We are just nine days away from the 2025 NFL Draft, and the mock drafts are flying around everywhere. Instead of giving you pure (clickbait-y) opinion, which is what most mocks are, I put together an NFL mock draft based on the NFL Draft betting markets available at sportsbooks. I find this extremely valuable, as it’s the one person putting their money where their mouth is – if you disagree with anything, you can bet against it!
Two of the more interesting selections in this NFL mock came from the New York Giants and Chicago Bears, who I projected will trade back into the first round to satisfy some of the players sportsbooks are saying will go in the second half of the first round. You can see the full NFL mock draft in the image below, and also click through the image to go deeper into the odds that went into the mock.
2025 First-Round NFL Mock
The asterisks in the mock draft above denote a trade. The Giants acquiring the 18th pick would likely take the 34th, 65th, and either the 99th or 105th. The Chargers moving up from 22 to 19 would likely see them give up the 86th or a 3rd/4th-round pick next year. The Bears acquiring the 26th pick would likely require parting with the 39th and either the 72nd or a 3rd-round pick next year.
The topics I am focused on today are the Bears and Giants, who I am predicting will both trade back up to acquire a second pick in the first round. You can click through the image above to see explanations for all 32 picks as well as my method for constructing the mock draft.
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Ben Johnson comes from a very successful Lions offense that featured a two-headed attack in the backfield, which is what I am projecting he obtains in his first year in Chicago as well. Shedeur Sanders is one of the most polarizing players in the 2025 NFL Draft, and there are now rumors that he may slip out of the first round. However, sportsbooks still favor him to be selected on April 24, and I have the Giants as the team who makes the pick.
Bears Give Ben Johnson Explosive RB Tandem
It took Ben Johnson a full season to get his offense configured the way he wanted in Detroit, but when he did, they were consistently one of the league’s best. This is what Chicago should be expecting in Johnson’s tenure as head coach. Let me dive into why I have predicted the Bears will move back into the first round to draft Omarion Hampton.
Detroit only rushed for 150+ yards in four of 17 games in 2022, which was his first season as the Lions’ offensive coordinator, but their backfield looked very different from what we know it to be today. Detroit had Jamaal Williams carrying the load with D’Andre Swift seeing 147 touches as well. Johnson ran the ball on 44% of their snaps (14th), which led to 32.9% of their yards from scrimmage coming on the ground (18th). They also had the 13th-most rushing attempts result in negative yards (excluding kneeldowns) that season. They were an average rushing offense, further evident by their 2,179 rushing yards (11th) and 4.54 yards per rush attempt (15th).
The next season, they signed David Montgomery and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round. Without calling a higher percentage of rush plays, as they remained at 44% of their snaps being rushing attempts, Detroit improved their rushign total to 2,311 (5th) and yards per attempt to 4.62 (5th). In Year 2 with that RB tandem (2024), Ben Johnson called rushes on 47.8% of their snaps (7th), which resulted in 2,488 rushing yards (6th) and 4.66 yards per carry (9th).
The stat that matters most in this conversation is wins. When Ben Johnson’s offense rushes for 150+ yards, his team is 16-1! That’s the best winning percentage of any team who has rushed for 150+ yards in at least nine games over the last three seasons. So, it’s safe to say things are about to change in Chicago this season.
Here’s a quick look at how Ben Johnson’s offenses compared to the Bears’ offense last season in rookie Caleb Williams’ rookie year:
Chicago struggled mightily when trying to run the ball last year, and Ben Johnson has already started making moves to correct that. Here are a few of Chicago’s notable offseason additions:
- Drew Dalman (Center)
- Joe Thuney (Guard)
- Jonah Jackson (Guard)
Dalman took over Atlanta’s starting center spot in his second season, but was limited to just nine games last season due to injury. In his four seasons as a pro, Dalman has always been seen as one of the league’s best centers. The same can be said about Joe Thuney, who was asked to play out of position last year in Kansas City due to injuries, and he held up very well.
Those three will make up the new interior of Chicago’s offensive line, while Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones remain at the tackle spots. The last thing Johnson needs to get this Bears offense going is an improved RB room. Here’s a look at the running backs currently on their roster with their career yards per carry average:
What’s notable about D’Andre Swift is that his career low in rushing attempts per game, rushing yards per game, and touches all came in 2022, which was his lone year in a Ben Johnson offense. The then-Lions OC felt he couldn’t trust Swift that season, and I don’t feel he is going to bet his new head coaching gig on Swift either.
(Also, don’t jump out of your seat at the Travis Homer YPC stat. He has 89 career rushing attempts in six seasons.)
What really stands out to me in viewing their RB room is the lack of anyone Johnson can really lean on. They need their version of David Montgomery – a bruising back who gets the tough yards and can handle 20+ carries per game. Omarion Hampton solves that issue perfectly. The UNC product is being compared to a Rhamondre Stevenson (worst case) or Jonathan Taylor (best case). He averaged 5.9 yards per carry with the Tar Heels last season, tallying the third-most rushing yards in the FBS.
