- Looking for the best bets to make for the NFC & AFC Championship games?
- I offer my NFL picks for the Conference Championships, along with my SBD formula’s score predictions
- See our NFL Conference Championship picks below
I cannot believe we only have three more games (excluding the Pro Bowl) to bet this NFL season. We had better make the most of what time we have left, starting with the two NFL Conference Championship games on Sunday, January 26. The NFC Championship kicks off first between the Commanders and Eagles at 3pm ET, with the AFC Championship getting underway at 6:30pm ET between the Bills and Chiefs.
My SBD formula has score predictions for both games, and I will also offer my best picks for each. For what it’s worth, my SBD formula went 2-1-1 against the spread last week, while going 2-2 straight up, and 2-2 on over/unders. Here’s who we’re picking for the NFL Conference Championships:
NFL Conference Championship Picks
| Conference Championship Matchup | Computer Prediction | My Pick |
| Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles | PHI 25.7 – 19.3 | Commanders +6 (-105 at BetMGM) |
| Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs | BUF 23.7 – 18.9 | Bills Moneyline (+110 at bet365) |
My SBD formula is taking the Eagles to win the NFC Championship, and barely cover the 6-point spread. It has the Bills upsetting the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. Based on its score predictions, it has both games going under their respective totals.
Those specific predicted scores are worth paying attention to after how accurate it was last week. My SBD formula had the three teams all within one point of their actual team totals, one of those being the Eagles, while it was within 2.5 points on two other teams, one of those being the Bills. It had the Chiefs predicted 4.7 points less than they actually scored. So, do with that info what you will!
NFC Championship Pick: Commanders +6
My SBD formula has the Eagles barely covering this spread, but I am going the other way for a couple different reasons:
- My formula is 3-7-1 against the spread in Philadelphia home games
- My formula has trouble assessing exactly how injured a player is, and determining how that will affect their performance
On the former, the Eagles have often slightly underperformed my formula’s expectations of their offense when playing at home, and it has also overestimated their defense at home. But I don’t put too much stock into this type of trend. It’s the latter that is driving my decision to go against my formula here.
Jalen Hurts did not look good after hurting his knee against the Rams last week. In the 18 snaps that came after the injury, he did not record a real rushing attempt (the one attempt for -1 yards was a kneel-down), and didn’t look great throwing the ball either. We have already seen the difference in this Eagles offense against the Commanders with a healthy/mobile Hurts and no Hurts. Philadelphia was about to take a 14-0 lead with Hurts under center in their Week 16 meeting with Washington, but he got injured and the Commanders were able to come back from being down 21-7.
The Eagles only managed four field goals in the second half of that game with Kenny Pickett under center, as the defense was able to key in on Saquon Barkley. If Hurts is more injured than the Eagles are letting on, which I think is likely the case since he will be wearing a knee brace for the game, Philadelphia’s offense is not going to be as efficient, and will not be able to take full advantage of Washington’s inability to stop the run.
On the other side of the ball, I think Jayden Daniels’ athleticism will help make up for the loss of Sam Cosmi, which is a big one. But this rookie QB appears to be getting better and better with each game he plays, and Matthew Stafford proved last week that this Eagles defense isn’t flawless. I’ll take the Commanders to keep this one close.
- Pick: Commanders +6 (-105 at BetMGM)
AFC Championship Pick: Bills Moneyline
My SBD formula and I do agree on this game, and we feel it’s the Bills’ time. Josh Allen is 0-3 against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, and I’m betting that streak stops Sunday.
The main reason behind me going with Buffalo in this game is the Chiefs offensive line. I think they have holes at two of the five positions and I believe the Bills are constructed well to take advantage of those shortcomings. Whether it’s Von Miller or Greg Rousseau lining up across from Jawaan Taylor, I think they’ll be beating him consistently and pressuring Mahomes. (This could get really bad for the Chiefs if the officials don’t allow Taylor to line up so far off the ball.) But I also think Mike Caliendo is going to struggle against this Bills d-line that has seemingly gotten better as the season has progressed.
On top of that, I think Josh Allen’s strength and mobility, paired with Joe Brady’s play-calling, will be able to neutralize some of the Chiefs pass-rush. With no mouth the Bills have to feed in their offense, I think we’ll see an efficient outing where they continue to simply take what the defense gives them.
- Pick: Bills moneyline (+110 at bet365)
As the NFL playoffs continue to heat up, fans and experts alike are eagerly anticipating the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games. With only four teams left standing, the competition is fierce and the stakes are high.
In the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs will be facing off against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs are coming off a dominant win over the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round, while the Bengals pulled off a stunning upset over the top-seeded Tennessee Titans. Both teams have explosive offenses led by star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow, making this matchup one to watch.
Experts are split on who will come out on top in this game. Some believe that the Chiefs’ experience and home-field advantage will give them the edge, while others think that the Bengals’ momentum and underdog mentality will carry them to victory. Computer simulations also vary in their predictions, with some giving a slight edge to the Chiefs and others favoring the Bengals.
In the NFC, the Los Angeles Rams will be taking on the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams are coming off a convincing win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while the 49ers pulled off a thrilling comeback victory against the Green Bay Packers. Both teams have strong defenses and dynamic playmakers on offense, setting the stage for an exciting showdown.
Experts are leaning towards the Rams in this matchup, citing their star-studded roster and home-field advantage as key factors in their favor. However, the 49ers have been playing with a sense of urgency and determination that could propel them to an upset victory. Computer simulations also predict a close game, with some giving a slight edge to the Rams and others favoring the 49ers.
Ultimately, only time will tell which teams will emerge victorious in the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games. With so much talent and excitement on display, football fans are in for a treat as they watch these high-stakes matchups unfold.
