- NFL Week 7 features some intriguing matchups, including a Super Bowl rematch
- Road favorites went 9-0 in Week 6
- Keep reading to see our NFL Week 7 expert picks against the spread
12 NFL games kick off on Sunday, October 20, starting with the Jaguars and Patriots in London, and wraps up with two Monday Night Football games.
After going 9-0 against the spread last week, the Broncos covered as a road favorite on Thursday Night Football against the Saints. That makes road favorites 13-0 straight up and against the spread since Week 5. In my NFL Week 7 picks, there is one road favorite that I am looking to back.
NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread
Week 7 offers some exciting games on Sunday and Monday. There is a Super Bowl 58 rematch, CJ Stroud and the Texans travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers, and Jim Harbaugh and the new-look, ground-and-pound Chargers go on the road to play the Cardinals.
See below to find out who I am betting on in each of those games.
Texans vs Packers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | +3 (-115) | +125 | Over 47.5 (-110) |
| Green Bay Packers | -3 (-105) | -150 | Under 47.5 (-110) |
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NFL Pick #1: Packers -3 (vs. Texans)
Texans vs. Packers is one of the most intriguing matchups on Sunday in the early slate. The Texans are 5-1 straight up but just 2-4 against the spread, while the Packers are 4-2 SU and ATS.
The NFL odds list the Packers as 3-point home favorites to the current 2-seed in the AFC. Both of these teams are playing at a high level right now as the Texans have rattled off three straight wins after losing to the Vikings, and the Packers have won four of their last five. Their only loss in that stretch was also to the Vikings.
Even without Nico Collins, the Texans have a strong passing attack with CJ Stroud under center. Wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell will pose a threat to Green Bay’s secondary, and Houston also has a much-improved run game now that Joe Mixon is back. The Texans ran for 192 yards against the Patriots last week. While the offense gets most of the praise, Houston’s defense has played well and ranks in the top five for passing yards allowed and sacks.
Jordan Love and the young receivers of the Packers have been on a roll. While they all have had their moments, Jayden Reed is the one who has stepped up and become Love’s favorite target. Green Bay is in the top five for yards per play with 6.2, so the offense has been efficient plus Love has only been sacked four times. The Packers offense vs the Texans defense will be the matchup to watch in this one.
The Packers are 7-4 against the spread in their last eleven games at Lambeau Field, and Matt LaFleur is great against the spread when playing good teams. LaFleur is 28-15 ATS (65%) against teams that are above .500 SU as the head coach of the Packers.
The Packers lead the league in takeaways with 17, and while Houston’s offense is loaded with talent, they have not been as efficient this year. I believe the defense takes over at home, and the Packers win by over a field goal.
- Pick: Packers -3 (-105)
Chiefs vs 49ers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1.5 (-110) | +100 | Over 47 (-110) |
| San Francisco 49ers | -1.5 (-110) | -120 | Under 47 (-110) |
NFL Pick #2: Chiefs +1.5 (vs. 49ers)
The 49ers get their shot at revenge in Week 7 as they host the reigning Super Bowl Champions on Sunday. Will they avenge their Super Bowl loss in front of their fans, or will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs move to 6-0?
It would be difficult to bet against the Chiefs in this spot. They have not looked the best this season, but still, they have made it to 5-0. Not only is Patrick Mahomes great as an underdog, the Chiefs are coming off a bye. Mahomes is 10-3 straight up and 11-1-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career. He also plays great away from Arrowhead, as he is 46-12 straight up when playing on the road or a neutral field.
Patrick Mahomes against the spread as an underdog
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WMahomes is 11-1-1 ATS as a dog. ✅
83% of bets are on @Chiefs +1.5 at 49ers (@BetMGM) pic.twitter.com/RRUWaApyO6
— John Ewing (@johnewing) October 16, 2024
Both teams have had extra rest heading into this game. The 49ers last played on Thursday Night Football, and the Chiefs had a bye last week. Going back to 2003, Andy Reid is 62-27 (70%) straight up and 50-38-1 (57%) against the spread on extended rest. In that span, he is 16-9-1 (64%) against the spread as an underdog.
Both teams have battled through some injuries this season, but Kansas City has done a much better job at handling them given their 5-0 record. The Chiefs are missing Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco, but Kareem Hunt, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Travis Kelce have all stepped up over the past couple of weeks. I am not worried about the Chiefs offense, especially coming off a bye.
Kansas City’s defense has also been phenomenal. So while people like to talk about Patrick Mahomes and the offense, I believe the defense will be the difference and why the Chiefs will win on Sunday.
- Pick: Chiefs +1.5 (-110)
Chargers vs Cardinals Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | -2.5 (-115) | -145 | Over 44 (-110) |
| Arizona Cardinals | +2.5 (-105) | +120 | Under 44 (-110) |
NFL Pick #3: Chargers -2.5 (vs. Cardinals)
Road favorites have been covering the spread at an incredible rate over the last few weeks in the NFL, and the Chargers are the road favorite I like the most in Week 7.
The Chargers are allowing just 13.2 points per game, which is the lowest in the NFL. They have also allowed only 97 rushing yards and 192 passing yards per game this season. On paper, the Cardinals should have the offense to test Los Angeles, but they have been out of sorts over the last few weeks. Arizona has only scored more than 14 points once in their last four games, and they could be without Marvin Harrison Jr. on Monday night.
Under Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers want to run the ball. They have not been particularly explosive, but they have been efficient. Arizona’s defense has not been able to stop anyone, so I do not expect Justin Herbert and co. to struggle to move the ball.
I like for yet another road favorite to cover the spread on Monday.
- Pick: Chargers -2.5 (-115)
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As we head into Week 7 of the NFL season, there are several intriguing matchups on the schedule that are sure to keep fans on the edge of their seats. With so many teams still in the hunt for a playoff spot, every game becomes crucial as we approach the halfway point of the season.
One of the most important aspects of betting on NFL games is understanding how to read and interpret the point spread. The point spread is a way for oddsmakers to level the playing field between two teams of differing skill levels. By giving one team a certain number of points, the oddsmakers are essentially handicapping the game to make it more even.
When making picks against the spread, it’s important to consider a variety of factors, including injuries, weather conditions, and recent performance. It’s also crucial to take into account trends and historical data when making your predictions.
In Week 7, there are several games that stand out as potential opportunities for bettors to cash in. One matchup to keep an eye on is the showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tennessee Titans. The Chiefs have been struggling in recent weeks, while the Titans have been playing some of their best football of the season. With the Titans getting points at home, they could be a solid pick against the spread.
Another game to watch is the battle between the Los Angeles Rams and the Detroit Lions. The Rams have been one of the top teams in the league this season, but the Lions have shown flashes of brilliance as well. With the Lions getting points at home, they could be a sneaky pick to cover the spread.
Ultimately, making picks against the spread requires a combination of research, analysis, and a bit of luck. By staying informed and keeping up with the latest news and trends, bettors can increase their chances of making successful picks in Week 7 and beyond. Good luck!