Draft Day is upon us and there is no shortage of last-minute NFL Draft rumors to mix-up what everyone is projecting will happen in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft tonight. While some of these rumors may be legitimate feelings, some are simply being put out there by the teams to deceive the rest of the league. I have my own opinions on which are real/fake, but I think it’s best we leave it to the sportsbooks to figure out which is which. After all, they’re the only source who is forced to put their money where their mouth is, and will lose money if they’re wrong.
After a ton of movement in the NFL Draft odds between Tuesday (two days ago) and now, I have put together one final first-round NFL mock ahead of Tennessee submitting the first pick tonight. As usual, these are not my opinions. This mock was pieced together using solely the sportsbook’s NFL Draft betting markets. So, here’s what they think will happen tonight:
Final 2025 NFL Mock Draft
The first four picks in my latest NFL mock draft remain the same as my 2.0 version from two days ago. However, there are some notable differences after that. Here are some of the players who saw a big rise/fall in where they are being selected versus my last mock:
- Ashton Jeanty: he remained the fifth-overall pick but it went from the Raiders to now the Jaguars drafting him
- Kelvin Banks Jr: moved up from the 13th pick to the sixth
- Mason Graham: tumbled from the sixth-overall pick to 11th
- Jahdae Barron: risen from the 23rd pick to the 13th
- Will Johnson: fell from the 13th pick to the 23rd
- Walter Nolen: went from the 22nd pick to the 15th
- Kenneth Grant: fell from the 15th pick to the 22nd
- Jihaad Campbell: was not being taken in the first-round to now the 19th pick
- James Pearce Jr: was not selected in the first-round to now the 28th pick
- Donovan Ezeiruaku: fell from the 28th pick to outside of the first round
- Nick Emmanwori: fell from the 30th pick to outside of the first round
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Ashton Jeanty a Coveted Prospect
When draft position over/unders opened, Ashton Jeanty’s line was set at 9.5 with the under heavily favored. Today, his over/under is set at 6.5 with the under getting -550 odds.
We have also seen a number of different teams favored to draft the Boise State running back since those odds opened. The Raiders were the original favorites with the sixth-overall pick, but the odds shifted to start favoring the Jaguars a couple days ago, and now (not reflected in the mock above) as I am typing this out, I see the Bears have become the odds-on favorites to draft Jeanty. This would likely be the Bears moving up to five to take Jeanty, moving the Jags back to 10th.
On top of the odds movement, we have also heard rumors of the Jets making Breece Hall available in a potential bid to come up to draft Jeanty, the Broncos have floated the idea of them making an aggressive move up the board, and there was even a minute where Jeanty to the Patriots made sense after hearing new head coach Mike Vrabel discuss wanting some fresh legs in the backfield.
Mason Graham Falling Out of Top 10
No more than four days ago, Mason Graham was a very heavy favorite to be drafted fifth-overall by the Jaguars. It made a lot of sense, as Jacksonville is quite weak in the middle of their D-line. However, once the Jaguars expressed interest in Jeanty, the odds started changing dramatically.
Graham’s draft position over/under went from 5.5 with the under being a big favorite, to the over becoming a heavy favorite two days ago. His over/under now sits at 7.5 with the over still heavily favored. While the defensive lineman still has very short odds to be a top ten pick, it’s not a betting market you can put a lot of faith in, as you cannot bet both sides. Sportsbooks only allow you to bet the “Yes” option in this market, allowing them to shorten the odds of all players beyond their true probability.
Odds to Be a Top 10 Pick
Graham is still given -475 odds to be selected in the first ten picks tonight, which implies an 82.6% chance. As you saw in my mock above, I am not putting much stock into the odds to be a top ten pick in the NFL Draft, and have Graham falling out. There are too many other (more credible) betting markets that I cared to satisfy instead.
If Graham does fall out of the top ten, I’m sure the 49ers and new DC Robert Saleh would be thrilled at the opportunity to add him to their roster.
Jahdae Barron Now Favored to Be 2nd Corner Taken
As recently as two days ago, Will Johnson was the firm favorite to be the second corner taken behind Travis Hunter. Johnson’s draft position over/under could be found as low as 11.5 with the over slightly favored. Prior to those draft position over/unders opening, I had mocked him as high as ninth to the Saints.
However, the odds to be the second corner taken have shifted in a big way today, as Jahdae Barron is now as short as -180 at FanDuel. Most sportsbooks have also moved his over/under to 18.5 with the under heavily favored. As a result, he has landed at 13th to the Miami Dolphins in my latest mock above.
In the latest NFL mock draft, two standout players have seen their stock rise significantly. Mason Graham, a talented defensive end from Ohio State, and Will Johnson, a dynamic wide receiver from Alabama, have both made a strong impression on scouts and analysts leading up to the draft.
Graham, known for his speed off the edge and ability to disrupt opposing quarterbacks, has been projected as a first-round pick in many mock drafts. His impressive performance at the NFL Combine solidified his status as one of the top defensive prospects in this year’s draft class. Teams in need of a pass rusher will surely be keeping a close eye on Graham as draft day approaches.
Johnson, on the other hand, has been turning heads with his exceptional route-running and sure hands. The Alabama standout has shown the ability to make big plays in crucial moments, making him an attractive option for teams looking to add a dynamic playmaker to their receiving corps. With his combination of speed and agility, Johnson has the potential to be a game-changer at the next level.
Meanwhile, linebacker Jeanty has been making waves with his strong performance in pre-draft workouts. The hard-hitting defender has impressed scouts with his instincts and ability to read plays quickly. Jeanty’s versatility and leadership on the field have caught the attention of several teams, leading to speculation that he could be a sleeper pick in the later rounds of the draft.
As the draft draws closer, all eyes will be on these rising stars as they look to make their mark in the NFL. With their impressive skill sets and potential for greatness, Mason Graham, Will Johnson, and Jeanty are sure to be names to watch on draft day and beyond.