Jun 10, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants pinch hitter Austin Slater (13) hits a walk-off RBI single against the Houston Astros during the tenth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
- A great pitching matchup is on tap in San Francisco this afternoon when the Astros’ Framber Valdez faces the Giants’ Logan Webb
- The teams have combined for just 11 runs during the first two games of the series
- Below, see the Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants odds, predictions, and starting-pitcher stats
Still six games under .500 as the 2024 MLB season inches closer the halfway point, the Houston Astros (31-37, 14-19 away) look to build off last night’s 3-1 victory when they face the San Francisco Giants (33-35, 18-15 home) in the rubbermatch of a three-game set at Oracle Park at 12:45 pm PT/3:45 pm ET.
With ace Logan Webb on the mound, San Francisco is listed as a slight -115 home favorite in the Astros vs Giants odds for Wednesday afternoon.
Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros (Valdez) | -105 | -1.5 (+165) | O 7.5 (-100) |
| San Francisco Giants (Webb) | -115 | +1.5 (-200) | U 7.5 (-120) |
Wednesday’s MLB odds list the Astros as -105 underdogs to win a near-pick’em game. The game total is sitting at just 7.5 and the odds significantly favor the under (-100o/-120u).
Houston has been the single-best under bet in baseball this season, going 24-41-3 over/under. The Giants, however, have been the sixth-best over bet, with a 35-31-2 O/U record after 68 games.
Despite trailing the Mariners by 7.5 games in the AL West, Houston is still an optimistic +340 second-favorite to win the West for the fourth straight year (and seventh time in eight seasons) in the current MLB division odds. Nine games behind the powerhouse LA Dodgers, San Francisco is +3000 to win just its second division title since 2012.
Framber Valdez vs Logan Webb
| 5-3 | Record | 5-5 |
| 3.53 | ERA | 2.92 |
| 3.75 | xERA | 4.61 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.20 |
| 19.8% | K% | 20.7% |
Thirty-year-old lefty Framber Valdez was absolutely electric in his last start. The stocky Dominican pitched a complete-game four-hitter during a 7-1 win over the Angels, striking out eight. The start prior, he allowed just one run on two hits over 7.0 innings against the Twins, striking out four.
Those two gems lowered his ERA from an uncharacteristically high 4.34 to 3.53. After posting a 5.86 ERA in his rookie year in 2019, Valdez has finished every season with an ERA of 3.57 or lower.
There is minimal history between Valdez and the current San Francisco lineup. Seven players on the Giants have faced Valdez a total of 44 times with a .250 average and .684 OPS. Jorge Soler is the only Giant with an extra-base hit off Valdez, taking him yard twice in 12 at-bats.
According to his peripherals, Logan Webb has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.92 ERA is almost two runs lower than his xERA (4.61), though his xFIP is only 3.09. His BABIP is well above league-average at .318 but he’s also allowing a lot of hard contact (52.7% hard-hit rate), indicating the inflated BABIP isn’t a fluke that’s apt to regress.
Webb has been fairly solid against stiff competition over his last five starts (Rangers, Yankees, Mets, Pirates, Dodgers). He’s lasted at least 6.0 innings in all five and gone 7.0 in each of his last three. He’s allowed just eight earned runs over 33.0 innings in that span with 0.909 WHIP and 31 strikeouts.
Like Valdez, there isn’t a ton of history between Webb and the Houston lineup. In 40 total at-bats, Astro hitters are slashing .275/.326/.350 off of Webb with just one home run (Alex Bregman), no doubles and no triples. Webb has only recorded eight strikeouts in those 40 at-bats, though.
Valdez is currently 15th in the AL Cy Young odds at +5375 while Webb has faded to eighth in the NL at +1775.
Astros vs Giants Prediction for June 12
With Valdez and Webb on the mound against lineups that aren’t terribly familiar with them, I have a strong lean to the under in the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. Over the first two games of the series, the Houston starters have combined for 11.2 innings, while the San Francisco starters have combined for 11.0, meaning neither bullpen has been too taxed over the last 48 hours.
But I also don’t expect Valdez to be spotless after throwing a season-high 106 pitches last time out. Valdez only threw that many pitches three times last season and, in his next start, he never posted a GSC higher than 60.0.
HOU vs SF picks:
- Under 7.5 (-120)
- Giants moneyline (-115)
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
The Houston Astros are set to face off against the San Francisco Giants on June 12 in what promises to be an exciting matchup between two talented teams. Both teams have been performing well this season, with the Astros currently leading the American League West and the Giants sitting atop the National League West.
The Astros will be sending ace pitcher Zack Greinke to the mound for this game. Greinke has been a reliable starter for the Astros this season, posting a 6-2 record with a 3.38 ERA. He will be looking to shut down the Giants’ potent lineup and help lead his team to victory.
On the other side, the Giants will be countering with their own ace, Kevin Gausman. Gausman has been dominant on the mound this season, boasting a 7-0 record with a 1.27 ERA. He will be looking to continue his stellar performance and help the Giants secure a win against the Astros.
In terms of odds, the Astros are currently favored to win this matchup, with most sportsbooks giving them a slight edge over the Giants. However, with both teams playing well this season, this game could easily go either way.
As for predictions, this game has all the makings of a close and competitive matchup. Both teams have strong pitching staffs and potent lineups, so it could come down to which team executes better on the day. Ultimately, I predict that the Astros will come out on top in a close game, with Greinke outdueling Gausman on the mound.
Overall, this matchup between the Astros and Giants promises to be an exciting game between two talented teams vying for supremacy in their respective divisions. Fans can expect a hard-fought battle between these two teams, with both sides giving it their all to come out on top. Be sure to tune in on June 12 to catch all the action!
