- The Texans are 7-point road favorites against the Cowboys on Monday Night Football in Week 11
- Dallas has gone 24 straight possessions at home without a touchdown
- Check out the Texans vs Cowboys prediction, picks, and odds for MNF
On paper, the battle of Texas isn’t shaping up to be much of a battle at all. The Texans (6-4, 2-3 away) are running away with the AFC South heading into their Monday Night Football matchup with a Dallas Cowboys (3-6, 0-4 home) squad that is completely broken. CJ Stroud and company are sizeable road favorites in the latest football betting lines as they look to hand Dallas a fifth straight loss.
Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys Odds
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | -7 (-112) | -310 | O 42 (-110) |
| Dallas Cowboys | +7 (-108) | +250 | U 42 (-110) |
Houston is currently favored by 7 points, in a contest with a total of 42. Bettors clearly don’t feel like this line is high enough, as the Texans are dominating the spread wagers so far. 74% of the tickets are on Houston -7, as is 78% of the spread handle.
Odds as of November 15 at BetMGM. Be sure to check out the best BetMGM promo code before placing a bet on Monday Night Football.
Total-wise, we’re seeing similar lopsided action per the NFL public betting percentages: 78% of the over/under bets are on over 42, as is 55% of the total money wagered.
Kickoff for this primetime clash is set for 8:15 pm ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, with ESPN and ABC providing the broadcast coverage.
A Get Back on Track Spot for the Texans
The lopsided spread line is more a reflection of how bad the Cowboys look rather than impressive Houston has been. The Texans have dropped back-to-back decisions, and three of their last four overall.
They haven’t exceeded 23 points in any of those outings, and have fallen to 30-1 in the Super Bowl odds. Stroud meanwhile, has thrown as many interceptions (2) as touchdowns (2) during that span.
The Texans check in as the league’s 17th highest scoring offense, down four spots from a year ago. Good news is on the way however, as star receiver Nico Collins is slated to make his return.
Nico Collins has more receiving yards than Marvin Harrison Jr., Tyreek Hill, & Amon-Ra St. Brown this season.
He’s played in just 5/10 games… pic.twitter.com/TACJRCbThm
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) November 14, 2024
Collins has been out since Week 5 with a hamstring injury. He was leading the league in receiving when he went down, and since then Houston has also lost their second best pass catching option in Stefon Diggs.
With a limited receiving corps, the Texans have deployed a run heavy approach, leaning on Joe Mixon. The former Bengal is averaging the third most rushing pards per game in the NFL (98.3), and has found the endzone eight times already.
The Cowboys enter play allowing the second most rushing yards per game (152), while ranking 30th in run stop win rate. Collins’ return will draw plenty of extra attention from Dallas’ defense, potentially making Mixon’s matchup even more favorable.
If there’s an area of concern for Houston, it’s along the offensive line. The Texans rank 20th in pass block win rate, coughing up 12 sacks in their last two outings alone.
For all of their flaws, the Cowboys can still generate pressure, even more so with Micah Parsons in the lineup. Parsons returned last week from injury, and helped Dallas rack up five sacks in a 34-6 loss to Philly.
Oh What a Rush
Unfortunately, those sacks didn’t lead to any success as the Cowboys offense was dreadful. Cooper Rush averaged 1.96 yards per attempt versus the Eagles, and was benched in the fourth quarter.
Cooper Rush vs Eagles
| CMP-ATT | YDS | YPA | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13-23 | 45 | 1.96 | 17.9 |
He’ll be back under center on Monday, at least to start, as the Cowboys look to do something they haven’t done since Week 3 at home: score a touchdown.
Dallas has only four touchdowns in 45 offensive possessions at Jerry’s World, and have gone 24 straight possessions without a TD in home losses to the Lions and Eagles. They’re converting just 35.9% of their third downs this season, and 41.7% of their red zone trips into touchdowns.
Dak Prescott, Rush and Trey Lance have combined for a total QBR of 34.3, which is higher than only Deshaun Watson and Will Levis among starting quarterbacks.
Texans vs Cowboys Prediction
Prescott is done for the season, so unless Rush or Lance morph into a reliable option, the Cowboys season is sunk. Life won’t get any easier this week against the Texans defense, which has forced a league-high 15 turnovers since Week 6.
Dallas is winless in four home games so far, losing three times by at least 25 points. They haven’t lost five straight at home since 2015, but that’s about to change.
The Cowboys are a 0-4 against the spread in their last four outings, and boast the second lowest cover rate in the NFL (22.2%).
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Week 11 of the NFL season is set to kick off with an exciting matchup between the Houston Texans and the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Both teams are coming off of wins in Week 10 and will be looking to continue their momentum in this primetime showdown.
The Texans (5-4) are currently sitting atop the AFC South and are coming off of a dominant 41-25 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Quarterback Deshaun Watson had a stellar performance, throwing for 281 yards and two touchdowns, while the defense forced four turnovers. The Texans will look to build on this strong showing as they face a tough Cowboys team.
The Cowboys (2-7) are coming off of a much-needed win against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 10. Quarterback Andy Dalton had a solid performance, throwing for 203 yards and three touchdowns, while running back Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys will be looking to continue their winning ways and climb back into playoff contention with a victory over the Texans.
In terms of predictions, this matchup is shaping up to be a close one. The Texans have the edge in terms of record and momentum, but the Cowboys have shown flashes of potential in recent weeks. Both teams have talented offenses and defenses, so it could come down to which team can make the key plays in crucial moments.
As for picks, this game could go either way. The Texans are currently favored by 3.5 points, but the Cowboys have the talent to pull off an upset. It may come down to which team can establish their running game early and control the clock. Ultimately, I believe the Texans will come out on top in a close game, with Deshaun Watson leading the way with a strong performance.
In terms of odds, the over/under for this game is set at 48 points. Both teams have the potential to put up points, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see a high-scoring affair. Bettors may want to consider taking the over in this matchup.
Overall, Week 11’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Texans and Cowboys is shaping up to be an exciting game with playoff implications for both teams. Fans can expect a competitive and entertaining showdown between these two Texas rivals.