Jan. 13, 2024
- NC State and Louisville meet in the first round of the 2024 ACC Tournament on Tuesday afternoon
- Louisville finished last in the regular season at just 3-17, while the Wolfpack were 9-11
- See the NC State vs Louisville odds, player props, and prediction for March 12
The 2024 ACC Tournament gets underway on March 12 with a trio of first-round games, including the 10th-seeded NC State Wolfpack (17-14, 9-11 ACC, 1-2 neutral, 13-17-1 ATS) facing the 16th-seeded Louisville Cardinals (8-23, 3-17 ACC, 0-2 neutral, 12-18-1 ATS) at 1:30 pm ET at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC.
NC State was relegated to a bottom-six seed – and forced into first-round action – due to a season-ending four game losing streak. But the reeling Wolfpack are nonetheless heavy favorites over the ACC’s cellar-dwelling Cardinals.
NC State vs Louisville Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State Wolfpack | -9.5 (-115) | -450 | Over 148.5 (-115) |
| Louisville Cardinals | +9.5 (-105) | +360 | Under 148.5 (-105) |
The NC State vs Louisville odds favor the Wolfpack by 9.5 points on a neutral court in DC. NC State is also a heavy -450 moneyline favorite to advance to the second round, where seventh-seeded Syracuse awaits the winner.
Odds as of March 11 at ESPN Bet. Claim the ESPN Bet North Carolina promo today.
In the latest the March Madness bracket projection, the ACC had six teams in (UNC, Duke, Virginia, Pitt, Clemson, and Wake Forest). Both NC State and Louisville need a miracle run to the ACC title to qualify for the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
Wolfpack Bring Four-Game Skid into ACC Tournament
NC State was poised to get a first-round bye – and was still in contention for a top-four seed – entering the final two weeks of the season at 9-7 in conference play. An ill-time four-game losing streak dropped the Wolfpack all the way to tenth.
The good news for NC State fans is that three of those four losses came on the road, and three were also against top-four teams in the conference (UNC, Duke, and Pitt). Only one of the setbacks came by double-digits (79-64 vs Duke), though the Wolfpack only managed to cover the spread once.
Head coach Kevin Keatts will certainly be preaching better start on Tuesday. Last time out, his Wolfpack were outscored 39-29 in the first half at Pitt on March 9.
Making matters worse, senior guard and leading scorer DJ Horne (16.8 PPG) was suffered a hip flexor injury in the setback to Pitt. He managed just three points in 12 minutes against the Panthers and his status for the ACC Tournament is unclear. He was a limited participant in the team’s practice on Monday.
NC State rates 76th in overall efficiency at KenPom and 69th at Haslametrics. They have been considerably better on offense (69th) than defense (104th).
Louisville Hasn’t Won a Game in Over a Month
Amid the darkest time in the storied history of the program, Louisville managed just eight wins on the season and only three in conference play. While both of those are steps up from last year (4-28 overall, 2-18 ACC), they remained – by a wide margin – the lowest-rated team in the ACC (197th at KenPom and 196 at Haslametrics). Second-lowest was Georgia Tech at 126 while every other team won at least double the games in ACC play.
Louisville enters the ACC Tournament on a seven-game losing streak. Four of those losses came by at least 12 points and the Cardinals were also an absurd 0-7 against the spread in that span.
Last time out, the dropped a 67-61 decision at home to Boston College as 4.5-point underdogs. As they have been for much of the season, Louisville’s four-guard lineup was crushed on the glass (42-31) by the Eagles.
The Cardinals finished the regular season ranked an identical 206th in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
NC State won the only regular-season meeting between the teams, 89-83 in Louisville. The Wolfpack started the game on a 12-0 run and Louisville never got closer than a bucket thereafter. A late 11-0 run did allow the Cardinals to cover as 7.5-point home underdogs.
NC State vs Louisville Player Props
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Three-Pointers Made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (LOU) | 14.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) | 7.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) | OFF | OFF |
| Casey Morsell (NC ST) | 11.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) | 3.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) | 2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) | 0.5 (Ov -225 | Un +165) |
| DJ Burns Jr (NC ST) | 14.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) | 4.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) | 2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) | OFF |
| Mike James (LOU) | 12.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) | 4.5 (Ov -100 | Un -140) | OFF | 0.5 (Ov -245 | Un +180) |
College basketball player props as of March 12 at DraftKings.
With Horne’s status unclear, senior forward DJ Burns Jr has the highest point total of the Wolfpack at 14.5, while Louisville’s leading scorer, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, is at the same number for the Cardinals.
NC State vs Louisville Prediction
There is very little reason to get behind Louisville at this point. They haven’t won or covered a game since Feb. 19 (a 79-67 win over Georgia Tech). NC State is stuck in a discouraging rut of its own, though, and the Cardinals were somewhat competitive when the teams met in the regular season.
If the Wolfpack were fully healthy, I might feel differently. Horne is less than 100%, though, and I have a hard time seeing this NC State team routing anyone as things currently stand.
NC State vs LOU picks: Louisville +9.5 (-110)
Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:
- ATS: 17-19 (-3.59 units)
- Moneyline: 2-9 (-9.48 units)
- Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
- Player props: 4-2 (+2.20 units)
The ACC Tournament is heating up as NC State takes on Louisville in a highly anticipated matchup. Both teams have had solid seasons and are looking to make a statement in the tournament. As fans gear up for this exciting game, many are also looking to place bets on the outcome. In this betting guide, we will break down the odds, picks, predictions, and player props for the NC State vs Louisville matchup.
Odds:
According to leading sportsbooks, NC State is currently listed as a slight favorite over Louisville. The Wolfpack are favored by 2.5 points, with the over/under set at 140 points. The moneyline odds for NC State are -140, while Louisville is sitting at +120. These odds indicate that the game is expected to be close, with NC State having a slight edge.
Picks:
When it comes to making picks for this game, it’s important to consider both teams’ recent performances and head-to-head matchups. NC State has been playing well down the stretch, with key wins over top-ranked teams. On the other hand, Louisville has struggled at times but has shown flashes of brilliance. In this matchup, I would lean towards NC State covering the spread and winning the game outright.
Predictions:
In terms of predictions, I believe that this game will be a high-scoring affair. Both teams have potent offenses and like to push the pace. I expect a back-and-forth battle with plenty of three-pointers and fast breaks. Ultimately, I predict that NC State will come out on top in a close game, with a final score of 75-70.
Player Props:
For those looking to bet on individual player performances, there are several player props to consider for this matchup. Players to watch include NC State’s leading scorer, Jericole Hellems, who is averaging 13 points per game. Look for Hellems to have a big game and potentially go over his points total prop. On the Louisville side, keep an eye on guard Carlik Jones, who leads the team in scoring and assists. Jones could also exceed his points and assists prop bets.
In conclusion, the NC State vs Louisville matchup in the ACC Tournament is shaping up to be a thrilling game with plenty of betting opportunities. With close odds, intriguing player props, and exciting predictions, fans and bettors alike are in for an action-packed showdown. As always, remember to gamble responsibly and enjoy the game!
