Predictions, Expert Picks & Odds for Champions League Round of 16 Matches on Tuesday, March 4th

• The Champions League returns today with four Round of 16 first-leg matches
• Today’s legs are highlighted by the all-La Liga matchup of rivals Real Madrid & Atletico Madrid
• See the matchups, odds, and best bets for March 4th’s UCL R16 matches

The Champions League is down to its final sixteen teams! After a thrilling playoff round where a number of Europe’s biggest clubs were vanquished by some unlikely conquerors, the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 begins today with four first-leg matches.

Earning a positive result in the first of these home-and-away matches is always key in determining who’s likely to advance. Though Aston Villa, Borussia Dortmund, Arsenal, and Real Madrid are all favored to advance, only Dortmund and Real have the benefit of opening the round at home.

That could be problematic for the two EPL sides, Villa and Arsenal. Although both clubs currently have a probability to advance greater than 75%, Brugge and PSV cannot be taken lightly. The Belgian and Dutch sides respectively knocked out Italian powers Atalanta and Juventus. Underestimate clubs outside the big five leagues at your own risk!

Odds below as of March 4th at bet365 Sportsbook. Get the latest bet365 promo code before betting on this week’s UEFA Champions League matches.

Champions League Predictions & Picks (Tuesday, March 4)

Club Brugge vs Aston Villa Best Bet: Club Brugge to Win Leg 1 (+200)

For me, this match comes down to whether coach Unai Emery learned anything during the club’s last trip to Bruges. For Villa’s sake, I hope it goes beyond telling Tyrone Mings to keep his hands in his pockets.

Club Brugge vs Aston Villa is one of two Round of 16 rematches following this year’s new league format (Benfica vs Barcelona being the other), but is likely one-of-one when it comes to bizarre game-winning goals, when the aforementioned Mings picked up an already-taken goal kick, to hand the ball back to goalkeeper Emi Martinez. A penalty kick was immediately awarded, Brugge converted, and Villa went home with their first loss in league play.

Villa could only muster a single shot on target and just one from inside the penalty area (no, they weren’t the same shot). It was an example of The Lions inability to win away matches: they’ve collected just two wins and no draws in their last ten away matches in all competitions. Comparatively, Brugge are 7-2-1 in their last ten home matches.

On average, Brugge has conceded more than a goal per game at home, but against an Aston Villa side that doesn’t travel well, I’m willing to lean into a repeat 1-0 win for the Blauw-Zwart.

Borussia Dortmund vs LOSC Lille Pick: Lille to Advance (+120)

It’s last year’s surprise runner-up going up against the only club to survive this year’s UCL qualifying round. Dortmund are hoping to recreate last year’s shock run to the Champions League final, collecting scalps from the likes of Milan, Atletico, and PSG, before falling to Real in the final. They’ll be going up against a tested side in Lille who, following a fifth-place finish in Ligue 1 last season, were forced into this year’s UCL qualifying stages.

And boy have Les Dogues been tested: after surviving the qualifying stages through a 118th-minute AET goal against Fenerbahce, Lille have been on a tear. They’ve defeated Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, and Feyenoord to cap off a sixth-place finish in the league stage. Comparatively, Dortmund finished just outside the Top 8 and into the playoff round, where BVB comfortably advanced over Sporting CP.

Speaking of Sporting, that’s one of four shared opponents between Dortmund and Lille in this year’s competition. Though both claimed wins against Sturm Graz, Dortmund also suffered defeats against Real Madrid and Bologna. Lille would incidentally do the opposite: lose to Sporting (early in the competition), but go on to defeat both Real & Bologna.

Taking down last year’s champion, who beat your current opponent in last year’s final, is pretty significant, as is Dortmund’s current domestic form (they’re not even qualifying for the Conference League right now!). That’s why I’m going with Lille to advance outright.

PSV Eindhoven vs Arsenal Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals Scored in Leg 1 (-125)

I’m going to keep this one real simple: I’m not expecting a lot of goals from PSV and Arsenal on Tuesday.

