- The Super Bowl prediction markets at Kalshi are offering better value than traditional sportsbooks for Chiefs vs Eagles
- Sports traders at Kalshi can get the Chiefs to win at the equivalent of -113 odds and the Eagles at +108
- Below, see a breakdown of the Super Bowl prediction markets compared to the current Chiefs/Eagles odds at sportsbooks
In late January, prediction site Kalshi jumped into sports trading by posting Super Bowl 59 prediction markets, allowing users to buy contracts on which team would win the 2025 Super Bowl: the Kansas City Chiefs or Philadelphia Eagles. The prices on both teams have moved up/down a cent or two over the last couple weeks, settling at Kansas City 53¢ and Philadelphia 48¢ on Sunday morning. Every winning contract at Kalshi pays out $1, so buying KC to win at 53¢ profits 47¢ for every contract purchased, while buying PHI at 48¢ profits 52¢ for every contract purchased. As I’ll explain in more detail below, both of those Kalshi prices offer better value than the current Chiefs vs Eagles odds at sportsbooks.
Super Bowl 59 Prediction Markets (vs Sportsbook Odds)
The price on the Chiefs of 53¢ is the equivalent of betting the Kansas City moneyline at -113 at a traditional sportsbook (a bet at -113 would profit 47¢ for every 53¢ wagered) while the price on the Eagles of 48¢ is the equivalent of betting the Philadelphia moneyline at +108 (a bet at +108 would profit 52¢ for every 48¢ wagered).
Prices as of 9:50 am ET, Feb. 9. Claim a Kalshi promo code to get a $10 bonus upon registration.
What’s the Difference Between Betting on the Super Bowl and “Predicting” Super Bowl?
If you’re a sportsbook operator or the owners of Kalshi, there is obviously a big difference between what you do and how you sustain your business. But if you’re a bettor/Kalshi user, there is very little practical difference between betting on the Super Bowl at a sportsbooks and predicting the outcome of the Super Bowl at a site like Kalshi: you profit if your prediction is correct.
The reason why the Kalshi prices are currently better than the odds on offer at traditional sportsbooks is the proverbial juice. At Kalshi, with the Chiefs trading at 53¢ to win (53% implied win probability) and the Eagles at 48¢ (48% implied win probability), the cumulative implied probability is just 101%.
At sportsbooks, however, the cumulative implied win probability is much higher. The traditional sportsbook with the lowest juice on the Super Bowl is FanDuel, which lists the Chiefs at -116, which carries a 53.70% implied win probability, and the Eagles at -102, which carries a 50.50% implied win probability. Altogether, that amounts to a 104.2% cumulative implied win probability, 3.2% higher than the prices at Kalshi.
And, as mentioned, FanDuel is the best of the traditional sportsbooks at the moment. Most sites have the moneyline at KC -115/PHI -105, which is a 104.72% cumulative win probability.
The proprietors at Kalshi have long touted that one of the main advantages of their site is that users are not “betting against the house” and their current Super Bowl prices lay that truth bare.
Another huge advantage of Kalshi, at least for the moment, is that it’s currently available in all 50 states. Since it is not technically sports betting, it isn’t governed by the same laws and regulations as sites like FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.
Kalshi Super Bowl Traders Can Sell Their Position Before the Game Is Over
One of the other huge advantages of using a prediction site like Kalshi instead of a traditional sportsbook is the potential to sell your position mid-game. Yes, sportsbooks tend to offer “cashout” options these days. But I have, personally, yet to come across a sportsbook that offers proper equity on open bets (aside from bet365, which once allowed me to cashout a winning wager at full value before it had been officially graded, but that’s not pertinent to my current point).
At Kalshi, traders can sell their contracts to other users in an open market. So if the Eagles jump out to, say, a 28-3 lead just before halftime and you – an Eagles backer – don’t like the karma associated with that particular scoreline (sorry for the collateral damage, Falcons fans), you could sell your open contracts on Philadelphia to win to someone who doesn’t hold that particular superstition.
You would have the chance to see what Philadelphia to win is currently trading at and set your sale price accordingly. There is no guarantee you will find a buyer exactly when you want to at exactly the price you want to but, if you do, you will tend to get much better value for your open contract than you would cashing out an open wager at a traditional sportsbook.
Chiefs vs Eagles Prediction
I was all over the Eagles when the odds were first released and Philadelphia was listed as +105 underdogs. With the Eagles’ moneyline moving past even-money at most sportsbooks, I started to lose my enthusiasm for the Philly moneyline, but the Kalshi price of 48¢ brings renewed enthusiasm.
I have been saying this for the better part of a fortnight: the Eagles rate higher in DVOA, rank significantly better at PFF, and had a point differential that was 101 points higher than Kansas City in the regular season (+160 to +59).
The Chiefs are only favored because they’re a dynasty, because Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have attracted an unbeatable aura, hard-earned by nine straight playoff wins. But that’s recency bias to its fullest. Mahomes and Reid are 3-1 in Super Bowls, losing to Tom Brady’s Buccaneers (31-9) in Super Bowl 55. Reid is 18-7 in the postseason with the Chiefs, and 17-3 with Mahomes as his QB.
Exceptional: yes. Unbeatable: no.
Super Bowl 59 prediction: Eagles to win
Looking for other Super Bowl 59 picks and predictions? Check out the following:
Kalshi, a prediction market platform that allows users to bet on the outcomes of various events, including sports games, has released its predictions for the Super Bowl 2025 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. According to Kalshi’s prediction markets, the Chiefs are favored to win over the Eagles.
This prediction is in contrast to the odds offered by traditional sportsbooks, which currently have the Eagles as the favorites to win the Super Bowl. This discrepancy between Kalshi’s prediction markets and sportsbook odds highlights the unique insights that prediction markets can offer when it comes to forecasting the outcomes of sporting events.
Prediction markets like Kalshi operate on the principle of the wisdom of crowds, where the collective knowledge and opinions of a large group of individuals are used to make predictions about future events. By aggregating the information and beliefs of a diverse range of participants, prediction markets can often provide more accurate forecasts than traditional methods of prediction, such as expert opinions or statistical models.
In the case of the Super Bowl 2025 matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles, Kalshi’s prediction markets have identified the Chiefs as the likely winners based on the collective wisdom of its users. This prediction is based on a variety of factors, including team performance, player injuries, coaching strategies, and other relevant information that may impact the outcome of the game.
While sportsbooks rely on expert analysis and statistical models to set their odds, prediction markets like Kalshi offer a different approach to forecasting sporting events. By tapping into the collective intelligence of a diverse group of participants, prediction markets can provide valuable insights and predictions that may not be captured by traditional methods.
As the Super Bowl 2025 approaches, it will be interesting to see whether Kalshi’s prediction markets prove to be more accurate than the odds offered by sportsbooks. Whether you’re a fan of the Chiefs, Eagles, or just interested in sports betting, keeping an eye on Kalshi’s prediction markets could provide valuable insights into the potential outcome of this highly anticipated matchup.