Top Picks for Same-Game Parlay in TNF Week 11: Commanders vs Eagles

• Thursday Night Football gets a NFC East showdown between the 7-3 Washington Commanders and 7-2 Philadelphia Eagles
• Tonight’s TNF same-game parlay features an Over/Under pick and calls for a Brotherly Shove TD
• Below, see all three legs of a +700 Commanders vs Eagles SGP for Thursday Night Football

Disagree with me and my SGP all you want, but tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup won’t be the shootout we saw last week. It’ll still be a battle, however, just one fought in the trenches, when the Washington Commanders take on the Philadelphia Eagles for control of the NFC East. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET.

Commanders vs Eagles Same-Game Parlay Picks

Despite hitting last week’s Bengals vs Ravens SGP, I regret not going with a riskier line. Hitting two anytime TD picks was great, but seeing Ja’Marr Chase score three TDs overall means money was left on the table. Likewise, when I took Joe Burrow to hit 300+ yards, only for him to go over 400 instead. But the SGP paid out, so a win is a win.

Odds as of November 13th at bet365 Sportsbook. Use the latest bet365 promo code before betting on Commanders vs Eagles. 

That’s why I’m again trusting my gut on how Commanders vs Eagles will play out for this week’s NFL SGP bet. I’m expecting a run-heavy, lower scoring game, but not without its share of red zone, “tush push” action. This week’s Commanders vs Eagles SGP adds up to +700, where a $100 bet will net a profit of $700, but only if all three legs hit.

Ian’s 2024 NFL SGP Record: 3-6, +15.83 units

Commanders vs Eagles Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Total Under 48.5 Points

I know I’m in the minority with my first SGP leg: Commanders vs Eagles will not be high scoring. I know that doesn’t make sense since these two teams average 29.0 and 25.9 PPG, respectively, but hear me out.

First, it’s an understatement to say Washington and Philadelphia like to run the ball. Going into Week 11, the Eagles run game is first in attempts, second in yards, and second in TDs, while the Commanders are respectively third, third, and first in those categories.

None of this is surprising when the likes of Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts have their hands on the ball.

However, run plays eat up the clock, so the question becomes how effective will either team be on the ground. For Washington, that could become problematic when facing an Eagles defense that’s 5th in rush yards allowed, tied for 5th in TDs, and 2nd in Run Stop Win Rate.

I’m also not convinced that a Kliff Kingsbury offense will outduel a Vic Fangio defense. The two have never gone head-to-head directly, but the influence of their schemes have clashed. Twice, in fact, in 2022, and both times the Fangio-adjacent teams won.

Denver’s then-DC Ejiro Evero ran a defensive blueprint created by Fangio the year prior, and held Kingsbury’s Cardinals to 15 points and just 240 yards. Of course, that particular game featured Colt McCoy & Trace McSorley in the backfield. It’s a miracle Arizona got any points, let alone 15.

But when facing the highly-mobile Kyler Murray earlier that season, the Fangio-consulted Eagles also held Arizona to just 17 points and 363 yards.

This is my long-winded way of saying that Kingsbury offenses don’t run up the score against Fangio-adjacent defenses. Tonight, he gets Fangio and his deceptively complex schemes. If Philly is controlling the game on the ground, they won’t need to pile on the points, either.

Commanders vs Eagles Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Jayden Daniels Completions Under 19.5

The Commanders’ rookie QB has been electric since Day 1, bringing renown back to the franchise overnight with his arm and his feet. It’s the latter that’ll incidentally impact this leg of the parlay.

Why do rush attempts matter? Just like in SGP Pick #1, the clock will constantly be running when the ball’s on the ground. Offensive opportunities will be limited. Who benefits in that scenario? The team that dominates possession.

In addition to leading the league in rushing attempts, the Eagles are also Top 4 for time of possession. In fact, Philly’s ball control is trending upward lately, averaging over 34 minutes per game over their last three, compared to a season average of 32:28.

Logically, if the Eagles have the ball more, Washington will have it less. And, again, the clock will always be running.

However, if Washington falls behind early, which I don’t see happening, only then will Daniels start firing from the pocket. Even if that’s the case, he’ll still have to contend with the Eagles’ second-ranked pass defense. That in itself will not be easy.

#Eagles pass defense since Week 6:

#1 in EPA/Dropback
#1 in Success Rate/Dropback
#1 in Explosive Pass Rate
#1 in YAC/reception

Pretty good! 🔊🔊 pic.twitter.com/mjt1vvIYMG

— Fran Duffy (@FDuffyNFL) November 12, 2024

This isn’t to say Daniels will be ineffective in the pocket; instead, I think he’ll have fewer chances to shake things up.

And it’s not for nothing, but rookie starting QBs are 0-9-1 against the Eagles since 2016, while Fangio defenses are 6-2 against rookie starting QBs over the last 5 seasons.

Commanders vs Eagles Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD

I have no qualms with riding the current Jalen Hurts TD parade. It’s hard to go against a guy that cannot be stopped from one yard, especially when a touchdown is on the line.

After all, Hurts has eight rushing touchdowns in his last four games! If your mind wasn’t just boggled, go reread that last sentence.

Jalen Hurts has 8 rushing TDs in his last 4 games – that is the most by a QB in any 4 game span in NFL history @NFLPlus

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 11, 2024

In 99 red zone plays this season, the Eagles have put it on the ground 70 times, with 30 of those runs coming from Ol’ Jalen Two Shoes. That’s more RZ rush attempts than Barkley, their primary back.

Furthermore, all ten of Hurts’ TDs this season have come from inside the red zone; that’s ten touchdowns on just thirty runs! Only Barkley comes close with six RZ TDs, while four other Eagles have one RZ TD apiece.

Philadelphia unquestionably has big-time players, but when near the end zone, they may as well give it to Hurts and help shove him the rest of the way.

Also see:

As the NFL season continues to heat up, Thursday Night Football in Week 11 features an exciting matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams are looking to secure a crucial win to stay in the playoff race, making this game even more intriguing for football fans and bettors alike.

One popular betting option for this game is the same-game parlay, where bettors can combine multiple bets within the same game for a potentially higher payout. With so many different outcomes to consider, it can be challenging to narrow down the best picks for a same-game parlay. However, we’ve done the research and come up with our top picks for the Commanders vs Eagles matchup:

1. Moneyline: The Eagles are currently favored to win this game, but the Commanders have shown they can compete with top teams this season. Consider adding a moneyline bet on either team to your parlay, depending on your prediction for the game’s outcome.

2. Total Points Over/Under: Both teams have shown they can put up points on the board, so consider adding an over/under bet on the total points scored in the game. The over/under for this matchup is set at 48.5 points, so make your pick based on each team’s offensive capabilities and defensive strengths.

3. Player Props: Look for player props that offer value in this game, such as passing yards for quarterbacks, rushing yards for running backs, or receiving yards for wide receivers. Consider adding player props for key players on both teams to your parlay for added excitement.

4. First Half/Second Half Bets: Another option to consider is adding bets on the first half or second half of the game to your parlay. Look for opportunities to capitalize on momentum shifts or key plays that could impact the outcome of the game.

5. Anytime Touchdown Scorers: Finally, consider adding bets on anytime touchdown scorers to your parlay. Both teams have playmakers who can find the end zone, so look for value in this market and add it to your same-game parlay.

Overall, creating a same-game parlay for the Commanders vs Eagles matchup can add an extra layer of excitement to Thursday Night Football. By combining different bets within the same game, bettors have the opportunity to potentially increase their payout while following the action on the field. Use our top picks as a guide when creating your same-game parlay for this exciting Week 11 matchup. Good luck and happy betting!