Predictions for NFL Divisional Round Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets: TD Props Analysis

• Sportsbooks have made NFL TD props available for all Divisional Round games of the 2024-25 NFL playoffs
• I have taken a deep dive into each of the four games to search for the players I feel are the best bets to score a touchdown  
• See the nine players I am betting to score a TD in the Divisional Round below

The Divisional Round of the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs is upon us, which means we only have four games to choose from for NFL TD scorers. Yet, I feel much more confident in these final eight offenses, and have found nine NFL anytime TD picks for this weekend.

I went 2-3-1 on my picks from last week to win 0.11 units – I ended up voiding on the Estime pick, as he was made inactive. It wasn’t much profit, but it was some. Here’s how I hope to add some more winnings with my NFL TD picks for the Divisional Round!

Best NFL TD Scorer Picks for Divisional Round

I am betting nine players to score a touchdown in the Divisional Round, and each is a half-unit bet, except for Dyami Brown, who I’m risking 0.33 units on, and David Montgomery, who is a full-unit bet. I am betting multiple players from each game except for the Texans at Chiefs, and have a TD scorer from each team except for the Texans.

As is always the case, I focus solely on NFL touchdown scorer bets in this article. If you wanted to see more prop markets for the NFL Divisional Round, check out our NFL props tool, which does the line shopping for you. If you are happy with just TD props for now, you can keep reading below for my justification on each of the nine touchdown picks below.

Xavier Worthy

Did you know Xavier Worthy led the Chiefs in touchdowns this regular season with nine? It was two more than Kareem Hunt (second-most), and five more than DeAndre Hopkins (second-most among wide receivers). Let me tell you why that shouldn’t surprise you, and why he is a good bet to score again on Saturday.

Since Week 13, Worthy has led the Chiefs in red zone looks with 12, which accounts for 22.6% of Kansas City’s red zone looks. The next best in that span is Travis Kelce with 10. But Worthy’s involvement in the red zone has only gotten more impressive as the regular season winded down. From Weeks 15-17, the rookie saw a team-high 11 red zone looks, which comes out to 3.67 per game. (I removed Week 18 because he played one snap.)

Getting Worthy those looks paid off for the Chiefs, as he scored a touchdown in each of those three games. One of those games came against the same Texans team Worthy will see in the Divisional Round. The Week 16 matchup between these two teams saw Worthy get a team-high 11 targets, which he turned into seven catches for 65 yards and a touchdown, as well as three rushing attempts.

The Houston defense has been pretty good this season, ranking 14th in points allowed and 6th in yards allowed. However, they gave up 31 passing touchdowns. While I don’t think the Chiefs will have as much trouble running the ball against the Texans as the Chargers did last week, I do suspect Andy Reid to continue using his team’s speedster in the red zone.

• Pick: Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+220 at FanDuel)

David Montgomery

The odds bet365 are offering on David Montgomery to score a touchdown would suggest he is not going to see many snaps. This very well may be true, but head coach Dan Campbell has explicitly said there will be “a place for him in this game.” Knowing Campbell is such a big fan of Montgomery’s power running style, specifically down in the red zone and goal line area, I believe that will be one of the places where Montgomery is used in this game.

Prior to getting hurt, Montgomery was averaging a team-high 1.21 goal line looks and 3.71 red zone looks per game. He scored a touchdown in ten of 14 games, with one of those misses being the game he left early with injury.

The Washington defense the Lions will face this week ranks 28th in rushing yards allowed per attempt, and gave up 18 touchdowns on the ground. Even if Montgomery doesn’t play that many snaps in this one, I do believe Detroit will want to get him back into his groove as best they can ahead of a potential matchup against a tough Eagles defense.

• Pick: David Montgomery Anytime TD (-138 at bet365)

Sam LaPorta

Prior to Week 11, Sam LaPorta was seeing 0.56 red zone looks per game, which had him tied with Jared Goff (who is not a threat with his legs whatsoever) for fifth-best on the team. Even if we limit that stat to just red zone targets, the second-year tight end was only seeing 13.5% of Detroit’s red zone targets, which was tied with Jameson Williams for third, and well behind Amon-Ra St Brown, who was seeing 32.4% through the first 11 weeks.

