- We’ve made our Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction for Wild Card Weekend
- The over/under is set at 50.5 points, the highest total of any Wild Card game
- Read below for our Commanders vs Buccaneers betting odds, prediction, and expert pick
The Washington Commanders (12-5) head to Raymond James Stadium to battle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) on Sunday Night Football to wrap up Wild Card weekend. Both teams enter the playoffs riding hot streaks, with the Bucs winning 6 of their last 8 and the Commanders closing the regular season on a 5-game winning streak.
This matchup is a rematch from Week 1, when Tampa Bay handled Washington 37-20 as 4-point home favorites. That game sailed over the total of 41.5 points. Offensive fireworks could be in store once again as the Buccaneers and Commanders ranked 4th and 5th, respectively in scoring offense this season.
Here is a look at our Commanders vs Buccaneers betting preview, including odds, trends and a prediction for this Wild Card showdown.
Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | +3 (-110) | +140 | Over 50.5 (-110) |
| Buccaneers | -3 (-110) | -165 | Under 50.5 (-110) |
The Commanders vs Buccaneers odds show Tampa Bay as 3-point home favorites, which equates to a 58.7% implied win probability. The Bucs need to win by at least 4 points to cover the spread.
Tampa Bay opened as 3.5-point chalk before early Commander money dropped the line to the key number of 3.
The total opened at 49.5 points and has risen to 50.5 thanks to an influx of over money. Sharp bettors appear to be expecting a high-scoring shootout between quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Jayden Daniels.
Odds current as of January 10, 2025 at ESPN Bet. Browse the latest NFL betting odds here.
Commanders Betting Outlook & Stats
Washington rode a dominant ground game and steady improvement from rookie QB Jayden Daniels to an NFC wild-card berth. Daniels set rookie records for completion percentage (69%) and rushing yards (891) by a QB. RB Brian Robinson also had a career year, totaling 799 yards and 8 TDs.
Jayden Daniels: PFF’s Offensive Rookie of the Year
🏆 89.6 PFF Grade (5th among all QBs)
🏆 The most valuable rookie, per PFF WAR
🏆 4,459 total yards (4th all time by rookie) pic.twitter.com/cK5C5HtJYr
— PFF (@PFF) January 8, 2025
The Commanders rank 7th in total offense (369.6 ypg) and 5th in scoring (28.5 ppg). They are extremely balanced, ranking in the top-5 in both rushing and passing DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. Daniels’ dual-threat ability has made this offense very difficult to defend.
On the other side of the ball, Washington’s pass defense has been elite. They allow the 3rd-fewest passing yards at just 189.8 per game. However, their run defense is a major weakness, ranking 29th while surrendering 137.1 yards per contest. Tampa’s rushing attack could feast.
Buccaneers Betting Outlook & Stats
Led by a resurgent Baker Mayfield, the Buccaneers boast one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. They rank 3rd in total offense (399.5 ypg) and 4th in scoring (32 ppg). Mayfield is coming off a spectacular season in which he threw for over 4,500 yards with 41 touchdowns.
Baker Mayfield was cooking up career highs this season. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/agpbGDHPcw
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 10, 2025
Tampa Bay’s rushing attack has been equally potent thanks to the emergence of rookie RB Bucky Irving. The 2nd round pick out of Minnesota racked up over 1,100 yards on the ground with 8 TDs. As a team, the Bucs rank 4th in rushing at 149.1 yards per game.
Defensively, Tampa Bay has been stout against the run but suspect versus the pass. They allow the 4th-fewest rushing yards (97.8 ypg) but rank 29th against the pass (243.9 ypg). This sets up an intriguing matchup against Washington’s balanced offensive attack.
Buccaneers vs Commanders Wild Card Prediction
With two high-octane offenses and a couple of generous defenses, I expect this game to light up the scoreboard on Sunday night. The Buccaneers and Commanders combined for 57 points in their Week 1 meeting, and that was before Jayden Daniels really hit his stride. I’m counting on the rookie to fare much better in his playoff debut.
Tampa Bay’s pass defense is very banged up and will have a tough time containing Terry McLaurin, who went over 1,000 yards receiving this year. The Bucs also struggle mightily to stop mobile QBs. Daniels could have a huge game both through the air and on the ground.
Terry McLaurin puts himself in Washington’s record books! 🔥#RaiseHail pic.twitter.com/9sypr8Y7SK
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 5, 2025
While I give a slight edge to the Bucs at home, I don’t have a strong lean on the side. However, I do love the Over 50.5 points as my best bet. Tampa has gone Over in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 overall. With Mayfield and Daniels trading haymakers, this one should fly Over the total.
Let’s sit back and watch these QBs light up the Raymond James Stadium scoreboard. Give me a 33-27 type of game.
Commanders vs Buccaneers Pick:
- Over 50.5 Points (-110)
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The highly anticipated matchup between the Commanders and Buccaneers on January 12 is sure to be a thrilling game for football fans and bettors alike. With both teams boasting talented rosters and strong performances throughout the season, this game is shaping up to be a close and competitive battle.
When it comes to betting on this game, there are a few key factors to consider. The odds for this matchup are currently favoring the Buccaneers, with most sportsbooks listing them as the favorites to win. However, the Commanders have shown that they are a formidable opponent and should not be underestimated.
In terms of predictions, many experts believe that this game will come down to the wire, with both teams having the potential to come out on top. The Commanders have a strong defense that could give the Buccaneers’ offense some trouble, while the Buccaneers have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Tom Brady.
When it comes to placing bets on this game, there are a few top bets to consider. One popular bet is the over/under, which allows bettors to wager on whether the total points scored in the game will be over or under a certain number. Another popular bet is the point spread, which gives one team a handicap in order to even out the odds.
Overall, the Commanders vs Buccaneers game on January 12 is sure to be an exciting matchup for both fans and bettors. With strong teams on both sides and plenty of betting options available, this game is shaping up to be a must-watch event for football enthusiasts.