Predictions and Odds for Bill Belichick’s First Season Win Total in North Carolina

• How many games will Bill Belichick’s North Carolina win in 2024-25?
• UNC’s win total is available to bet at online sportsbooks
• Read below for UNC win total odds and predictions for Bill Belichick’s debut season

Bill Belichick shocked the football world in December by accepting the head coaching job at North Carolina. Coach Bill is leaving the pro ranks to tackle the college game for the first time in his career. Oddsmakers have already posted a win total for Bill’s first season in Chapel Hill.

Belichick inked a five-year, $50 million deal to lead the Tar Heels, who are coming off a disappointing 6-7 campaign in 2024. The six-time Super Bowl champ is looking to bring some of that Patriots magic to UNC and get this program back on track.

The big question is – how many games can Belichick win right away? Online sportsbooks have set the bar, releasing North Carolina’s 2025 regular season win total. Let’s dive in and see if Coach Bill and the Heels are worth a wager.

North Carolina 2025 Regular Season Win Total

Odds from DraftKings North Carolina as of January 16, 2025. UNC residents can bet on this prop market with the DraftKings North Carolina Promo Code.

Oddsmakers have tabbed UNC’s win total at 7.5 for Belichick’s debut season. The over is priced as an underdog at +124, while it’s -158 to bet the under. That’s a 61% implied probability of 7 wins or less.

Based on these odds, sportsbooks are showing some skepticism that Coach Bill can engineer a major turnaround right off the bat.

Belichick Accepts Coaching Job

So, what exactly convinced Bill Belichick to leave his well-paying TV gig for Chapel Hill? Let’s start with the big one: money. UNC backed up the Brinks truck, giving the coaching icon a five-year, $50 million contract. Only the first three years are fully guaranteed, though.

Interestingly, Belichick’s buyout drops significantly from $10 million to just $1 million after June 1st, 2025. This stipulation leaves the door open for a potential NFL return if the right opportunity arises. Still, Coach Bill insists he’s committed to building a winner at North Carolina.

“This is where [Bill Belichick] wants to be.”

@mlombardiNFL tells @PatMcAfeeShow that Bill Belichick is “committed” to UNC and is not going anywhere ✅ pic.twitter.com/l59W3dPRGD

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) January 16, 2025

Coach Bill wasted no time assembling his staff, bringing in several familiar faces from his Patriots days. Former Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens joins as offensive coordinator, while Belichick’s son Steve will run the defense.

Belichick also lured highly-regarded strength coach Moses Cabrera to oversee the team’s conditioning program. With a mix of NFL experience and fresh ideas, Belichick’s staff looks well-equipped for the college game.

North Carolina 2024 Season Review

There’s no sugarcoating it; the Tar Heels are coming off a rough 2024 season. UNC limped to a 6-7 record, lowlighted by an ugly 70-50 home loss to FCS James Madison. That brutal defeat marked the most points ever allowed at Kenan Stadium.

The low point came when former coach Mack Brown nearly resigned mid-season before later retracting his statement. The Tar Heels ended the year on a sour note, falling 27-14 to UConn in the Fenway Bowl.

Statistically, the offense averaged 397.8 yards per game (51st nationally) and put up 29.8 points per game (45th). Defensively, the Tar Heels gave up almost as much as they gained—393.2 yards (81st) and 29.6 points (89th) per contest.

UNC did boast a solid pass rush, ranking 4th nationally with a 9.95% sack rate. However, penalties and turnovers were major issues, ranking 104th in flags per game (6.8) and 90th in turnover margin (-0.3/game). Belichick will no doubt look to clean up those sloppy mistakes.

Looking Ahead to 2025

The Tar Heels face significant roster turnover, as star RB Omarion Hampton has declared for the 2025 NFL Draft after an electric career. Hampton finished second nationally with 1,660 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns in 2024, ending his UNC career with 3,565 yards and 36 TDs.

Thank you Chapel Hill 🙏🏽 pic.twitter.com/2X1khP9EPI

— Omarion Hampton (@OmarionHampton) December 16, 2024

The QB situation is in flux after Jacolby Criswell entered the transfer portal. However, incoming four-star quarterback Bryce Baker has affirmed his commitment following Belichick’s hiring. The 6-foot-3 dual-threat passer from Kernersville ranks as ESPN’s No. 4 QB and No. 193 overall prospect for 2025.

Belichick’s arrival has made Chapel Hill an extremely attractive destination for transfer portal talent. With his NFL pedigree and championship experience, expect the Tar Heels to be aggressive in adding instant-impact transfers before spring practice begins.

North Carolina 2025 Schedule

Coach Bill has his work cut out for him in year one. Road dates at UCF and NC State are no gimmes, while ACC opponents like Clemson and Wake Forest will provide major tests.

Tar Heels 2025 Win Total Prediction

When it comes to betting UNC’s win total, I’m leaning towards taking the over 7.5 at plus money. With a mastermind like Belichick now running the show, I expect a much more disciplined Tar Heels squad in 2025.

Non-conference tilts against Charlotte and Richmond should be victories. From there, UNC likely needs to go 6-4 in ACC play to hit the over. While replacing Hampton’s production won’t be easy, Belichick has a proven track record of maximizing talent.

Belichick’s arrival makes Chapel Hill one of the most intriguing transfer destinations in college football. The roster will likely look significantly different by spring practice, as top players will be eager to play for the six-time Super Bowl champion. Keep in mind, the ACC is wide open, with many programs in transition.

UNC’s 6-7 season is fresh in people’s minds, but remember, the Tar Heels hit 8 wins in three of four seasons before 2024. At +124 odds, there’s value in betting on Belichick to engineer a fast turnaround. I’m taking the Tar Heels over 7.5 wins in Coach Belichick’s first year at the helm.

• Pick: UNC Over 7.5 Wins (+124)

Bill Belichick, the legendary head coach of the New England Patriots, has recently made a surprising move by accepting the head coaching position for the North Carolina Tar Heels football team. This unexpected decision has sparked a lot of speculation and excitement among football fans and analysts alike.

As Belichick prepares to embark on his first season with the Tar Heels, many are wondering what his win total will be. Given his track record of success in the NFL, it’s safe to say that expectations are high for Belichick to turn around the struggling North Carolina program.

However, it’s important to note that college football is a different beast compared to the NFL. Belichick will have to adjust to recruiting players, managing a larger roster, and dealing with the pressures of coaching young athletes. That being said, Belichick’s football acumen and strategic mind are second to none, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him excel in the college ranks as well.

In terms of predictions and odds for Belichick’s first season win total in North Carolina, it’s difficult to say for certain. The Tar Heels have had a mixed track record in recent years, so it’s unclear how quickly Belichick will be able to turn things around. However, given his reputation as a master tactician and motivator, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for him to lead the Tar Heels to a successful season.

As for odds, it’s likely that sportsbooks will set the over/under for Belichick’s first season win total at around 7 or 8 wins. This would be a respectable number for a first-year coach in college football, especially considering the challenges that come with transitioning from the NFL.

Overall, while it’s impossible to predict with certainty how many games Belichick will win in his first season at North Carolina, one thing is for sure: football fans will be eagerly watching to see how he fares in his new role and whether he can continue his winning ways in the college ranks.