SEC, 25-8 ATS) head into the SEC Tournament title game as 5.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Volunteers (27-6, 12-6 SEC, 18-15 ATS). The Tennessee vs Florida spread opened at just 2.5 points last night before ballooning in the hours that followed. The SEC Tournament final will take place at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville at 1:00 pm ET on ESPN.

Florida vs Tennessee Prediction

• Florida -3.5 (-158) at Caesars

Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 51-38 (+9.07 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

When the line was just Florida -2.5 last night, I was all over the Gators. Waking up and seeing it at 5.5,- while I’m not totally surprised – is much harder to stomach. The Florida moneyline went from -155 (a 60.78% implied win probability) all the way to -250 (a71.43% implied win probability). That’s a massive jump, and it happened in less than 12 hours without any notable injury news.

Tennessee is not only a phenomenal defensive team, rating third in the nation in defensive efficiency at KenPom, they also play at one of the slowest tempos in the nation (348th). Fewer possessions means fewer chances to grow a lead, and 5.5 is not an insignificant spread to cover. Of Tennessee’s six losses this season, four have come by five points or fewer.

One of those losses – by far the biggest of the season for the Vols – was a 30-point setback at these same Gators on Jan. 7. But UT wasn’t a great road team this season, at least not in true road games, going just 6-5 straight-up and 5-6 ATS. They were are a perfect 5-0 SU in neutral-site games and 4-1 against the spread.

The Gators, of course, have been equally good, actually better. After trouncing Alabama (104-82) in the SEC semifinals, Florida is now 6-0 straight-up in neutral-site games and have covered every game against the spread.

Hopefully you got the Gators at -2.5 last night, but if you’re just coming to this game on Sunday morning, my best bet for the outcome is Florida -3.5 at a -158 price at BetMGM. The Gators have risen to third-favorite in the March Madness championship odds, and they are my pick to win it all at this juncture. Their road to glory starts with an SEC Tournament title on Sunday, though I am not confident it will be a blowout against the defensively-stout Volunteers.

FLA vs TENN Player Props

Florida vs Tennessee player props from bet365 on March 16. Read SBD’s guide on March Madness betting strategy ahead of Selection Sunday.

A trio of players are tied for the highest point total on Sunday at 15.5 O/U, Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr (17.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.4 APG) and Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier (17.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.0 APG) and Zakai Zeigler (13.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 7.3 APG).

Zeigler, who finished fifth in the nation in assists per game, also has the highest assist prop at 6.5 O/U.

Florida big man Alex Condon (11.2 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.3 APG) has the highest rebound total on Sunday at 7.5.

Tennessee vs Florida Picks

• Walter Clayton Jr over 15.5 points (-120) at bet365
• Alex Condon over 7.5 rebounds (-110)

My best player prop bet today is Walter Clayton Jr to go over 15.5 points. Clayton has been the best player in the SEC Tournament, leading the Gators in scoring in each of their last three. He dropped 18 in the 95-81 quarterfinal win over Missouri, and then had 22 last night in the lopsided win over Alabama.

He’s was pedestrian in the first two games against Tennessee, scoring just seven points in Florida’s lopsided home win, and 10 in UT’s own lopsided home win, when the Gators were held to a season-low 44 points (64-44). But Clayton is a streaky player and there’s no denying that he’s hot right now. This 15.5-point O/U is well below his season average, and while the Tennessee defense merits a dip, this is too low for my liking.

My second prop pick is Alex Condon to go over 7.5 rebounds. He averages 7.9 and has had at least eight in four of his last five games. He grabbed 12 against UT when the Gators won in Gainesville. He was limited to just five when the Vols won the rematch, but he was also limited to just 22 minutes in a game where basically every Florida player looked hungover.

The Florida Gators will face off against the Tennessee Volunteers in a highly anticipated SEC matchup this weekend. Both teams have had strong starts to the season and are looking to continue their success in this crucial conference game.

The Gators come into this game with a 3-1 record, with their only loss coming against Alabama, the top-ranked team in the country. Quarterback Emory Jones has been a key player for Florida, throwing for over 800 yards and six touchdowns so far this season. Running back Dameon Pierce has also been a standout performer, rushing for over 300 yards and four touchdowns.

On the other side, the Volunteers have also had a solid start to the season with a 2-2 record. Quarterback Hendon Hooker has been a dynamic playmaker for Tennessee, throwing for over 800 yards and six touchdowns as well. Running back Jabari Small has been a reliable option in the backfield, rushing for over 200 yards and three touchdowns.

In terms of predictions for this game, it is expected to be a close matchup between these two evenly matched teams. The Gators have a slight edge in terms of talent and experience, but the Volunteers have shown that they can compete with some of the best teams in the country.

As for picks, the Gators are favored to win this game by a narrow margin. However, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Volunteers pull off an upset at home. It will likely come down to which team can make the most plays in key moments of the game.

In terms of player props, keep an eye on Emory Jones and Hendon Hooker to have big games through the air. Both quarterbacks have shown the ability to make plays with their arms and legs, so expect them to put up impressive numbers in this matchup.

Overall, this Florida vs Tennessee SEC matchup is shaping up to be an exciting and competitive game. Both teams have the talent and potential to come out on top, so it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds on game day.