Week 1 NFL Parlay Picks: Two Sets of Predictions Available for Free

Aug 18, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix warms up in the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

• The first NFL Sunday of the 2024-25 season includes 13 games on the schedule, which is the perfect recipe for a great NFL parlay
• Whether you want to play a safer, less aggressive, higher-probability NFL parlay or want a longshot, big potential payout NFL parlay, I have picks & predictions for both
• See below for my favorite Week 1 NFL parlays

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The first NFL Sunday of the 2024-25 NFL season upon us, and we have eight potential betting opportunities at 1pm ET, another four games in the 4:05-4:25pm window, and a Sunday night game. A total of 13 games all happening within one day is part of the beauty of an NFL Sunday. It’s also a great opportunity for a good NFL parlay. After all, most sportsbooks are offering bonuses around parlays each Sunday – be sure to checkout the best odds boosts and all-user bonuses available today.

In crafting my parlay for the first NFL Sunday, I wanted to offer two different versions: one long shot parlay with big potential payout, and one higher-probability parlay that hovers around +100 odds. Some sportsbooks give me a slightly higher max bet on their parlay bonuses, so I like to play those ones a little safer, while others cap me at a very small max bet, and I take these opportunities to swing for the fences. Now, I do appreciate “high probability” being associated with a parlay is a bit of an oxymoron, and just about any sharp bettor will tell you to avoid parlays. But those bettors aren’t appreciating that some people love betting for the entertainment value (or maybe lack the patience to play the slow and steady game). Whichever one you are, there is no judgement. All I’m handing out today are my two NFL parlays for Week 1 below.

Longshot NFL Parlay | Higher-Probability NFL Parlay

I’ll provide some brief analysis and justification for each NFL parlay below the tables featuring all the parlay legs.

Longshot Week 1 NFL Parlay

I have actually covered all but one of these picks in other articles I have written on SBD. But now we’re going to parlay them! DraftKings offered the best price for this NFL parlay. Every other sportsbook was coming in below 100-1 odds or didn’t allow the specific milestones I am after with three of the players included.

The first leg of the parlay is Bo Nix for 250+ passing yards. I mentioned the promising fit in Sean Payton’s offense for Bo Nix, along with how successful Payton’s offenses have been throwing the football, and what I believe is a positive matchup for the rookie against a Seahawks defense that wasn’t very good against the pass last year in my alternate lines for NFL player props article. The one leg in this parlay that I haven’t discussed yet is Greg Dulcich for 25+ yards. But you can see where I’m going with it after my Nix leg.

Dulcich likely won’t be an every-down TE for the Broncos, as Payton likes Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull better in the run game. But he is by far the best pass-catching TE on their roster. Dulcich got hurt after 21 snaps in Week 1 last year, but he hauled in two passes for 22 yards before he left. The year prior, which was not a team coached by Payton, he averaged 41.1 receiving yards per game. I think 25 is very likely in a game where the Broncos find themselves as much as six-point underdogs.

I covered the absurd price we are getting on a Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown in my best NFL TD scorer props for Week 1. As I said there, I think this is the last time we get plus-money on a Taylor TD this season (as long as Anthony Richardson stays healthy).

Next up is Malik Nabers for 90+ receiving yards. I also covered in the alt props to bet for Week 1 piece linked above. I think both Daniel Jones and Brian Daboll are feeling a bit of pressure, the former much more than the latter, and they’re going to need to win some games this season. When you look at the rest of the WR corps and their RB situation, I love Nabers to get peppered with targets and probably even some carries. They’re going to get him the ball as many times as possible, and I like the rookie to make good on the targets against a Vikings secondary who weren’t very good against the pass.

The last leg of this five-leg +10494 NFL parlay at DraftKings is the Cowboys moneyline. I mentioned them in my favorite NFL moneyline picks for Week 1. I don’t care how Deshaun Watson has looked in practice this summer. Until he shows us he can still play at a high-level in a real game, I have next to no confidence in him. He has looked very bad over the last two seasons in Cleveland. On the other hand, I feel like the Cowboys are going to be in must-win mode each week after yet another early exit from the playoffs last season. With extra time to prepare, I like Mike McCarthy to get Dak Prescott out of the pocket to help neutralize the Browns pass-rush. I like the Cowboys to get it done, since it’s only Week 1 and not the postseason.

Higher-Probability Week 1 NFL Parlay

Just like the longshot parlay above, DraftKings was the best sportsbook for this wager. All the other sportsbooks were either missing alt lines for team totals or didn’t offer the number I wanted.

The Jets defense ranked 12th in points allowed last season but they were 3rd in yards allowed. A good chunk of those points were the result of their offense turning the ball over 33 times, which was third-most in the league. New York only had two games go over 52 points last season, while 13 of them saw 40 points or less scored. With Aaron Rodgers back under center, I expect their offense to see major improvement, which is also going to result in improvements on the defensive side of the ball.

I like the Jets defense to give Brock Purdy trouble Monday night, but I also expect those Jets offensive improvement to be pushed back a week, as they will have to deal with the 3rd-ranked scoring defense from last year in the 49ers. I like this one to be very low scoring, but am playing a safer under 52.5 in Jets vs 49ers.

📊 Most passing yards in a season opener in NFL history:

1. Tom Brady (517 vs. Dolphins, 2011)
2. Dan Marino (473 vs. Patriots, 1994)
3. Tua Tagovailoa (466 vs. Chargers, 2023)

One of the greatest opening day performances ever 1️⃣ #GoFins pic.twitter.com/6yVYRHk4eD

— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) September 3, 2024

Prior to all the Bengals wide receiver issues for Week 1, they were the team I was most confident would win their respective game. But I’m not so sure anymore. The team I am now most confident will win is the Bills. I’m not on board with Josh Allen being overrated, and I think their offense will actually be more efficient without Stefon Diggs – though, it might take them a couple weeks to get going. Matt Milano being lost for most of the season is going to hurt Buffalo’s defense, but I think they’ll get enough stops for Buffalo to beat the Cardinals. This is why leg two of the parlay is Bills moneyline.

The final leg of this three-leg parlay is the Dolphins team total over 17.5. No team racked up more yards than the Dolphins last season, and only one team scored more points. I think this offense is also especially dangerous when the weather is warm down in Florida, which it is expected to be today – though, thunderstorms may delay the game a little. In their three September games last season, the Dolphins averaged 43.3 points per game. That number is a little inflated due to the 70 points they dropped against the Broncos, but their lowest scoring game was 24 points against a pretty decent Patriots defense. I don’t think the Jaguars defense will have much luck slowing Miami down either.

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