Analysis of UFC 307 Matchup: Pereira vs Rountree – Odds, Picks, Predictions & Props

• UFC 307 takes place this Saturday, October 5, at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah
  • Light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira defends his title against Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event
  • Read on for UFC 307 odds, predictions, and props for the top fights on the main card

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UFC 307 is just around the corner, and we have quite a main event to look forward to this Saturday. The light heavyweight title is on the line as the champion Alex Pereira squares off against the rising Khalil Rountree Jr.

Elsewhere on the UFC 307 main card, a women’s bantamweight title fight comes into focus. Champion Raquel Pennington (-170) is favored over former titleholder Julianna PeñaRaquel Pennington in the co-main event.

Let’s dive into the UFC betting odds and my best UFC 307 predictions for Saturday.

UFC 307 Odds

Alex Pereira is a heavy favorite (-470) in the main event against Khalil Rountree Jr. (+360), with the UFC odds suggesting a potential early finish. In the co-main event, Raquel Pennington (-170) is favored over Julianna Pena (+142), but the odds are closer.

Odds as of October 3, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Take advantage of the DraftKings promo code to bet on UFC 307.

Here’s the lowdown on the schedule:

•  Early prelims: 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+
• Prelims: 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPNEWS/ESPN+
• Main card: 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ pay-per-view

Let’s break down these fights and see where the smart money’s at.

Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Prediction

The main event features a striking battle between light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira (-470) and knockout artist Khalil Rountree Jr. (+360). Pereira has been dominant, finishing his last three title fights by KO. His versatility in the striking department is what stands out, as he can finish fights with punches, knees, elbows, or head kicks.

Rountree, meanwhile, is on a five-fight win streak with four knockouts, flexing his raw power. He’ll look to keep the fight standing and engage in a striking battle with Pereira.

However, I believe Pereira’s experience and composure will be the key deciding factors in this one. I forecast the champ to utilize leg kicks to set up his powerful right hand or left hook.

Interestingly, if anyone attempts a takedown in this fight, it might be Pereira, not Rountree. Despite both fighters being known for their striking, Pereira might surprise everyone by shooting for a takedown if he feels pressured by Rountree’s power.

While Rountree is arguably the most powerful striker Pereira has faced at light heavyweight, the champion’s knockout power and composure make him very hard to bet against. I predict he will get it done inside the distance on Saturday night.

• Prediction: Alex Pereira wins by KO/TKO in Round 2

Raquel Pennington vs Julianna Peña Pick

The co-main event features a women’s bantamweight title fight between champion Raquel Pennington (-170) and former titleholder Julianna Peña (+142). Pennington is on a six-fight win streak, while Peña aims to reclaim the belt she lost to Amanda Nunes in 2022.

Peña’s aggressive style and strong ground game will pose problems for Pennington. However, the champion’s striking and takedown defense should help her keep the fight standing.

I think this one is going to go down to the wire, but Pennington’s consistency and cardio will prove to be the difference. There’s nice value on the champ to win this bout via decision.

• Prediction: Raquel Pennington wins by decision

Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista Prediction

Former featherweight champion Jose Aldo (+124) faces rising contender Mario Bautista (-148) in a bantamweight clash. At 38, Aldo has won four of his last five fights and remains a dangerous striker with excellent takedown defense.

All my homies love Jose Aldo Jr. pic.twitter.com/cbXWLJQnS0

— Feño 🏴 (@fenoxsky) October 1, 2024

Meanwhile, Bautista, 31, is on a six-fight win streak and brings a well-rounded skill set to the octagon. The Nevada native has a 60% implied chance to get the win here, although I’m not 100 percent sold on him being favored.

While Bautista’s wrestling could challenge Aldo, the Brazilian’s experience and striking ability give him the edge. If Aldo can keep the fight standing and utilize his legendary leg kicks, he has a great chance to secure the upset victory.

• Prediction: Jose Aldo wins by decision

UFC 307 Quick Picks

Stephen Thompson (+185) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-210):
Buckley’s wrestling and power give him the clear edge over the aging Thompson. Pick: Buckley via TKO (Round 2)

Roman Dolidze (+130) vs. Kevin Holland (-155):
Dolidze’s grappling and size advantage make him a live underdog against the inconsistent Holland. Pick: Dolidze via decision

Carla Esparza (+145) vs. Tecia Pennington (-175):
Pennington’s striking and cardio should help her overcome Esparza’s wrestling in the former champion’s retirement fight. Pick: Pennington via decision

UFC 307 is set to feature an exciting matchup between Michel Pereira and Khalil Rountree Jr. Both fighters are known for their explosive styles and knockout power, making this fight a must-watch for MMA fans.

Pereira, also known as “Demolidor,” is a Brazilian fighter with a record of 26 wins and 11 losses. He is known for his flashy striking techniques and acrobatic moves inside the octagon. Pereira is coming off a win in his last fight and will be looking to continue his momentum against Rountree.

On the other hand, Rountree, also known as “The War Horse,” is an American fighter with a record of 9 wins and 5 losses. Rountree is a powerful striker with knockout power in both hands. He is coming off a loss in his last fight and will be looking to bounce back with a win against Pereira.

In terms of odds, Pereira is currently the favorite to win the fight with odds of -150, while Rountree is the underdog with odds of +130. This means that a $150 bet on Pereira would net a $100 profit, while a $100 bet on Rountree would net a $130 profit.

As for picks and predictions, this fight is expected to be a close one with both fighters having the potential to finish the fight early. Pereira’s flashy striking and acrobatic moves could give him the edge in the stand-up exchanges, while Rountree’s power could be a game-changer if he lands clean shots.

In terms of props, there are several options available for betting on this fight. Some popular props include betting on the method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), round betting (which round the fight will end), and over/under on total rounds.

Overall, this matchup between Pereira and Rountree is shaping up to be an exciting one with both fighters having the potential to steal the show. MMA fans can expect fireworks when these two fighters step into the octagon at UFC 307.