January 21, 2025

Sport and Betting News

Predictions for Bills vs Chiefs and Commanders vs Eagles Conference Championship Games Against the Spread

14 mins
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are 1.5-point home favorites over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game
  • The Philadelphia Eagles are 4.5-point home chalk over the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game
  • See the best early conference championships picks against the spread for Bills vs Chiefs and Commanders vs Eagles

The 2024-25 conference championship matchups are set. In the NFC, the Washington Commanders will visit the Philadelphia Eagles at 12 pm ET on Sunday, Jan. 26. In the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Buffalo Bills at 6:30 pm ET. The Eagles enter the NFL’s version of the final four as the slight favorites in the Super Bowl odds, followed by the Chiefs, Bills, and longshot Commanders. The table below lists my favorite ATS bets to target for both Commanders vs Eagles and Bills vs Chiefs, along with where to find the best odds.

NFL Conference Championship Picks Against the Spread

Matchup Pick Date/Time
Commanders vs Eagles Eagles -6.5 (+103) at
DraftKings

 Sunday, Jan. 26 (3:00 pm ET)
Bills vs Chiefs Bills +3.5 (-158) at
Caesars 

 Sunday, Jan. 26 (6:30pm ET)

I’m taking one favorite and one underdog in the conference championship games. I’m taking an alternate spread in both games, moving the Eagles to -6.5 to get into plus-money, and the Bills to +3.5 with a little extra juice.

 Odds as of Jan. 20. Download the top Super Bowl betting apps to land a bonus for the 2025 conference championship games. 

Commanders vs Eagles ATS Pick: Eagles -6.5 (+103)

No team has been more impressive that the Washington Commanders (14-5, 7-3 away, ATS) in the 2025 NFL playoffs. Washington went on the road and beat the Buccaneers (23-20) as 3.5-point underdogs, before demolishing the Lions (45-31) as 9.5-point underdogs thanks to a five-takeaway effort from its defense.

But it’s impossible to expect another turnover-happy game from the stingy Philadelphia Eagles (16-3. 10-1 home, ATS), who committed just 15 in the regular season (sixth-fewest in the NFL) and have a 6-to-0 takeaway-to-turnover ratio in the playoffs.

Moreover, both of the regular-season meetings point to Philadelphia being a terrible matchup for the Commanders. While the teams split their regular-season meetings, each winning at home, that comes with a major caveat. The Eagles held a 14-0 lead in Washington in Week 16 when Jalen Hurts left the game with an injury and did not return. The Commanders mounted an improbable fourth-quarter comeback to eke out a 36-33 victory.

The Eagles dominated the Week 11 matchup in Philly, winning 26-18 and outgaining the Commanders 434 yards to 264. Saquon Barkley, who is coming off a franchise playoff record 205 rushing yards against the Rams in the Divisional Round, piled up 296 rushing yards in the pair of regular-season games against Washington.

The Eagles are built for the cold and are going to run roughshod over the Washington front seven for the third time this season.

Bills vs Chiefs ATS Pick: Bills +3.5 (-158)

Every ounce of my soul wants to take the Buffalo Bills (15-4, 5-4 away, ATS) to win straight-up, but betting on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (16-2, 9-0 home, ATS) to lose in the playoffs has been a sure-fire way to go broke over the last five years. Kansas City is riding an eight-game postseason win streak and Mahomes has bested Josh Allen in all three of their playoff meetings.

The Chiefs beat the Bills 27-24 in the Divisional Round last year, 42-36 OT in the Divisional Round in the 2021 season, and 38-24 in the AFC title game in the 2020 season.

Kansas City has been the least-impressive 16-2 team I’ve ever seen, though. The Chiefs finished the regular season with a tepid +59 point differential, which works out to a +3.47 average margin of victory over a 17-game season.

In the Divisional Round, they managed just 212 yards of total offense against Houston. Mahomes was 16-of-25 passing for 162 yards while getting sacked a career-high eight times. 

Buffalo, meanwhile, raced out to a 21-10 halftime lead over the powerhouse Ravens before hanging on for a 27-25 victory, which required a horrendous Mark Andrews on a two-point attempt that would have tied the game with under two minutes to play.

The Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in the regular season but that came at home, where they will finish this year a perfect 10-0 straight-up. They have some quality road wins but are only 5-4 overall in away games, losing to the Ravens (35-10 in Week 4), Texans (23-20 in Week 5), Rams (44-42 in Week 14), and Patriots (23-16 in Week 18).

Buffalo lost safety Taylor Rapp to a hip injury in the Divisional Playoffs and the veteran is questionable for this Sunday. The Bills are already thin at safety.

At the end of the day, I can’t bet on Mahomes and the Chiefs to lost at home, but I firmly expect Buffalo to give them a huge scare, so I’m taking an alt-spread of Buffalo +3.5 at -158 odds at Caesars.

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As the NFL playoffs continue to heat up, fans and bettors alike are eagerly anticipating the upcoming conference championship games. In particular, the matchups between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, as well as the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles, are generating a lot of buzz.

The Bills and Chiefs will face off in what is sure to be a highly competitive game. Both teams have explosive offenses led by star quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, respectively. The Chiefs are coming off a dominant win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the divisional round, while the Bills narrowly defeated the New England Patriots in a thrilling overtime victory.

When it comes to predicting the outcome of this game against the spread, it’s important to consider the strengths and weaknesses of each team. The Chiefs have a potent passing attack with Mahomes at the helm, but their defense has been inconsistent at times. The Bills, on the other hand, have a balanced offense and a solid defense that has been playing well in recent weeks.

In terms of betting trends, the Chiefs are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games as favorites, while the Bills are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games overall. With both teams playing at a high level, this game could go either way, but the Chiefs may have a slight edge at home.

In the other conference championship game, the Commanders will take on the Eagles in what promises to be a hard-fought battle. The Commanders have a strong defense led by rookie sensation Chase Young, while the Eagles have a dynamic rushing attack with Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders leading the way.

When it comes to predicting this game against the spread, it’s worth noting that the Commanders are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as underdogs, while the Eagles are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games overall. Both teams have been playing well down the stretch, so this game could also go either way.

Overall, these conference championship games are shaping up to be exciting matchups with plenty of betting opportunities. Whether you’re rooting for the Bills, Chiefs, Commanders, or Eagles, be sure to do your research and consider all factors before placing your bets. Good luck!

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