Early Predictions for All Four Divisional Round NFL Playoff Games Against the Spread

• The four NFL Divisional Round matchups are set for the 2025 playoffs
• After opening as 1.5-point home favorites, the Bills are already 1.5-point home underdogs to the Ravens
• Below, see my Divisional Round picks against the spread to target early in the week

The 2025 NFL playoffs are down to just eight teams as we enter the Divisional Round. The AFC is almost a do-over from last year with the same four teams reaching the conference semis (though in different combinations). In the NFC, only one team – the Detroit Lions – is back in the Divisional Round for a second straight season. The table below lists my favorite Divisional Round ATS picks to target early in the week.

NFL Divisional Round Picks Against the Spread

Against prevailing trends this postseason, I am taking three road teams to cover in the Divisional Round. So far in the 2025 NFL playoffs, home teams – including the Rams as the nominal home side in Arizona against the Vikings – are 5-1 both straight-up and against the spread. No losing team came close to covering the spread in the Wild Card Round.

 Odds as of Jan. 14. See SBD’s list of the best sports betting promotions for the NFL Divisional Round this weekend. 

Texans vs Chiefs ATS Pick: Houston +8.0

The Texans vs Chiefs spread opened at Kansas City -7.5 and has moved up incrementally over the last 48 hours. The Chiefs (15-2, 8-0 home) won by exactly eight when these teams met at Arrowhead late in the regular season (27-19) but that outcome could have been very different if the Texans (11-7, 5-4 away) don’t commit the only two turnovers of the game, or if they don’t commit six penalties to KC’s two.

The Chiefs have had a nice, long rest as the AFC’s #1 seed, and the last time they had their actual first-string players on the field, they dominated Pittsburgh (29-10) in Week 17. But overall, Kansas City was arguably the least-impressive two-loss team in NFL history. They went just 8-9 against the spread (3-5 at home) and had a +59 point differential, 11th-best in the NFL. That amounts to just +3.47  per game over the 17-game season.

Houston showed last week that their defense is still elite, holding the Chargers to just 261 total yards while intercepting Justin Herbert four times. They’re not going to generate four picks against Patrick Mahomes, but the Danielle Hunter/Will Anderson Jr-led pass rush will be disruptive, and their seventh-ranked coverage unit will limit the big plays. All of that will amount to a closer game than oddsmakers are projecting.

Commanders vs Lions ATS Pick: Commanders +10.0

Like the Chiefs over in the AFC, NFC #1-seed Detroit (15-2, 7-2 home) opened as a 7.5-point favorite over Washington (13-5, 6-3 away) in the Divisional Round, and I was stunned to see that grow by 2.5 points to a full 10.0 as of Tuesday morning.

Detroit absolutely dismantled Minnesota’s Sam Darnold-led offense in their monumental Week 18 clash to retain the top-seed in the conference. The Vikings were also routed by the Rams in the Wild Card Round, though, and there’s a strong argument to be made that Darnold was playing over his head the vast majority of the season.

I don’t have a lot of negative things to say about Dan Campbell’s Lions. The offense is scary-good and the injury-riddled defense is showing remarkable resilience. The Commanders are a solid team on both sides of the ball and, as their 23-20 road win at the Bucs showed last Sunday, they have half-a-dozen ways to move the ball. I expect the Lions’ defense to do enough to win the game but not to cover a double-digit spread.

Rams vs Eagles ATS Pick: Rams +6.0

If the LA defense is going to play like it did against Minnesota, then Matthew Stafford and the Rams (10-7, 5-3 away) have to be seen as a bigger threat in the Super Bowl 59 odds, where they remain +1800 longshots. The 27-9 defensively-dominant win shouldn’t have come as a huge surprise; going back to the regular season, the Rams have held four straight opponents to single-digits (excluding their Week 18 loss to Seattle when they rested starters).

The Eagles (15-3, 9-1 home) also put on a defensive clinic in their 22-10 win over Green Bay in the Wild Card Round. I haven’t seen enough from the Eagles’ offense lately to bet on them to cover a sizable spread, though, not against a defense playing as well as LA’s.

Ravens vs Bills ATS Pick: Bills -1.5 (+110)

The Bills (14-4, 9-0 home) opened as slight 1.5-point home favorites in the Divisional Round, but it took less than a day for betting action to push the Ravens (13-5, 6-3 away) to road favorites.

I’m not buying that line movement. Buffalo has one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL and hasn’t lost at home all season, including a 30-21 win over Kansas City, the only loss the Chiefs suffered with the starters this season. They are 13-1 at home in their last 14 games dating back to last season, with the only loss coming by a field-goal to the two-time defending Super Bowl-champion Chiefs (27-24) in last year’s Divisional Round.

Yes, the Ravens dominated the Bills when the teams met in Baltimore in Week 4 (35-10). The Buffalo defense has healed up of late and is playing as well as it has all season. In the Wild Card, they limited the Broncos to just 224 total yards (145 passing and 79 rushing) in a thoroughly complete performance.

In what I expect to be a tight, back-and-forth game, I love the value on Buffalo to cover 1.5 points at plus-money.

Bookmark SBD’s NFL public betting splits to see the latest line movement and where the public money is going.

As the NFL playoffs continue to heat up, fans and bettors alike are eagerly anticipating the divisional round matchups. With just eight teams left standing, the competition is fierce and the stakes are high. Here are some early predictions for all four divisional round games against the spread:

1. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
The Chiefs are coming off a dominant performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild card round, while the Bills narrowly escaped with a win over the New England Patriots. The Chiefs are currently favored by 2.5 points in this matchup, and it’s easy to see why. With Patrick Mahomes leading the offense and a strong defense to back him up, the Chiefs are a tough team to beat. The Bills will need to bring their A-game if they want to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Chiefs -2.5

2. Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Titans pulled off a stunning upset over the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs in the wild card round, while the Bengals took down the Las Vegas Raiders in a close game. The Titans are favored by 3.5 points in this matchup, and with Derrick Henry back in the lineup, they have a strong chance of covering the spread. However, Joe Burrow and the Bengals have been playing lights out lately, so this game could go either way.

Prediction: Titans -3.5

3. Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Packers are coming off a bye week and are well-rested for their matchup against the 49ers, who defeated the Dallas Cowboys in the wild card round. The Packers are currently favored by 6 points in this game, and with Aaron Rodgers leading the offense, they have a good chance of covering the spread. However, the 49ers have a strong defense and could make things interesting.

Prediction: Packers -6

4. Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Rams are coming off a convincing win over the Arizona Cardinals in the wild card round, while the Buccaneers defeated the Philadelphia Eagles. The Buccaneers are currently favored by 3 points in this matchup, but with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp leading the Rams’ offense, they have a good chance of covering the spread. However, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are always dangerous in the playoffs.

Prediction: Rams +3

Overall, the divisional round matchups promise to be exciting and unpredictable. With so much on the line, anything can happen in these games. It will be interesting to see how these early predictions hold up as game day approaches.