Adding Hampton in the draft would allow for Swift to settle into Chicago’s Jahmyr Gibbs, utilizing his speed and pass-catching capabilities. Of course, drafting Ashton Jeanty would be seen as a home run as well, but the NFL Draft odds say he’ll be off the board by the time the Bears pick at 10. Hampton’s draft position over/under has him as a big reach at 10, but the odds say he is going to hear his name called before the first round wraps up. I like it to be Chicago calling his name, as they have pretty short odds to select a running back with their first pick too.
Giants Add Franchise QB
While we have heard some recent rumors that suggest Shedeur Sanders may not be viewed as a first-round talent by many NFL teams, you shouldn’t always believe what you hear this close to the NFL Draft. Some teams are playing games with the rumors they float. I think it’s notable that sportsbooks have pulled the odds on the position of the player the Giants take with their first pick, signaling they aren’t willing to let people bet on it due to a lack of information right now.
Many of the very early mocks were favoring Shedeur Sanders to the Giants with the third pick, but the odds say he is not going to hear his name called that early. However, that doesn’t mean the Giants won’t be the team drafting him. There are a number of teams in the middle of the first round, or even early 20s, who would likely opt to trade back if the right offer were presented. I believe the Giants have to get aggressive in this draft.
This is a staff who has become famous for all the wrong reasons. Joe Schoen’s son went viral for telling his father to just do what’s needed to get Jayden Daniels, who went on to win NFL OROY in 2024 and led the Commanders to the NFC Championship game. Yes, Malik Nabers is an incredibly talented wide receiver, but you need a QB to deliver him the ball.
On top of that, this is a Giants staff who decided to let Saquon Barkley walk in free agency, getting nothing in return for him, only to watch him become the ninth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season with Philadelphia, and win the Super Bowl in his first season away from New York.
Brian Daboll has been the head coach of the Giants since 2022, with the upcoming season being his fourth at the helm in New York. In his previous three seasons, the Giants have averaged just 181.8 passing yards per game, which is third-worst in the league over that span. They also only have 47 passing touchdowns in three seasons, which is only one more than the last-ranked Steelers in this category. Daboll did have success in his first season with the team, as they won nine games and then upset the Vikings in the playoffs. However, they have won a combined nine games over the past two seasons.
A big part of those struggles can certainly be pointed at the quarterbacks Daboll has been working with. Here’s a look at the QBs who have started games over Daboll’s tenure in New York:
You can also throw in Tim Boyle, who didn’t start any games, but was forced under center last season due to injury.
But if you dig a little deeper into Daboll’s past, these numbers aren’t really the outlier. Here’s how his offenses have ranked in key categories in his time as an OC or HC:
As you can see, the outliers appear to be the two years where Josh Allen broke out into the superstar QB he is today. His offenses have ranked 23rd or worse in passing yards during nine of his 11 seasons as an OC/HC, and has been the worst or second-worst in four of 11.
So, I’m not sure how much room for error either Schoen or Daboll have with the Giants moving forward. I think they need to turn things around fast or else someone else will be brought in to accomplish that task. With that type of urgency, I don’t believe these men are willing to (1) bet their jobs on either a washed up Russell Wilson or Jameis “pick-six” Winston, or (2) risk passing on a QB again, only to watch him go elsewhere and shine.
The odds say New York won’t need to use their third-overall pick on Sanders, but he is projected to come off the board before they pick again at 34. Drafting Sanders buys both Schoen and Daboll a little more time, as long as Sanders is progressing. It also gives Daboll the opportunity to prove he can get the most out of a QB, and groom a young, raw talent into a franchise QB. Sanders will also do a much better job keeping Nabers happy than Wilson will, which is going to be crucial for the Giants this season.
The NFL Draft is always an exciting time for football fans, as teams look to bolster their rosters with top college talent. In a recent mock draft, the Chicago Bears made a surprising move by selecting a running back in the first round.
With the 20th overall pick, the Bears selected Najee Harris out of Alabama. Harris is widely regarded as one of the top running backs in this year’s draft class, and his combination of size, speed, and power make him a dynamic playmaker on offense.
The Bears’ decision to draft Harris may come as a surprise to some, as they already have David Montgomery on their roster. However, adding a talent like Harris could give Chicago’s offense a much-needed boost and provide them with a versatile weapon in the backfield.
Meanwhile, the New York Giants made a bold move by trading up in the draft to select a quarterback. With the 11th overall pick, the Giants selected Trey Lance out of North Dakota State. Lance is considered one of the top quarterback prospects in this year’s draft, and his strong arm and mobility make him an intriguing option for New York.
The Giants’ decision to trade up for Lance shows their commitment to finding a long-term solution at the quarterback position. With Daniel Jones entering his third season in the league, the addition of Lance could provide some healthy competition and potentially push Jones to elevate his game.
Overall, the Bears selecting a running back in the first round and the Giants trading up for a quarterback are just two of the many intriguing storylines that could unfold during this year’s NFL Draft. As teams continue to evaluate their needs and assess the talent available, fans can expect plenty of surprises and excitement when the draft kicks off.
