- The Dolphins and Packers square off on Thanksgiving Day in primetime
- De’Von Achane has handled 12 or fewer rush attempts in four of his past five games
- Keep reading for the Dolphins vs Packers player prop odds, and best bets below
The Dolphins versus Packers Thanksgiving Day showdown is not only the most compelling matchup on the three-game slate, but it’s also likely to draw the most action. Bettors will be eager to either press their winnings or chase their losses from earlier in the day, and there’s no shortage of markets to wager on. By Thursday, the spread and total markets show little value, but the same cannot be said for the NFL player props. Names like Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, Tyreek Hill, Josh Jacobs and De’Von Achane will be popular targets to bet on, and we’ve zeroed in on a pair of Achane wagers to headline our Dolphins vs Packers player props card.
Dolphins vs Packers Player Props
Passer | Completions | Passing Yards | Passing TDs |
---|---|---|---|
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | 22.5 (O -125 | U -105) | 243.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 1.5 (O +110 | U -145) |
Jordan Love (GB) | 20.5 (O -120 | U -110) | 242.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 1.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
Rusher | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Rush + Rec Yds |
De’Von Achane (MIA) | 13.5 (O +105 | U -135) | 54.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 89.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
Josh Jacobs (GB) | 17.5 (O -105 | U -125) | 73.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 91.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
Jordan Love (GB) | 2.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 6.5 (O -105 | U -125) | OFF |
Receiver | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Longest Reception |
Tyreek Hill (MIA) | 5.5 (O +120 | U -155) | 63.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 23.5 (O -110 | U -120) |
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 3.5 (O -110 | U -120) | 44.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 18.5 (O -125 | U -105) |
De’Von Achane (MIA) | 4.5 (O +115 | U -150) | 31.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 14.5 (O -120 | U -110) |
Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 4.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 45.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 17.5 (O -125 | U -105) |
Jayden Reed (GB) | 4.5 (O +120 | U -160) | 50.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 21.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
Christian Watson (GB) | 3.5 (O +125 | U -165) | 43.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 21.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
Dontayvion Wicks (GB) | 2.5 (O -170 | U +130) | 35.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 18.5 (O -115 | U -115) |
Tucker Kraft (GB) | 3.5 (O +120 | U -160) | 31.5 (O -120 | U -110) | 16.5 (O -110 | U -120) |
Achane currently projects for four less carries than Jacobs, a gap we don’t think is wide enough. The second year back is not a workhorse type like his counterpart, and cedes multiple carries to Raheem Mostert every outing.
Odds as of Nov. 27 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings promo code before making a bet on any Thanksgiving Day NFL game.
Dolphins vs Packers Prop #1: Devon Achane Rush Attempts and Receptions
There are multiple outs for the under on Achane’s rush attempts to cash. For starters, Miami is a 3.5-point ‘dog in the NFL odds, which suggests a trailing game script. Typically, that means more passing volume, eating into Achane’s work load.
Second, Achane has lacked efficiency this season, averaging almost half as many yards per attempt as last year (4.3 vs 7.8). He’s been far more effective as a pass catcher, averaging 7.3 yards per reception, and the Dolphins would be wise to use him more in that role in this matchup.
Devon Achane Rushing Stats – Last 4 Games
Opponent | Attempts | Yards | Avg. |
---|---|---|---|
Patriots | 10 | 32 | 3.2 |
Raiders | 17 | 73 | 4.3 |
Rams | 12 | 37 | 3.1 |
Bills | 12 | 63 | 5.3 |
Green Bay has allowed the ninth most receiving yards to enemy backs, and there are few players more dangerous in space than Achane. The Packers run defense on the other hand is trending up, after completely shutting down Christian McCaffrey in Week 12.
Achane has handled 13+ carries in only three of 11 games so far, and this is not the spot to expect him to do so again.
- Dolphins vs Packers Prop Picks: Devon Achane Under 13.5 Rush Attempts (-135); risk 1 unit, Over 4.5 Receptions (+115); risk 1 unit
Dolphins vs Packers Prop #2: Jordan Love Rush Attempts
Sticking in the rush attempts market, we’re looking to bet under 2.5 carries for Love. The Packers need improved play from their QB to boost their stock in the Super Bowl odds, but they’ll be leaning on his arm rather than his legs to do so.
Love clearly isn’t healthy after suffering both knee and groin issues already this season, and his willingness to scramble has decreased. He’s rushed 3 or more times in only three games this season, and all three opponents were top-10 in pressure rate. Miami on the other hand, generates pressure at a bottom-7 rate.
- Dolphins vs Packers Prop Picks: Jordan Love Under 2.5 Rush Attempts (-115); risk 1 unit
Dolphins vs Packers Touchdown Scorer Props
Player | Odds to Score 1st TD | Odds to Score Any TD |
---|---|---|
Josh Jacobs (GB) | +400 | -185 |
De’Von Achane (MIA) | +600 | -125 |
Jayden Reed (GB) | +750 | +120 |
Tucker Kraft (GB) | +900 | +155 |
Tyreek Hill (MIA) | +1000 | +145 |
Christian Watson (GB) | +1100 | +185 |
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | +1300 | +180 |
Jonnu Smith (MIA) | +1300 | +190 |
Dontayvion Wicks (GB) | +1500 | +260 |
Raheem Mostert (MIA) | +2000 | +350 |
Shifting to touchdown props, where we can’t pass up the value on Jonnu Smith’s anytime TD odds. He’s +190 to find the end zone, something he’s done three times in the last two weeks.
Smith leads Miami in targets since Week 5, and the matchup is elite. Green Bay’s linebackers are a liability in coverage, allowing the sixth most production to enemy tight ends.
- Dolphins vs Packers Prop Picks: Jonnu Smith Anytime TD (+190); risk 1 unit
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As Thanksgiving Day approaches, football fans are gearing up for a thrilling matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers. While the game itself is sure to be exciting, many fans are also looking forward to placing bets on player props to add an extra layer of excitement to the game.
When it comes to player prop bets for the Thanksgiving Day matchup between the Dolphins and Packers, there are several options that stand out as potentially lucrative opportunities. Here are some of the best player prop bets to consider for this game:
1. Aaron Rodgers Over/Under Passing Yards: One of the most popular player prop bets for any game involving the Packers is the over/under on Aaron Rodgers’ passing yards. Rodgers is known for his ability to rack up passing yards, so taking the over on this bet could be a smart move.
2. Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Davante Adams is one of the top wide receivers in the league and a favorite target of Aaron Rodgers. Betting on Adams to score a touchdown at any point during the game is a solid bet, especially considering his track record of finding the end zone.
3. Tua Tagovailoa Interceptions: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has shown flashes of brilliance in his young career, but he has also been prone to turnovers. Betting on Tagovailoa to throw an interception during the game could be a good bet, especially against a tough Packers defense.
4. Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards: Dolphins rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has been a bright spot for Miami this season, racking up impressive receiving yards in several games. Betting on Waddle to have a big game and surpass his receiving yardage total could pay off handsomely.
5. Aaron Jones Rushing Touchdowns: Packers running back Aaron Jones is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, especially in the red zone. Betting on Jones to score a rushing touchdown during the game is a solid bet, considering his ability to find the end zone.
Overall, there are plenty of enticing player prop bets to consider for the Thanksgiving Day matchup between the Dolphins and Packers. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just looking to add some excitement to the game, these player prop bets offer plenty of opportunities to cash in on the action.