But he also wasn’t seeing the ball much outside of the red zone either. LaPorta was averaging a measly 2.8 targets per game through the first six weeks of the season. The result was just three touchdowns in the first nine games of the season.

However, things changed for LaPorta after he missed their Week 11 game. Since Week 12, he is seeing 1.71 red zone looks per game and 25.5% of the team’s red zone targets. He’s also being used much more outside of the red zone, seeing an average of 7.3 targets per game since Week 12. The result has been at least one TD in three of his last seven games, and a total of four touchdowns in that span.

I think LaPorta’s usage remains high in their first playoff game, especially as Washington commits more and more players to trying to stop Detroit’s powerful run game. I like LaPorta at this price to score a touchdown off some play-action in the red zone.

• Pick: Sam LaPorta Anytime TD (+155 at DraftKings)

Terry McLaurin

After he cashed for me last week, I’m coming back to Terry McLaurin again in the Divisional Round. His opponent gets much tougher in the Lions, but I actually think that may help his chances of scoring a touchdown, as I expect Washington to be playing with a negative game script pretty early in this one.

McLaurin led his team in touchdowns this regular season with 13, and (as mentioned above) added another one in the first round of the playoffs last week. He has at least one TD in ten of 18 games played this season, both regular season and playoffs, which includes a TD in six of his last seven games.

This hot streak of touchdowns for McLaurin is no coincidence, though. Prior to Week 12, the veteran WR was averaging 0.09 goal line looks (within the five-yard-line) and 0.73 red zone looks per game. Since Week 12, those averages have jumped to 0.71 and 1.29, respectively. Washington is looking to McLaurin often when trying to cap off a drive in the endzone, and it has been working.

It may not come until garbage time against a tough Lions defense, but I do like McLaurin to score another touchdown Saturday night.

• Pick: Terry McLaurin Anytime TD (+140 at FanDuel)

Dyami Brown

When Noah Brown got hurt, it was Olamide Zaccheaus who originally stepped into the WR2 role. He had a couple nice games before a pretty inefficient showing in Week 18, where he dropped a touchdown that was right in his hands. I was betting Zaccheaus to have a good game last week. Instead, he saw three targets that he turned into just 19 yards.

Meanwhile, it seems Dyami Brown is the receiver who has Jayden Daniels’ attention now. Brown still only played 62% of Washington’s offensive snaps, but he impressed when he was out there. The fourth-year receiver hauled in all five of his targets for 89 yards and a touchdown, while making some big plays for his offense.

I think the Commanders will be forced to give Brown some extra opportunities against the Lions on Saturday night, and I like the former third-round pick to make some more plays. (Garbage time could really help too!)

• Pick: Dyami Brown Anytime TD (+360 at FanDuel)

Jalen Hurts

The fact that sportsbooks continue to price Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley so differently when it comes to anytime TD odds is crazy to me, and I am going to take advantage of Hurts’ longer TD odds in the Divisional Round against the Rams.

Hurts finished the regular season with one less touchdown than Barkley, but he played one less game. Hurts scored at least one touchdown in ten of 15 regular season games, while Barkley only scored a touchdown in eight of 16 regular season games. Neither player scored a touchdown in their playoff game last week.

Barkley has a slight advantage when it comes to red zone looks, seeing 3.88 per game comapred to Hurts’ 3.13. However, Hurts has the advantage when it comes to goal line looks, seeing 1.19 per game compared to Barkley’s 1.06. I appreciate Barkley is much more likely to score a TD than Hurts from outside of the red zone, but this is an Eagles offense that averages four red zone drives per game, which is tied for third-most in the NFL. So, even if Saquon (or someone else) breaks a big one, I am confident there will still be some red zone opportunities for Hurts.

The Rams gave up 4.8 yards per carry against the Vikings last week, and I believe Philadelphia will be able to slowly and methodically work the ball down the field, with at least one of those drives ending with Hurts in the endzone.

• Pick: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-110 at FanDuel)

Kyren Williams

I certainly don’t love betting on the Eagles defense, who finished the regular season allowing the second-fewest points in the league, to give up touchdowns. However, I cannot pass on this price for Kyren Williams to score a touchdown.

