Conservatives Leading in Canadian Election Odds for 2025, Ahead of Liberals and NDP

• The next Canadian federal election will take place no later than October 20, 2025
• Embattled PM Justin Trudeau is stepping down as leader of the Liberal Party
• Below, see the odds to win the next Canadian election, odds to lead the Liberal Party, and odds to be the official opposition

In power for nearly a decade and languishing in the polls, embattled Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is stepping down as head of the Liberals once his party chooses a new leader. The next federal election must take place no later than October 20, 2025, and given the Conservative Party’s massive lead in the polls, the odds to win the next Canadian election heavily favor Pierre Poilievre and company.

Jump to: Election Odds | Official Opposition Odds | Next Liberal Leader Odds

Odds to Win Next Canadian Election

Election odds don’t get much uglier than this for the incumbents. The latest prices from FanDuel Ontario list the Conservatives as staggeringly short -4000 favorites to be sworn in as the governing party after the 2025 federal election. That amounts to a 97.56% implied win probability.

  Canadian federal election from FanDuel.ca on Jan. 13. Claim the latest FanDuel promo code to get a sign-up bonus. 

The Liberals remain the second-favorite but at a long +1600 (5.88% implied win probability) with the NDP at +7500 (1.32%) and “any other party” at +10000 (0.99%).

The latest poll aggregator from CBC shows why the Conservatives are such massive chalk; they lead the Liberals by nearly 25 percentage points. Poilievre and the Conservatives are sitting at 44.2% support with the Liberals a distant second at 20.1%, narrowly ahead of Jagmeet Singh and the NDP at 19.3%.

The Bloc Québécois, which exclusively runs candidates in the province of Quebec, is at 8.5% with Elizabeth May and the Greens at just 4.1%. CBC projects that, if the election were held today, the Conservatives would win a landslide majority with 227 seats. (Only 172 are needed to form a majority government.)

Odds to Be Official Opposition

The odds to be the official opposition are perhaps the starkest illustration of the Liberals’ dire straits. Despite sitting second in terms of national support, the Liberals are +125 underdogs to even win the second-most seats in the 2025 federal election. The Bloc is currently the -195 favorite to form the official opposition, which is simply the party which holds the second-highest number of seats in the House of Commons.

This is the one prop where I, personally, see a ton of value on the Liberals. The latest CBC estimates have the Liberals, who are at a nadir of popularity, still winning 44 seats, slightly ahead of the Bloc with 41. The Bloc, remember, will only contest the 78 ridings in Quebec. And the Liberals really have nowhere to go but up once Trudeau is replaced by someone less polemical.

The election of Donald Trump in the United States is also a potential boon to the Liberals and NDP, especially with Trump’s annexation rhetoric seeping over the 49th parallel. Poilievre and the Conservatives are viewed as Trump-lite and, though they may be the most-likely to form the next Canadian government, the idea of joining the United States is not a popular one north of the border. An Angus Reid poll after Trump’s “51st state” comments showed just 6% of Canadians supported joining the US.

Odds to Be Next Liberal Party Leader

The odds to win the leadership of the Liberal Party post-Trudeau are an interesting mix. The odds-on favorite is currently Mark Carney, who was the governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, and then held that same position with the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020. The Harvard/Oxford-educated economist has never run for public office.

The second-favorite is former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. The longtime MP from the University—Rosedale district in Ontario is largely responsible for Trudeau’s resignation. When she resigned as Deputy PM in December, Poilievre and Singh called for a vote of no confidence with respect to Trudeau, which is what led to him stepping down.

In the lead-up to the 2025 Canadian federal election, political analysts and betting odds are pointing towards a potential victory for the Conservative Party. As the campaign season heats up, it appears that the Conservatives are gaining momentum and are currently leading in the polls ahead of the incumbent Liberals and the New Democratic Party (NDP).

One of the key factors contributing to the Conservatives’ strong position in the election odds is the leadership of their party. With a charismatic and experienced leader at the helm, the Conservatives have been able to effectively communicate their message and connect with voters across the country. This has helped to solidify their base of support and attract new voters who may be disillusioned with the current government.

Additionally, the Conservatives have been able to capitalize on issues that resonate with Canadians, such as economic growth, job creation, and national security. By focusing on these key priorities, the party has been able to appeal to a wide range of voters and position themselves as a viable alternative to the status quo.

On the other hand, the Liberals and NDP have faced challenges in gaining traction with voters. The Liberals, despite their incumbency, have been plagued by scandals and controversies that have eroded public trust in their leadership. The NDP, while traditionally a strong contender in Canadian politics, has struggled to gain momentum and differentiate themselves from the other parties.

As the election draws closer, it will be interesting to see how the political landscape evolves and whether the Conservatives can maintain their lead in the polls. With a strong campaign strategy and a focus on key issues that matter to Canadians, they may be able to secure a victory in 2025 and form the next government of Canada. However, as we have seen in past elections, anything can happen in politics, and it will ultimately be up to the voters to decide the outcome on election day.