2024 Election Odds: Analysis of Trump vs Harris Odds on Election Day

• Election day is tomorrow and the 2024 presidential election odds remain razor-thin
• Vice President Kamala Harris slightly trails former President Donald Trump
• See the final odds heading into November 5

In just 24 hours, the world will know – or at least have a good indication – whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will sit in the White House come January. The 2024 Presidential Election odds have undergone half a dozen seismic shifts since Joe Biden took office nearly four years ago. Where do they stand on the eve of election day?

Presidential Election Odds – Harris vs Trump

Trump, who was a heavy -278 favorite (73.54% implied probability) to win days before aging incumbent Joe Biden announced he would not seek re-election, is a -166 (62.41% IP) favorite at bet365 as of Monday, Nov. 4. Other sportsbooks and prediction sites have the gap even narrower.

At Kalshi, a prediction market that was only just permitted to offer election outcomes by a federal court in September 2024, a Trump victory is trading at 55 cents with a Harris victory at 45 cents. In sports-betting terms, that would make Trump a -122 favorite and Harris a +122 underdog.

UK betting giant William Hill has the odds at -150 (60% IP) for Trump and +130 (43.48%) for Harris.

Why Is Trump Favored?

Why is Trump favored at basically all political betting sites? The short answer is: the polls. While Harris still has a decent lead nationally and is -400 to win the popular vote (80% implied probability), the Electoral College map, and the relevant polls alongside it, suggest enough states will turn red to get Trump to the 270 electoral votes he needs to retake the White House.

At 270t0win.com, 226 electoral votes are safely blue while 219 are safely red. Seven states – and 93 electoral votes – are too close to call based on polling data. The latest polls from NateSilver.net have Trump leading in five of those seven states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) and Harris in just two (Michigan and Wisconsin).

If Trump is able to carry all five and there isn’t a big upset with any of the other 219 electoral votes already penciled into the GOP column, he would end up with 287, more than enough to earn a second, non-consecutive term in the White House.

The table below shows the seven battleground states, along with their number of electoral votes, and the margin in the latest polls from Nate Silver.

Battleground States & Latest Polls

Outside of these seven primary battleground states, the closest races are likely to be in Iowa (six EVs, GOP +3.4%) and New Hampshire (four EVs, DEM +4.6%).

Does Harris Have a Shot?

Yes, consensus is that this election is still far too close to call. Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania and Nevada is less than half a percent. If the Keystone State goes blue and Harris holds onto Michigan and Wisconsin (which both went Democrat in 2020), she would add 44 electoral votes to the 226 penciled into the blue column and land exactly on 270. And it’s no secret that the derogatory remarks about Puerto Ricans at a recent Trump rally could have a big benefit for Democrats in the state.

Also, if Harris takes any combination of Nevada and North Carolina/Georgia, the path to the White House for Trump becomes very narrow.

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, all eyes are on the potential matchup between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Both candidates have been making waves in the political arena, and their odds on election day are sure to be closely watched by pundits and voters alike.

Donald Trump, the controversial and polarizing former president, has been a dominant force in the Republican Party since his election in 2016. Despite facing impeachment twice during his tenure, Trump still maintains a strong base of support among conservative voters. His brash and unapologetic style has endeared him to many who see him as a champion of their values and beliefs.

On the other side of the aisle, Kamala Harris made history as the first female, first Black, and first Asian-American vice president in U.S. history. Harris is seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party, with her progressive policies and charismatic personality appealing to a wide range of voters. Her background as a former prosecutor and senator gives her a strong resume for the highest office in the land.

So, what are the odds of a Trump vs Harris matchup on election day in 2024? According to political analysts and betting markets, the race is expected to be a close one. Trump’s loyal base of supporters will likely turn out in force to support him, while Harris will be looking to build on the momentum of the Biden-Harris administration.

One factor that could play a significant role in the outcome of the election is the state of the economy. With inflation on the rise and concerns about job growth, voters may be swayed by which candidate they believe can best handle these issues. Trump’s background as a businessman may give him an edge in this area, while Harris’s focus on social justice and equality could resonate with voters looking for change.

Ultimately, the 2024 election is sure to be a closely contested battle between two formidable candidates. As election day approaches, all eyes will be on the odds of a Trump vs Harris matchup, and voters will have to decide which candidate they believe is best suited to lead the country for the next four years.