- We’ve made our Mississippi State vs Ole Miss prediction for the Egg Bowl on Black Friday
- The #14 Rebels are massive 26.5-point home favorites against the struggling Bulldogs
- Read below for Mississippi State vs Ole Miss predictions, odds and best bet for the rivalry game
The Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to Oxford to face the #14 Ole Miss Rebels in the 121st edition of the Egg Bowl on Black Friday. Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. ET at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium with the game broadcast nationally on ABC.
The Rebels open as hefty 26.5-point favorites with the over/under total set at 61.5 points. However, has shifted the money towards the underdog, and we happen to agree with the movement.
Here is our Mississippi State vs Ole Miss prediction for Friday’s Egg Bowl.
Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Odds 2024
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | +26.5 (-110) | +1400 | Over 61.5 (-110) |
| Ole Miss | -26.5 (-110) | -4000 | Under 61.5 (-110) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of November 25, 2024
Ole Miss enters as a massive 26.5-point favorite with an implied 97.5% probability of winning outright, according to the moneyline odds.
The lofty Egg Bowl spread is justified by the Rebels’ 8-3 record compared to the Bulldogs’ dismal 2-9 mark. However, rivalry games often defy expectations.
The 61.5-point over/under is on the higher end for these teams. It implies a likely score along the lines of Ole Miss 44, Mississippi State 17. While the Rebels boast an explosive offense, their games have hit the under in 9 of 11 contests this season.
Bulldogs Betting Analysis
It’s been a season to forget for first-year head coach Jeff Lebby and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are just 2-9 overall and winless in SEC play at 0-7. Injuries have plagued the squad, most notably losing starting QB Blake Shapen to a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 4.
Freshman Michael Van Buren Jr. has shown flashes since taking over, throwing for 1,606 yards and 10 touchdowns. His top target is Kevin Coleman Jr. who has 68 catches for 814 yards. The ground game relies on the duo of Davon Booth (721 yards) and Johnnie Daniels.
.@mike3k_ ➡️ @_jmo4 for a Bulldog Touchdown!#SHOWTIME | #HailState pic.twitter.com/RzqaKOhJqj
— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) November 23, 2024
Defensively, Mississippi State allows a concerning 461.8 yards per game (127th nationally). They especially struggle defending the pass, ranking dead last in the SEC while allowing 8.3 yards per attempt. Creating pressure has also been an issue, which doesn’t bode well against an Ole Miss offensive line that leads the nation in sack rate.
The Bulldogs’ bright spot has been their success as double-digit underdogs, covering the spread in 4 of 5 such games this year. That includes admirable showings in road losses to Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee. They’ll need to summon that same underdog magic to keep this one competitive.
Rebels Betting Analysis
At 8-3 overall and 4-3 in SEC play, it’s been a strong but somewhat disappointing year for Ole Miss. The Rebels were squarely in the CFP picture before stumbling in The Swamp last week, losing 24-17 to Florida and likely dashing their playoff aspirations.
Lane Kiffin’s squad is powered by arguably the nation’s most explosive offense. Ole Miss averages 38.5 points and 491 yards per game, both top-10 marks nationally. QB Jaxson Dart has thrown for 3,732 yards and 24 TDs, spreading the wealth to a deep receiving corps led by Tre Harris (60 catches, 1,030 yards).
Jaxson Dart breakout season continues. Quitest breakout in all of CFB this year. He without question deserves to be in the 1st round conversation. pic.twitter.com/6YhuE08Ntf
— Mike (@MikeForcella) November 23, 2024
The run game took a hit with leading rusher Henry Parrish Jr. out for the season, but a stable of backs paced by Ulysses Bentley IV still churn out over 200 yards per game. Injuries are a mounting concern though, with star WR Tre Harris and several offensive linemen questionable for the Egg Bowl.
Defensively, the Rebels are elite. They lead the country with 4.5 sacks per game and allow just 13.9 points on average. The pass rush duo of Suntarine Perkins and Princely Umanmielen (10.5 sacks each) will look to feast on a porous Mississippi State offensive line.
Ole Miss is 3-2 ATS at home this year but just 1-3 as a double-digit favorite. After last week’s soul-crushing loss, it’s fair to wonder about the Rebels’ emotional readiness and motivation in a game they’re expected to dominate.
Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Prediction
In a vacuum, Ole Miss should roll. They have the better roster, an overwhelming talent advantage, and the motivation to erase last week’s disappointing defeat. But strange things happen in rivalry games, and the Egg Bowl has a history of upsets and unpredictable outcomes.
The spread is simply too high. Combined with the Rebels’ deflating loss to Florida, key injuries on offense, and the general weirdness of rivalry games, there are too many factors pointing to a closer-than-expected contest.
Egg Bowl tomorrow 🏆#BeatState | #HottyToddy pic.twitter.com/N4GEYuGaYZ
— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) November 28, 2024
Mississippi State has consistently played top competition tough, even in losing efforts. While an outright win is unlikely, the Bulldogs have shown they can rise to the occasion as huge underdogs against superior opponents.
My official best bet is Mississippi State +26.5. The Bulldogs have covered in 4 of 5 games as double-digit dogs this season, and their performances against Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee show they’re better than their record suggests.
Weird things tend to happen in rivalry games, and this spread is simply too high given the circumstances. The Rebels are coming off a devastating loss and battling key injuries that could limit their offensive firepower. I’ll back the Bulldogs to keep it within four touchdowns in this spot.
EGG Bowl Pick 2024:
- Mississippi State +26.5
The Egg Bowl is one of the most highly anticipated college football games in the state of Mississippi, and the 2024 matchup between Mississippi State and Ole Miss is shaping up to be a thrilling showdown. Both teams have a rich history of fierce competition, and fans can expect nothing less when these two rivals take the field.
As we look ahead to the 2024 Egg Bowl, it’s important to consider the strengths and weaknesses of each team. Mississippi State, under the leadership of head coach Mike Leach, has shown significant improvement in recent years. The Bulldogs have a potent offense led by quarterback Will Rogers, who has proven himself to be a capable playmaker. On the defensive side of the ball, Mississippi State has a solid unit that can make life difficult for opposing offenses.
On the other side of the field, Ole Miss is led by head coach Lane Kiffin, who has brought a new level of excitement to the program. The Rebels have a high-powered offense that can put up points in a hurry, thanks in large part to quarterback Luke Altmyer and running back Snoop Conner. While their defense may not be as strong as Mississippi State’s, Ole Miss has shown that they can win shootouts with their explosive offense.
When it comes to predicting the outcome of the 2024 Egg Bowl, it’s always a tough call. Both teams have talented players and passionate fan bases, making for an intense and unpredictable game. However, early odds may give Mississippi State a slight edge due to their recent success and solid defense.
Ultimately, the outcome of the 2024 Egg Bowl will come down to which team can execute their game plan and make key plays when it matters most. Fans can expect a hard-fought battle between these two rivals, with bragging rights on the line. No matter the final score, one thing is for certain – the Egg Bowl never fails to deliver excitement and drama for college football fans in Mississippi.