Analysis of NFL Week 12 Matchups: Predictions Against the Spread and Recommended Early Lines to Bet On

• NFL Week 12 is a do-or-die situation for many team on the fringe of the Wild Card race
• The 5-5 Niners are 2.5 games out of a postseason berth as they visit the 7-3 Packers
• Below, see my three favorite NFL Week 12 ATS picks to target early in the week

The 2024 NFL regular season is nearly two-thirds finished already and a quick glance at the standings reveals some massive surprises, first and foremost, the reigning NFC-champion San Francisco 49ers are 2.5 games out of a Wild Card berth. They’re only a game back of the division-leading Cardinals but, viewed another way, they’re also in a three-way tie for last in the NFC West. Making matters worse, they head to Lambeau this week to face the 7-3 Green Bay Packers as 2.5-point underdogs. But I’m earmarking this Sunday as the Week the Niners turn everything around.

Early NFL Week 12 ATS Picks

In addition to betting the Niners at an alt-spread of -1.5, I am also backing two home underdogs catching more than a field goal in the Week 12 NFL odds.

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Week 12 ATS Pick #1: Bears +3.5 (-115) vs Vikings

My first ATS pick of Week 12 is the hard-luck Chicago Bears (4-6, 4-2 home) to cover as 3.5-point home underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings (8-2, 4-1 away). After being on the wrong end of the a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary in Week 8, the Bears suffered more late-game devastation this Sunday: Cairo Santos had a 46-yard field goal blocked at the buzzer as Chicago fell 20-19 to Green Bay.

PACKERS BLOCK THE FIELD GOAL FOR THE WIN.#GBvsCHI pic.twitter.com/gq8zbz965C

— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024

But one of my main takeaways from that game was how well the Bears played. They out-gained the Packers (391-366) and dominated time of possession (36:21 to 23:39).

The Vikings have played a soft schedule the last few weeks and haven’t looked particularly good doing so. Minnesota’s current three-game win streak includes a 20-13 win vs Indianapolis, a 12-7 win at Jacksonville (in which they failed to score a TD) and, most recently, a 23-13 win at Tennessee. Those teams are a combined 9-23 with a -215 point differential.

The Bears are two games under .500 but with a +7 point differential. This is a solid Chicago team that is catching too many points at home.

Week 12 ATS Pick #2: Giants +5.5 (-115) vs Buccaneers

My second pick is a hold-your-breath-plug-your-nose sort of play. The Giants (2-8, 0-5 home) have lost five in a row, including a 20-17 setback to the Panthers overseas in Week 10. But the last three have all been one-score games and QB Daniel Jones has finally been benched. I am not expecting a huge offensive explosion with Tommy DeVito under center, but I do expect a few more points with the sophomore pivot making his first start of the season.

The Buccaneers (4-6, 2-2 away) have been wildly inconsistent. They are the only team to beat the Lions this year (20-16 away in Week 2) and also own wins over the Eagles and Commanders, but they enter Week 12 on a four-game losing streak and their only real hope of making the postseason is to catch the Falcons at the top of the NFC South – a team they’ve already lost to twice.

Tampa certainly deserves to be favored in this spot – their +13 point differential is 79 points better than NYG’s (-66) – but this is also a lot of points to be laying on the road against a good defense and a potentially reinvigorated passing game.

Week 12 ATS Pick #3: 49ers -1.5 (+125) at Packers

For my final ATS pick of the week, I am moving  the line across zero and betting the underdog to win by at least two points. This is the first time the 49ers (5-5, 2-2 away) have been underdogs since 2022. You read that right. They were favored in every game last season (including the Super Bowl) and every game this year … until now.

One of the main reasons for San Francisco’s underdog status is QB Brock Purdy’s shoulder injury, which has him listed as questionable early in the week. I expect Purdy to play and, even if he doesn’t, this is the kind of offense that even Brandon Allen or Josh Dobbs could find success with.

The Packers are a good team; they have a +37 point differential and sit eighth in the NFL in DVOA (+15.5%). But the Niners are a better one by almost all metrics, leaving win/loss records to the side for a moment. San Francisco is still sixth in DVOA (+21.1%) and would be in control of the NFC West if not for baffling late-game collapses against the Cardinals in Week 5 and Seahawks in Week 11.

The Niners championship pedigree is going to come to the fore eventually, and I love the price on it happening this week.

As we head into Week 12 of the NFL season, there are several intriguing matchups on the schedule that are sure to have bettors excited. With playoff implications on the line for many teams, the stakes are high and every game is crucial. In this article, we will take a closer look at some of the key matchups and provide predictions against the spread as well as recommended early lines to bet on.

One of the most highly anticipated games of the week is the showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chiefs are coming off a dominant performance against the Las Vegas Raiders, while the Buccaneers are looking to bounce back after a tough loss to the Los Angeles Rams. With both teams boasting high-powered offenses led by superstar quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady, this game is sure to be a shootout. The early line has the Chiefs favored by 3 points, and we recommend taking Kansas City to cover the spread in this one.

Another intriguing matchup in Week 12 is the battle between the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans. Both teams are vying for the top spot in the AFC South and this game could have major playoff implications. The Titans are coming off a big win over the Baltimore Ravens, while the Colts are looking to bounce back after a tough loss to the Green Bay Packers. The early line has the Titans favored by 3 points, but we like the Colts to pull off the upset and cover the spread in this one.

In a divisional matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles, the Seahawks are favored by 5 points on the road. The Seahawks are coming off a tough loss to the Arizona Cardinals, while the Eagles are struggling to find consistency on offense. We recommend taking Seattle to cover the spread in this game as they look to bounce back and solidify their playoff position.

Overall, Week 12 of the NFL season is shaping up to be an exciting one with several key matchups that could have major playoff implications. By analyzing the matchups and considering the early lines, bettors can make informed decisions on which teams to bet on against the spread. As always, it’s important to do your own research and consider all factors before placing any bets. Good luck and happy betting!