Jul 23, 2023; Long Pond, Pennsylvania, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver William Byron (24) leads during the HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports
- NASCAR Great American Getaway 400 goes down this Sunday at Pocono Raceway
- Denny Hamlin is favored in the NASCAR odds despite struggling in his last five races
- Below, see NASCAR Great American Getaway 400 predictions, odds and longshot picks
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Pocono Mountains for the Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway this Sunday, July 14. Known as “The Tricky Triangle,” Pocono’s unique three-turn layout always produces entertaining racing. The green flag drops at 2:30 p.m. ET with live coverage on USA Network.
Oddsmakers have tabbed Denny Hamlin as the betting favorite, but there are plenty of other contenders in the mix. Here’s a look at the odds to win Sunday’s race:
NASCAR Great American Gateway 400 Odds
| Winner | Winner Odds | Top 3 Finish | Top 5 Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +450 | +125 | -175 |
| Kyle Larson | +550 | +160 | -125 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +700 | +190 | -105 |
| Tyler Reddick | +850 | +200 | +110 |
| Christopher Bell | +850 | +200 | +110 |
| William Byron | +900 | +260 | +115 |
| Chase Elliott | +900 | +260 | +115 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1200 | +350 | +155 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1400 | +400 | +180 |
| Kyle Busch | +1600 | +450 | +210 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1800 | +500 | +230 |
| Ross Chastain | +2200 | +650 | +280 |
| Joey Logano | +2200 | +650 | +280 |
| Chris Buescher | +2200 | +650 | +280 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2200 | +650 | +280 |
| Alex Bowman | +3000 | +850 | +380 |
Odds as of July 12, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings promo code to wager on the Great American Gateway 400. Make sure to also check out FanDuel Sportsbook for more expansive betting options, such as top-10 finish.
At +450 odds, Hamlin has an implied probability of 20% to take the checkered flag. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been dominant at Pocono with seven career wins, but does he offer betting value? Let’s dive into some predictions.
NASCAR Great American Gateway Predictions
While Hamlin is the deserving favorite given his Pocono expertise, I’m not rushing to the betting window at +450. The 42-year-old is mired in a five-race slump and hasn’t led 50 laps in a race since early May. Hamlin should contend for the win, but there are other short-odds drivers I prefer.
Kyle Larson (+550) is still searching for his first Pocono victory, but it feels like only a matter of time. The 2021 series champ has led laps in five of his last seven Pocono starts and paced the field for 24 circuits last season before a late wreck. Larson’s No. 5 Chevy has been one of the fastest cars all year.
Christopher Bell (+850) and Tyler Reddick (+850) are two more drivers with plenty of upside. Bell has flashed speed all season and boasts top-6 finishes in two of his last three Pocono starts. Reddick has been red-hot with three straight podiums, six top-8s in his last seven races overall, and four straight top-11s at Pocono.
After weighing the data, Reddick is my pick to win Sunday’s race. The 26-year-old has been on a heater and Richard Childress Racing has found the right setup for the new aero package. Reddick finished second and first in the two races leading into Pocono, making his +850 price an attractive bet.
Speaking of attractive bets, Martin Truex Jr. at -105 for a top-5 is one of my favorite props. The 2015 Pocono winner has been one of the most consistent performers at the Tricky Triangle with seven top-7s in his last nine starts. Look for another strong run from MTJ on Sunday.
- Winner prediction: Tyler Reddick (+850)
- Top-5 finish pick: Martin Truex Jr. (-105)
- DraftKings head-to-head: Truex Jr. (-125) vs William Bryon
NASCAR Pocono Raceway Longshots & Value Bets
Looking further down the oddsboard, there are a few longshot bets worth considering at Pocono. Bubba Wallace leads my list at +2200 to win and -195 for a top-10. Wallace has finished 11th or better in his last three Pocono starts, including a 5th-place result in 2021.
Toyota equipment is always stout at Pocono and Wallace’s 23XI Racing team has made big gains after a slow start to 2024. You can’t go wrong taking a flier on Wallace at +2200, as a simple $10 bet would payout $220 if successful.
Bubba Wallace gonna get heat for this. pic.twitter.com/KUpCx7pdLh
— Darian Gilliam (@BlackFlagMatter) July 8, 2024
Michael McDowell is another live longshot at +8000 to win and +2200 for a top-5. The veteran has taken a big step forward with Front Row Motorsports’ Gen-7 program, qualifying in the top-10 in half the races this season. McDowell also has respectable Pocono results of 6th and 19th in the Next Gen car. He’s not just a superspeedway specialist anymore.
One more under-the-radar bet I like is Ty Gibbs at +1200 to win. The rookie has flashed his talent with three top-10s in his last five starts, including a runner-up in Charlotte. Gibbs finished 5th in his second Pocono Cup start last year and won an Xfinity Series race in 2022. He’s got the speed and the number to pull off the upset on Sunday.
- Longshot picks to win: Bubba Wallace (+2200, Ty Gibbs (+1200)
- Top-5 finish pick: Michael McDowell (+2220)
- Top-10 finish pick: Bubba Wallace (-195 at FanDuel)
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
The NASCAR Great American Getaway is set to take place on Sunday, July 14th, and fans are gearing up for an exciting race filled with high-speed action and intense competition. As the drivers prepare to take on the challenging track, many are wondering what the odds are for their favorite racers, what predictions can be made, and if any longshot picks could potentially come out on top.
When analyzing the odds for the Great American Getaway, it’s important to consider a variety of factors that can impact a driver’s chances of success. These factors include past performance at the track, current form, team dynamics, and overall skill level. Additionally, weather conditions, track conditions, and pit strategy can all play a role in determining the outcome of the race.
Based on recent performances and overall track record, some of the top contenders for the Great American Getaway include Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex Jr. These drivers have consistently shown strong performances this season and have a proven track record of success at similar tracks. Their experience and skill level make them solid choices for fans looking to place bets on the race.
In terms of predictions, it’s always difficult to accurately predict the outcome of a NASCAR race due to the unpredictable nature of the sport. However, based on recent trends and performances, it’s likely that we will see a close battle between the top drivers mentioned above. The race could come down to strategy on pit road, tire management, and overall speed on the track.
For fans looking to take a risk and potentially cash in on a longshot pick, drivers like Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, or Ryan Blaney could be worth considering. These drivers have shown flashes of brilliance this season and have the potential to surprise everyone with a strong performance at the Great American Getaway. While they may not be the favorites to win, they could certainly shake up the leaderboard and provide an exciting finish to the race.
Overall, the NASCAR Great American Getaway promises to be an exciting and unpredictable race filled with thrills and excitement. As fans eagerly await the green flag on Sunday, July 14th, they can analyze the odds, make their predictions, and consider taking a chance on a longshot pick in hopes of cashing in on a big win. Regardless of the outcome, one thing is for certain – this race is sure to be one for the books.
