Big Ten Championship: Penn State vs Oregon Prediction, Pick & Odds

• #3 Penn State and #1 Oregon play in the 2024 Big Ten Championship
• The Ducks are 3.5-point favorites over the Nittany Lions
• Keep reading for the latest Penn State vs Oregon odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday, December 7

A first-round bye is on the line as Penn State and Oregon battle for the Big Ten Championship. The winner of the Big Ten will be the one or two-seed in the CFP bracket. The loser will likely be the five-seed and host a home playoff game. Kickoff for this highly-anticipated matchup is scheduled for 8 pm ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

With this being Oregon’s first season in the conference, these two programs have not played much. This will be just the fifth time these teams have played and the first since the Rose Bowl in 1995 where Penn State won 38-20. The Nittany Lions lead the all-time series 3-1.

See below for the latest Penn State vs Oregon odds and my picks and prediction for the 2024 Big Ten Championship.

Penn State vs Oregon Odds

The college football odds list #1 Oregon as a 3.5-point favorite over Penn State. This line has not moved since opening. The O/U is set at 50.5 but was 49.5 earlier in the week.

Odds as of Friday, December 6 at BetMGM. Claim the best BetMGM promo code before placing your Penn State vs Oregon bets.

Penn State Betting Trends

Penn State is playing with house money in this game. No one expected them to be here, but since Michigan upset Ohio State last week, the Nittany Lions now have a shot at the Big Ten title.

The 11-1 Nittany Lions have a 6-6 record against the spread, but they have covered in four of their last six games. The big story in this game for Penn State is whether or not James Franklin can finally win a big game. Franklin is 1-13  straight up in his career against top-five teams. He has also not done great as an underdog as he is 0-9 SU and 2-7 against the spread in those games.

Still, this Penn State team is talented and has a real shot in this game with their defense. The Nittany Lions are the fourth-ranked defense in college football. They are sixth in the country and second in the Big Ten in scoring defense, allowing just 14 points per game, and they are also fourth in the conference in total sacks. In order to be Big Ten champions, the Nittany Lion defense will need to come to play against Oregon’s explosive offense.

Lucas Oil Stadium is looking a bit different 🤩#B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/S3pNwy5dTg

— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) December 6, 2024

Unlike some Penn State teams in the past, it is not all about the defense. They still are not flashy, but they average 5 yards per carry and quarterback Drew Allar completes 71% of his passes. Tight end Tyler Warren is as reliable as they come when it comes to catching the ball. They control the time of possession and do not turn the ball over. That method has led them to fourth in the Big Ten in scoring with 33.3 points per game.

Oregon Betting Trends

In their first year in the conference, the Oregon Ducks ran the table in the Big Ten to make it to the championship game. Oregon has been the #1 team in the country for five weeks now and just continue to rattle off wins. Their biggest victory of the season was a 32-31 thriller against Ohio State in October.

Oregon has covered the spread in six of their 12 games, but they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven. They are known for their explosive offense with Dillon Gabriel and Tez Johnson, but their defense has also been elite. The Ducks allow just 283.8 yards and 16.2 points per game. On offense, the Ducks average 35.2 points and have scored 35 points or more in five of their last six games.

Unlike James Franklin, Dan Lanning has won some big games, but he did lose to Washington twice last season, once in the Pac 12 Championship game. This game will be the toughest test Oregon has faced this season as they have to travel for this one.

Big Ten Championship Prediction

The Big Ten Championship has a chance to be the game of the weekend. Even though both teams are locked into a College Football Playoff spot, this game is still meaningful for both programs.

Penn State running back Nicholas Singleton is averaging over six yards per carry, and the weak spot of this Oregon defense is their ability to stop the run. They allow 112 rushing yards per game and are in the middle of the Big Ten in rush defense. The Nittany Lions have a good shot at controlling this game up front like they want to do.

They are also fifth in the Big Ten in rushing defense, so Oregon will have a difficult time moving the ball on the ground. This will open up their ability to generate pressure on Dillon Gabriel, and that is the recipe Penn State needs to follow in order to become Big Ten champions.

Oregon’s offense does have an explosiveness factor that Penn State’s offense does not, so this game could potentially open up with a big play or two. However, I am trusting this Penn State defense. Outside of Ohio State, the Ducks have not played many teams of Penn State’s caliber. They also have to travel all the way from Eugene to Indianapolis.

It is a little worrisome backing James Franklin in this spot, but I am betting on the team playing with house money getting over a field goal with a travel advantage. Points should be at a premium with these two defenses, so I also like getting points with the better run game. Give me Penn State to cover the spread on Saturday.

Penn State vs Oregon Pick: Penn State +3.5 (-110)

The Big Ten Championship game is set to be an exciting matchup between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Oregon Ducks. Both teams have had strong seasons and will be looking to come out on top in this highly anticipated game.

Penn State comes into the game with a 10-2 record, finishing second in the Big Ten East division. Led by quarterback Sean Clifford and running back Noah Cain, the Nittany Lions have a potent offense that can put up points in a hurry. Their defense has also been solid, ranking in the top 20 in the nation in points allowed per game.

On the other side, the Oregon Ducks have had a successful season as well, finishing with a 10-2 record and winning the Pac-12 North division. Quarterback Anthony Brown has been a key player for the Ducks, leading the offense with his arm and his legs. Oregon’s defense has also been impressive, ranking in the top 25 in the nation in total defense.

When it comes to predicting the outcome of this game, it’s shaping up to be a close matchup. Both teams have strong offenses and defenses, making it difficult to determine a clear favorite. However, Penn State may have a slight edge due to their experience in big games and their ability to execute in pressure situations.

In terms of odds, Penn State is currently favored to win by a slim margin. The Nittany Lions are listed as -3.5 point favorites, indicating that oddsmakers believe they have a slight advantage heading into the game.

Overall, this Big Ten Championship game is sure to be a thrilling contest between two talented teams. Fans can expect a competitive matchup with plenty of excitement and drama. It’s anyone’s game to win, but Penn State may have the slight edge based on their strong season and experience in big games.