Williams absolutely dominates LA’s red zone looks and goal line looks. He is averaging 4.41 red zone looks per game, where the next best on the team is Puka Nacua with 1.42, and 1.35 goal line looks, with the next best being Demarcus Robinson with 0.33. Williams even sees 12.7% of the Rams’ red zone targets, which is tied for third, where Nacua is the high at 16.5%.

When the Rams enter the red zone, Williams is seeing the ball. This has led to at least one TD for Williams in 13 of 17 games, and a total of 17 touchdowns this season (regular season and playoffs). Plus, when these two teams met in Week 12, Williams had a decent day, totaling 72 yards on just 16 carries and did find the endzone – though, he did fumble twice.

• Pick: Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-105 at bet365)

James Cook

Similar to my last pick, I don’t love betting running backs who don’t have a firm role in the passing game to score touchdowns against the Ravens defense. Baltimore has only allowed 12 rushing touchdowns this season and allow the fewest yards per carry in the league.

However, I believe the Bills will be forced to use James Cook in the passing game after not targeting him at all over their last three games. Cook is arguably their best playmaker, and getting him the ball in space will be crucial to Buffalo’s chances of winning this game. I also think the threat of Josh Allen’s legs in the red zone will help Cook find a little bit of running room against a stingy run defense.

Cook averages 3.35 red zone looks as well as 1.0 goal line looks per game this season (regular and post-season), which are both team-highs by a healthy margin. The RB has scored a touchdown in 13 of 17 games this season and has a total of 19 TDs. Again, similar to my last pick, I just can’t turn down this price on Cook to score a TD.

• Pick: James Cook Anytime TD (+105 at BetMGM)

Mark Andrews

Last Saturday marked the first game since Week 11 where Mark Andrews did not score a touchdown, and just the third time since Week 5. Lamar Jackson only throwing the ball 21 times certainly had something to do with this.

I’m not here to say Jackson is going to be forced to put the ball in the air a lot more than that – especially considering he attempted his third-fewest passes this season when he played Buffalo in Week 4 – but I don’t think he will need to for Andrews to score a touchdown.

The Bills have only given up 13 rushing touchdowns versus 29 passing touchdowns through their 18 games. I believe Sean McDermott will ensure he is committing plenty of players towards stopping the run in general, but especially in the red zone / goal line situations, after Derrick Henry rushed for 199 yards and scored two touchdowns when they met earlier this year.

Baltimore will take what they’re given, which I believe will be a wide open Mark Andrews off play-action. Andrews sees a team-high 23.8% of the Ravens’ red zone targets, and I like that to continue against the Bills, ultimately leading to another touchdown for the veteran.

• Pick: Mark Andrews Anytime TD (+175 at BetMGM)

As the NFL Divisional Round approaches, many football fans and bettors are eagerly anticipating the matchups and looking to place bets on anytime touchdown scorers. With some of the league’s top offensive talents set to take the field, there are plenty of intriguing options to consider when it comes to touchdown props.

One player who is always a popular choice for anytime touchdown scorer bets is Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has proven time and time again that he is capable of finding the end zone both through the air and on the ground. With weapons like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce at his disposal, Mahomes is always a threat to score a touchdown in any game.

Another player to keep an eye on in the Divisional Round is Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams. Adams has been one of the most consistent and productive receivers in the league this season, leading the Packers in both receptions and receiving yards. With his ability to make big plays in the red zone, Adams is a strong candidate to score a touchdown in the upcoming playoff game.

On the defensive side of the ball, players like Los Angeles Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey and Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Devin White could also be worth considering for anytime touchdown scorer bets. Both players have shown a knack for making game-changing plays, whether it be interceptions or fumble recoveries that result in touchdowns.

When placing bets on anytime touchdown scorers, it’s important to consider factors such as each team’s offensive game plan, red zone efficiency, and individual player matchups. Additionally, keeping an eye on injury reports and weather conditions can also help inform your betting decisions.

Overall, the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs promises to be an exciting and competitive weekend of football. With so many talented players set to take the field, there are plenty of opportunities for bettors to cash in on anytime touchdown scorer props. By doing your research and staying informed on the latest developments, you can increase your chances of making successful bets in this round of the playoffs.