Jun 9, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving (11) shoots the ball against Boston Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis (8) during the fourth quarter in game two of the 2024 NBA Finals at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
- The Dallas Mavericks head home in an 0-2 hole in their best-of-seven NBA Finals with the Boston Celtics
- The Mavericks are slight 2.5-point home favorites to win Game 3 on Wednesday, June 12
- See the Game 3 Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks predictions, odds, and public-betting splits
Game 3 between the Boston Celtics (78-20, 33-14 away, 50-43-5 ATS) and Dallas Mavericks (62-39, 32-20 home, 58-42-1 ATS) on Wednesday night will determine whether the 2024 NBA Finals is an actual series or a runaway.
After a pair of victories at home, the Celtics can take a 3-0 stranglehold on the best-of-seven series in Game 3 at American Airlines Center in Dallas (8:40 pm ET). But the Celtics vs Mavericks odds list the home team as a small favorite to close the gap. Dallas is currently a 2.5-point favorite against a Boston team that will likely be missing Kristaps Porzingis.
Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Prediction
- Mavericks first quarter-1.5 (-108)
- Under 213 points (-110)
Wednesday’s game will mark just the third time in 98 games this season that Boston has been an underdog. The C’s are 1-2 straight-up in the previous three. They crushed Sacramento 144-119 on the road as four-point underdogs with a depleted lineup on Dec. 12, but lost twice at Milwaukee, falling by 23 as two-point underdogs on Jan. 11 (135-102) and by 13 as 3.5-point underdogs on April 9 (104-91).
Boston is likely to be shorthanded again on Wednesday due to Porzingis’ “serious” leg injury (more on that below) and his absence is going to be a welcome sight for any and all Mavericks hoping to finish around the rim. Porzingis racked up five blocks in just 44 total minutes during Games 1 and 2, and he was a serious part of the MVP conversation despite coming off the bench.
The Celtics were in a similar position in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Pacers, winning two at home before the series shifted to Indiana for Games 3 and 4. Boston somehow left Indianapolis with a sweep despite trailing both games by as many as nine points in the fourth quarter.
I expect the adage about teams coming home down 0-2 to hold true tonight, meaning a big first-quarter and first-half performance from the desperate Mavericks. Despite remaining on the Dallas injury report, Doncic showed in Game 2 (32 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists in 42 minutes) that he’s fully healthy, and if his supporting cast – especially Kyrie Irving, who has just 28 points on 35.1% shooting in the series – can even marginally improve, Dallas should be able to build an early lead against a Boston team missing its best rim protector.
I am also going to bet the under in Game 3, motivated largely by the pace-of-play exhibited so far in the series. Boston, in particular, has been in no hurry to run the floor. Overall, their pace has dropped from 97.98 in the regular season all the way to 92.62 in the postseason. Dallas is also playing at a considerably slower tempo, dropping from 100.60 to 93.63.
Celtics vs Mavericks Odds for Game 3
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | +2.5 (-110) | +114 | O 213 (-110) |
| Dallas Mavericks | -2.5 (-110) | -135 | U 213 (-110) |
The Celtics vs Mavericks odds for Game 3 are fairly uniform across all sportsbooks by this point. The seven main North American books (BetMGM, bet365, Caesars, DraftKings, ESPN Bet, Fanatics, and FanDuel) all list the spread at 2.5 points. The best odds on the Celtics +2.5 are -105 at Caesars, while the best odds on Dallas -2.5 are -110 (at five different books).
The best moneyline price on Boston can also be found at Caesars, not coincidentally, where the Celtics are priced at +130. The best moneyline price on Dallas is -135 at DraftKings.
Wednesday’s NBA odds show considerably more variation on the game total. The over/under is as low as 212.5 at BetMGM and as high as 213.5 at Fanatics and FanDuel.
BOS vs DAL Game 3 Injury Reports
The big news after Game 2 was the leg injury to Porzingis, who piled up 32 points, 10 rebounds, and five blocks in just 44 minutes over the first two games of the series. Porzingis is officially listed as “questionable” on the Boston injury report but his injury – technically described as “”torn medial retinaculum, allowing dislocation of the posterior tibialis tendon” – has been described as “serious” and the expectation is that Porzingis will not be in the lineup.
The only good news for Boston is that their 7’2 center is the only player on the C’s injury report.
On the Dallas side, Luka Doncic is still listed on the injury report – listed as “probable” – with his lingering knee and ankle issues. Doncic had a 32-point triple-double in the Mavs’ 105-98 Game 2 loss, playing 42 minutes.
Boston vs Dallas Betting Splits for Game 3
| Team | Spread | ATS Handle% | ATS Bet% | Total Points | O/U Handle% | O/U Bet% | Moneyline | ML Handle% | ML Bet% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | +2.5 | 63% | 68% | 213 | 72% | 77% | +114 | 34% | 41% |
| Dallas Mavericks | -2.5 | 37% | 32% | 213 | 28% | 23% | -135 | 66% | 59% |
The NBA public-betting splits for Game 3 tonight show an interesting dichotomy. The Celtics are getting 63% of the ATS handle as 2.5-point road underdogs, but the Mavericks are getting 66% of moneyline handle as -135 home favorites.
The public is, for the third straight game, hammering the over. Despite the first two games staying under (by 18.5 and 11.5 points, respectively), the public has put 72% of game-total handle on the over as of 10 am ET, along with 77% of the wagers.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
The Boston Celtics are set to face off against the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3 of their highly anticipated matchup. Both teams have shown impressive performances so far in the series, with each team securing a win in the first two games. As they head into Game 3, fans and analysts alike are eager to see how the teams will perform and who will come out on top.
In terms of predictions, it’s difficult to say which team will emerge victorious in Game 3. The Celtics have shown strong offensive capabilities, with Jayson Tatum leading the charge and Kemba Walker providing valuable support. On the other hand, the Mavericks have been impressive as well, with Luka Doncic showcasing his skills and Kristaps Porzingis making a significant impact on both ends of the court.
When it comes to odds, sportsbooks have the Celtics as slight favorites to win Game 3. However, the Mavericks have proven that they are a formidable opponent and should not be underestimated. It’s likely to be a close game, with both teams fighting hard for the win.
In terms of injuries, both teams have key players who are dealing with various ailments. The Celtics are without Gordon Hayward, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. On the Mavericks side, Porzingis has been dealing with knee soreness but is expected to play in Game 3. These injuries could potentially impact the outcome of the game and will be something to keep an eye on.
When it comes to public-betting splits, it’s important to note that these can fluctuate leading up to game time. As of now, the public seems to be slightly favoring the Celtics in terms of betting. However, this could change as more information becomes available and as tip-off approaches.
Overall, Game 3 between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks is shaping up to be an exciting matchup. Both teams have shown that they have what it takes to come out on top, and it will be interesting to see how things unfold on the court. Fans can expect a competitive game with plenty of action and drama, making it a must-watch for basketball enthusiasts everywhere.