Predictions, Props, and Odds for Saturday Night Basketball Matchup between Houston and Baylor

• The #3 Houston Cougars visit the Baylor Bears as 4.5-point road favorites
• Houston won the first meeting 76-65 at home last month
• See the Houston vs Baylor prediction, props & odds for tonight’s Big 12 showdown

It’s the final day of the regular season in college hoops, and we have a monster Big 12 matchup to break down in the college basketball odds. The #3 Houston Cougars (26-4, 18-1 Big 12) hit the road to battle the Baylor Bears (18-12, 10-9 Big 12) with major postseason implications on the line.

Tip-off for this Saturday night special is set for 10 pm ET at the Ferrell Center in Waco, TX, with ESPN providing the national broadcast.

Houston vs Baylor Odds

Houston enters this game as a 4.5-point road favorite, with a total set at 130.5 points. The Cougars are -200 on the moneyline (bet $200 to win $100), with Baylor coming back at +165 (bet $100 to win $165).

Per the college basketball public betting trends, 95% of moneyline handle and 87% of ATS bets are on Houston.

Odds as of March 8th at BetMGM. Check out BetMGM rewards for the best college basketball offers.

Houston vs Baylor Prediction

Houston is steamrolling towards a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars have already clinched the Big 12 regular-season title at 18-1 in conference play and are riding a 9-game winning streak into Waco. They rank 3rd overall in KenPom’s rankings, with the nation’s 2nd-most efficient defense.

I’m making Houston -4.5 my best bet in this spot. The Cougars already beat Baylor 76-65 at home last month, and their elite defense travels extremely well. Houston is a perfect 9-0 straight up on the road in Big 12 play, covering the spread in 8 of those contests. They match up well with a Baylor squad that has struggled against top competition.

The Bears are just 0-7-2 ATS as an underdog this season, losing those 9 games by an average of 13.1 points. They shot 57.9% from the field and 60% from three in the first meeting with Houston and still lost by double-digits. The Cougars are relentless on the defensive end, forcing turnovers on 22.3% of possessions (12th nationally).

Houston’s ability to control the pace (360th in adjusted tempo) is another big advantage in this matchup. Baylor wants to speed things up offensively, but will have a hard time doing so against this disciplined and veteran Cougars squad. I’m laying the short number with the better team on the road.

• Houston vs Baylor Pick: Houston -4.5 (-110)

Houston vs Baylor Props

Before you make any Saturday college basketball prop bets, it’s a good idea to understand the tempo and defense of these two Big 12 programs.

Advanced stats from KenPom.com. AdjO = Offensive Efficiency, AdjD = Defensive Efficiency, AdjT = Adjusted Tempo, SOS = Strength of Schedule

Based on these stats from KenPom, I’ve locked in a few prop bets for Houston vs Baylor, though admittedly, they may not be the most fun to bet.

Houston vs Baylor Prop Pick #1: Houston Under 67.5 Points (-115)

Sticking with the expectation of a slow-paced, defensive battle, I’m playing Houston’s team total under. The Cougars play at the 360th fastest tempo nationally, milking the shot clock and limiting possessions. Baylor’s defense is much better at home, allowing just 65.5 points per game compared to 73.7 on the road.

Houston scored 76 in the first meeting, but shot 10-of-24 (41.7%) from three-point range. That’s well above their season average of 33.2%. If the Cougars have an off shooting night on the road, points could be very hard to come by. I’m projecting something like a 64-58 Houston win, so give me the under on their inflated team total.

Houston vs Baylor Prop Pick #2: Robert Wright UNDER 9.5 Points (-110)

The freshman has been inconsistent in Big 12 play, and I’m fading him against Houston’s stifling defense. Wright did score 10 in the first matchup, but I’m not sold it’s replicable, with four points coming from the free throw line and two from deep.

Wright is shooting just 28% from three in conference play, and has gone under this total in three of his last six. In a step up in competition, I’m selling high on his recent production and playing the under.

The highly anticipated Saturday night basketball matchup between the Houston Cougars and the Baylor Bears is sure to be a thrilling game for fans of both teams. With both teams coming off strong performances in their previous games, this matchup is shaping up to be a close and competitive one.

Looking at the predictions for this game, it’s clear that both teams have a good chance of coming out on top. The Cougars have been playing solid basketball all season, with a strong defense and efficient offense. Led by star guard Quentin Grimes, who is averaging 18.1 points per game, Houston has the ability to score in bunches and shut down their opponents on the defensive end.

On the other hand, the Baylor Bears have been one of the top teams in the country this season, boasting a 17-2 record and a number 2 ranking in the AP Poll. Led by guards Jared Butler and MaCio Teague, who are averaging 16.9 and 14.9 points per game respectively, Baylor has a high-powered offense that can put up points in a hurry.

In terms of props for this game, there are several key matchups to keep an eye on. The battle in the paint between Houston’s big men and Baylor’s frontcourt will be crucial, as both teams have strong post players who can dominate inside. Additionally, the matchup between Grimes and Butler will be one to watch, as both players are capable of taking over a game with their scoring ability.

As for the odds for this game, it’s expected to be a close one with both teams having a good chance of winning. Currently, Baylor is favored by 4.5 points according to most sportsbooks, but with the way Houston has been playing recently, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them pull off the upset.

Overall, Saturday night’s matchup between Houston and Baylor is shaping up to be a must-watch game for college basketball fans. With both teams playing at a high level and plenty of talent on both sides, this game has all the makings of a classic showdown. Be sure to tune in and see which team comes out on top in what is sure to be an exciting and competitive game.