Expert and Computer Predictions for Upsets in Week 9 of the NFL

• Want some help or advice in betting the remaining 14 games in Week 9 of the 2024-25 NFL season?
• I am predicting two upsets in Week 9, while my SBD formula is calling for four underdogs to win straight up
• See our Week 9 NFL picks below

Week 9 of the NFL season started with a loss for most of the betting public – my formula and I were on the losing side as well, unfortunately – but there are another 13 NFL games on Sunday and one more Monday for us to get our money back. If you want some help in betting the remaining 14 games, I’m happy to share my Week 9 NFL picks as well as my formula’s picks.

The NFL picks I will be focusing on in this article are the underdogs I am betting to win outright, as well as the underdogs my SBD formula has winning outright. This is why these NFL picks are moneyline picks. I went 1-0 on underdogs last week, winning 1.78 units, and my SBD formula went 3-1, winning 3.48 units.

Here’s who the two of us are betting in Week 9!

Week 9 NFL Picks

I have two underdogs I am betting this week, while my SBD formula has three predicted upsets. We agree on one of them, and for what it’s worth, it only has New England losing their game by 0.2 points.

The odds and sportsbooks I attached to each pick above were the best prices at the time of writing this article. It is likely they will not be the exact same when you get to reading this article. So, be sure you use our NFL odds page to shop for the best price on each of the bets above.

If you were looking for NFL picks for every game this week, you have technically received them. My SBD formula is predicting the favorite will win the other 11 games being played. Though, as mentioned earlier, it has an extremely tight margin of victory for the Titans. I also want to note that it only has the Broncos winning their game over the Ravens by 2.1 points. Every other margin of victory is at least five points. You can follow me on Twitter/X for further information on my SBD formula’s predictions.

I won’t be able to go into exactly why my formula likes the teams above, or else it won’t remain my formula for very long! (I intend to continue riding its coattails a while longer.) But I am happy to share some analysis on why I like the two teams I am picking below!

Patriots Over Titans

As is the case with many of my upset picks this season, this one is more about me fading the favorite as opposed to really backing the underdog. With the underdog here being New England, this is especially about me fading Tennessee.

I do not believe the Titans should be viewed as a better team than anyone right now. But that’s what the sportsbooks are saying here when they have made them 3.5-point favorites. Homefield advantage is typically worth 2.5 to 3 points, depending on the stadium and team, so the sportsbooks are calling the Titans a full point better than the Patriots with their spread.

I appreciate that the Titans defense has allowed the fewest yards in the league, but that’s a bit of a fake stat when you take a closer look at their games. Tennessee only allowed 61 net passing yards to the Lions last week, but they also lost the game 52-14. Jared Goff barely played because the Lions were up so much. They were blown out by the Bills 34-10 the week prior.

The Titans have also had the luxury of playing Caleb Williams in his first career start, the Malik Willis-led Packers, and the Tyler Huntley-led Dolphins. I don’t buy into them being a great defense.

They have an awful offense whether it’s Will Levis or Mason Rudolph under center. The Patriots are not a good team either, but I don’t think they’re worse than the Titans.

• Pick: Patriots moneyline (+158 at FanDuel)

Bears Over Cardinals

Plain and simple, the Bears are the better team in this matchup. Chicago has allowed the fourth-fewest points and 11th-fewest yards in the league. They’re good against the pass and I believe have the athleticism at edge and linebacker to contain Kyler Murray.

Caleb Williams’ rookie season has been quite up-and-down, and he’s coming off one of those downs against the Commanders last week, going just 10-of-24 for 131 yards. But Washington has a decent defense. The Cardinals do not. Arizona is 30th in net yards allowed per pass attempt and 21st in yards allowed per rush attempt. We have seen Williams take advantage of bad defenses this season, putting up 36 and 35 points against the Panthers and Jaguars, respectively.

I like Williams to get the offense moving against a bad Cardinals defense, and Kyler won’t be able to keep up. This is one of my favorite upset picks of the season.

• Pick: Bears moneyline (+105 at ESPN Bet)

As we head into Week 9 of the NFL season, football fans are eagerly anticipating the potential upsets that could shake up the standings. While some games may seem like easy picks for the favorites, experts and computer algorithms are pointing to a few matchups that could result in surprising outcomes.

One game that has caught the attention of many experts is the showdown between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints are coming off a strong win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Falcons have shown flashes of brilliance this season and could potentially pull off an upset at home. Computer models are giving the Falcons a decent chance of winning this game, so it’s definitely one to keep an eye on.

Another game to watch is the matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Chicago Bears. The Steelers have been struggling as of late, while the Bears have been playing solid football behind their strong defense. Experts believe that the Bears have a good chance of pulling off an upset in this game, especially if their defense can contain Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

One more game that could result in an upset is the clash between the Los Angeles Rams and the Tennessee Titans. The Rams have been one of the top teams in the league this season, but the Titans have shown that they can compete with anyone on any given day. Computer algorithms are giving the Titans a decent chance of pulling off the upset in this game, so it’s definitely a matchup to watch closely.

While upsets are always a possibility in the NFL, it’s important to remember that anything can happen on any given Sunday. Whether you’re a fan of the underdog or rooting for the favorite, Week 9 is shaping up to be an exciting week of football with plenty of potential upsets on the horizon. Be sure to tune in and see how it all plays out!