Analysis of the 2025 Canadian Election Odds: Liberals Closing in on Conservatives

• The odds to win the next Canadian election still favor Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives
• The odds and polls have been moving in the Liberals’ favor over the last month
• See the latest odds to win the next Canadian election, which will take place on or before Oct. 20, 2025

Just six weeks ago, oddsmakers and political traders alike considered the 2025 Canadian election all but a done deal. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party was as short as -4000, which equates to a 97.56% implied win probability. Fast forward to today, however, the odds are much narrower with Justin Trudeau’s Liberals making up significant ground.

Canadian Election Odds 2025

Note that the trading site Kalshi uses the current party leaders – Pierre Poilievre, Justin Trudeau, and Jagmeet Singh – as stand-ins for the party’s in their market titled “Who will be the Canadian Prime Minister after the next election?” But the rules of that market make it clear that “If the first Prime Minister for the 45th Parliament is a member of the Conservative Party, then the [Poilievre] market resolves to Yes” and same for Trudeau and Singh, mutatis mutandis.

Odds and prices as of Feb 24 at FanDuel and Kalshi. New customers can claim the Kalshi promo code to use on any trading market at the site.

Conservatives Still Favored

Make no mistake, the Conservatives are still the frontrunners. Their odds at FanDuel (-400) give them to an 80% implied win probability, while their 71¢ price at Kalshi gives them a 71% chance.

The alarming fact for Poilievre and company, though, is just how much ground they have conceded to the Liberals in a relatively short period of time. As mentioned at the top, the Conservatives were -4000 in this same market at FanDuel on Jan. 13th. They were trading at 95¢ at Kalshi early in the month of January.

The polls at that time showed Poilievre and the Conservatives with a 25% lead, nationally. FanDuel actually favored the Bloc Québécois, which only runs candidates in the province of Quebec, to win more seats than the Liberal party and be the official opposition.

But as the second Donald Trump administration has sabre-rattled about annexation and imposed massive tariffs on Canadian imports, the polls in Canada have started moving away from the Conservatives – who are seen as the most Trump-esque – and toward the Liberals.

Liberals Benefiting from Second Trump Administration South of the Border

Embattled current Prime Minister Trudeau has not minced words when it comes to Trump’s attitude toward Canada. “There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada will ever be the 51st state,” Trudeau firmly asserted during a press conference in Belgium earlier this month.

After Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian imports (which could come into effect as early as March 4th), Trudeau’s Liberal government answered back with a pledge to impose their own 25% tariffs on US goods coming north of the border.

The latest poll aggregator from CBC shows Conservative support down to 41.8% with Liberal support shooting up to 27.4%. Importantly for the Libs, the support that’s leaving the Conservative Party seems to, almost entirely, be turning red, and they’re also picking up some orange outflow as well.

Jagmeet Singh’s NDP has actually declined from 19.3% support on Jan. 13 to just 15.4% today.

The political market that FanDuel posted last month – which party will form the official opposition after the next election – has been taken down.

As the 2025 Canadian election approaches, political analysts and pundits are closely watching the odds and predictions for the outcome of the race. One of the key trends that has emerged in recent weeks is the narrowing gap between the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party in the polls.

According to recent polling data, the Liberals, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, have been gaining ground on the Conservatives, who are currently led by Erin O’Toole. While the Conservatives have maintained a slight lead in the polls for much of the campaign, the Liberals have been steadily closing in on their rivals in recent weeks.

One of the key factors driving this shift in the polls is the strong performance of the Liberal government in recent months. The Trudeau administration has been praised for its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as its efforts to stimulate economic growth and create jobs. This has helped to boost the party’s popularity among voters, particularly in key swing ridings.

In addition, the Liberals have also been successful in attracting support from younger voters and minority communities, who have traditionally been more likely to support progressive policies. This has helped to broaden the party’s appeal and attract new supporters who may have previously voted for other parties.

On the other hand, the Conservative Party has faced challenges in recent months, including internal divisions over key policy issues and a lack of clear messaging on key campaign issues. This has made it difficult for the party to gain traction with voters, particularly in urban areas where support for the Liberals is strongest.

Despite these challenges, the Conservatives still maintain a slight lead in the polls and are expected to put up a strong fight in the upcoming election. However, if current trends continue, it is possible that the Liberals could overtake them and emerge victorious on election day.

Overall, the 2025 Canadian election is shaping up to be a closely contested race between the Liberals and Conservatives. With just weeks to go until election day, both parties will be working hard to win over undecided voters and secure a majority government. It remains to be seen which party will come out on top, but one thing is clear: the race is far from over.