Yes, PSV averaged 2.0 goals per game during the UCL League Phrase and have scored an absolutely bonkers 73 goals in 24 matches in this season’s Eredivisie. More than three goals scored per game is absolutely ridiculous! To be fair, those numbers have been shored up against the likes of Groningen, Zwolle, and Almere City. Not exactly the heaviest of hitters.

But what’s also ridiculous is the Goals Allowed total boasted by Arsenal in the Champions League: three. That’s it. PSV may be able to shell mid-table Dutch clubs at home, but Arsenal’s defense over the past year and a half have been formidable.

So why am I taking the under for goals scored? Because Arsenal have no strikers right now. Without Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz, and Gabriel Jesus, the Gunners will certainly be lacking on the attack. That doesn’t mean they’ll lose the tie; I just don’t think we’ll see many goals in the first leg.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Pick: Real Madrid to Win Leg 1 (-110)

The match we’ve all been waiting for: El Derbi Madrileño! Real versus Atleti!

And to think, we only got here because Real, last year’s UCL winners, fell into the Knockout Playoffs and were then drawn against Manchester City! But it wasn’t for lack of trying: with League Phase losses coming from the likes of Lille, Milan, and Liverpool, it’s understandable that Los Blancos have had a difficult go of it until now. Comparatively, Atleti also suffered a defeat to Lille (and Benfica), but also handed losses to PSG, Bayer Leverkusen, and RB Leipzig.

But if I’m going to do any kind of comparison, it’s to note how both La Liga matches this season between Real and Atleti ended in 1-1 draws where the home sides would respectively lead in xG and possession, but have to claw back an equalizer to earn a draw. Interestingly, both teams finished the UCL League Phrase with 20 Goals For and 12 Goals Against, even though Real lost an extra match.

Similarly, Real and Atleti currently boast goal differentials of +30 and +27, respectively, in this season’s La Liga, despite how Real has scored 12 mote domestic goals thus far (55 to 43).

But domestic data can only take us so far; this is the Champions League, after all! A competition Real Madrid has won FIFTEEN TIMES! To paraphrase Vin Diesel in his magnum opus xXx, Real lives for this tournament. Two draws against your cross-town rival only mean so much in a knockout tournament you typically dominate.

If you can find “Over 2.5 Goals” at odds longer than -110, I’d take it; instead, I’ll go with the same odds to see Real win outright.

The Champions League Round of 16 is heating up with some exciting matches set to take place on Tuesday, March 4th. Football fans around the world are eagerly anticipating the outcomes of these games, as the competition gets tougher and the stakes get higher.

One of the most highly anticipated matches of the day is between Barcelona and Napoli. Barcelona, led by superstar Lionel Messi, will be looking to secure a win at home to advance to the quarter-finals. However, Napoli, with players like Dries Mertens and Lorenzo Insigne, will be looking to cause an upset and advance themselves. The odds for this match are currently in favor of Barcelona, but anything can happen in football.

Another match to watch out for is between Bayern Munich and Chelsea. Bayern Munich are in top form this season and are considered one of the favorites to win the Champions League. Led by Robert Lewandowski, they will be looking to secure a comfortable win at home against Chelsea. However, Chelsea, under new manager Frank Lampard, have been performing well in the Premier League and will be looking to cause an upset. The odds for this match are heavily in favor of Bayern Munich.

In terms of expert picks, many analysts are predicting wins for Barcelona and Bayern Munich in their respective matches. Barcelona’s home advantage and Napoli’s inconsistent form are seen as key factors in Barcelona’s favor. Similarly, Bayern Munich’s strong squad depth and Chelsea’s defensive vulnerabilities are seen as reasons for Bayern Munich’s predicted win.

Overall, the Champions League Round of 16 matches on Tuesday, March 4th are set to be thrilling encounters with plenty of excitement and drama. Football fans can expect some high-quality football and intense competition as the teams battle it out for a spot in the quarter-finals. It will be interesting to see which teams come out on top and advance in the competition.