Aug 16, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) delivers a pitch against the Seattle Mariners during the fourth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
- Paul Skenes is back on the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates against Nick Lodolo for the Cincinnati Reds
- Skenes is mired in the roughest stretch of his young career
- Below, see the Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates odds, predictions, and player-prop picks for Aug. 22
An ugly 10-19 record since the All-Star break has dropped the Pittsburgh Pirates (59-67, 29-32 home) to the bottom of the NL Central and eight games out of the final NL Wild Card. On Thursday, the Bucs turn to rookie ace Paul Skenes as they start a four-game series with Nick Lodolo and the Cincinnati Reds (62-65, 31-31 away) at PNC Park at 6:40 pm ET.
Skenes has showed signs of fatigue over his last few starts and, as a result, Pittsburgh is only a modest -140 favorites in Thursday’s Reds vs Pirates odds.
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | +120 | +1.5 (-180) | O 7.5 (+100) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -140 | -1.5 (+150) | U 7.5 (-120) |
The Reds come back as +120 road underdogs in Thursday’s MLB odds and -180 on the runline to keep the score within a run. The over/under is sitting at 7.5 with the under favored at -120.
Both teams have trended to the under this season: Cincinnati is currently 59-62-6 O/U while Pittsburgh is 59-63-4.
Odds as of August 22 at bet365. New users can claim a bet365 casino bonus code today.
Nick Lodolo vs Paul Skenes
| 9-5 | Record | 7-2 |
| 4.55 | ERA | 2.30 |
| 3.80 | xERA | 2.72 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 0.97 |
| 23.9% | K% | 31.8% |
Skenes has allowed multiple runs in three straight starts. Prior to this mini-skid, he had only allowed multiple runs in back-to-back starts one time in his first 14 career starts. His ERA has “ballooned” from 1.90 to 2.30 over his last three starts.
Control has been a bigger issue; Skenes has issued eight walks in his last 17.1 innings, which equals 4.15 walks per nine innings, significantly higher than his average of 2.2 BB/9.
His last start was a step back in the right direction, though. Skenes went 6.0 innings in a 5-3 win over the Mariners, allowing two runs on three hits and four walks with six strikeouts.
His only other career start against the Reds was a gem, tossing six innings of six-hit, one-run ball with seven Ks in a 4-1 Pittsburgh victory on June 17.
Cincinnati starter Lodolo has been trending in the wrong direction since the All-Star break. The 6’6 lefty was rocking a solid 3.30 ERA at the break, which was gone up over a full run to 4.55 in his last seven starts.
The third-year starter was hammered for eight runs on eight hits and two walks over just 2.1 innings by the Royals last time out. That was the second time in Lodolo’s last four starts that he surrendered eight earned runs. He hadn’t previously allowed more than four this season.
The good news for Lodolo is that he’s had his share of success against the Bucs. Back on June 18, he limited Pittsburgh to just one run on four hits over 7.0 innings with eight strikeouts in a 2-1 Reds victory.
In his only start against Pittsburgh last year, he allowed two runs on seven hits and two walks over 5.0 innings with another nine Ks in a 6-2 Cincinnati victory.
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
I am not too worried about Skenes fading. He has only pitched 98.0 innings this season, and his fastball velocity is still high (98.8 MPH average). Cincinnati’s lineup is well below average in wRC+ (94, 24th in MLB), and Skenes has already recorded one quality start against the Reds.
The Reds are also one of the worst strikeout teams in the league; their 24.6% K-rate is the sixth-highest among the 30 teams in the league, which obviously plays to Skenes’ strengths.
I’m not going to go crazy fading Lodolo. Yes, he’s had a couple rough outings lately, but he’s a talented pitcher whose peripherals suggest his 4.55 ERA is partly a product of bad luck. Instead, I’m going to back an ambitious under along with Skenes to go over his strikeout number.
CIN vs PIT picks:
- First 5 innings under 2.5 runs (+180) at DraftKings
- Skenes over 7.5 Ks (-113) at FanDuel
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
The Cincinnati Reds will be facing off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 22nd in what is sure to be an exciting matchup. With both teams vying for a spot in the playoffs, this game is crucial for their postseason hopes.
One of the key factors to consider when placing bets on this game is the betting odds. As of now, the Reds are slight favorites with odds of -120, while the Pirates are underdogs with odds of +110. These odds indicate that the sportsbooks believe the Reds have a slightly better chance of winning the game.
When it comes to predictions for this game, it’s important to consider the starting pitchers. The Reds will be sending Nick Lodolo to the mound, while the Pirates will counter with Max Kranick. Lodolo has been solid for the Reds this season, posting a 3.89 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Kranick, on the other hand, has struggled with a 5.73 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Based on these numbers, it’s likely that Lodolo will have the edge in this pitching matchup.
In terms of player props, there are a few options to consider for this game. One prop bet to keep an eye on is the over/under on total runs scored. The over/under for this game is currently set at 8.5 runs. Given the pitching matchup and the offensive firepower of both teams, it’s possible that this game could see a high-scoring affair.
Another player prop to consider is the over/under on strikeouts for Lodolo and Kranick. The over/under for Lodolo is set at 6.5 strikeouts, while Kranick’s over/under is set at 4.5 strikeouts. Considering Lodolo’s strong strikeout numbers this season, it’s possible that he could exceed his over/under in this game.
Overall, this game between the Reds and Pirates has the potential to be a close and competitive matchup. With betting odds favoring the Reds and predictions leaning towards a strong performance from Lodolo, it will be interesting to see how this game plays out on August 22nd.
