Reasons Why Duke is Unlikely to Win March Madness as Final Four Approaches

• The Duke Blue Devils enter the Final Four as massive +100 favorites to win March Madness
• Duke has won three of their four tournament games by 20+ points
• Find all the updated March Madness National Championship odds and our value bets

A chalky March Madness tournament has left all four No.1 seeds headed to the Final Four for just the second time in the history of the men’s basketball tournament. For the first time since 2008, each of the top-seeded squads, Duke, Florida, Houston, and Auburn, won their region and will battle it out for college basketball immortality.

Here’s why Duke isn’t a good bet to win March Madness heading into the Final Four.

March Madness National Championship Odds

The Duke Blue Devils are heavy favorites to cut down the nets as March Madness champions at +100 in the latest National Championship odds. Florida is next at +300, followed by Houston +425 and Auburn +525.

Duke’s odds have moved from +325 to +100 since Selection Sunday, with Florida’s moving from +362 to +300. Additionally, Houston’s odds have fallen from +675 at opening to +425. Meanwhile, Auburn’s odds have fallen from +450 to +525 in the wake of Johni Broome’s injury.

Odds as of April 2nd, at Caesars Sportsbook. Find a Caesars promo code for your college basketball betting.

Blue Devils Face Tough Road to National Championship

While Duke boasts the most talented college basketball team in the country, there are weaknesses these other Final Four teams can exploit. After all, Arizona played the Blue Devils close, and Florida, Houston and Auburn boast far more talent than the Wildcats.

First, Jon Scheyer’s squad will have to get past the Houston Cougars, whose dominant defense is the best unit the country. Per KenPom, Kelvin Sampson’s squad leads the nation in defensive efficiency, allowing just 87.4 points per 100 possessions.

As evidenced by their performance against Tennessee in the Elite Eight, LJ Cryer and company attack opposing guards with ferocity. The Cougars force the opposition into contest shots, or turnovers time and time against. Houston held a Volunteers offense ranked in the top-20 in offensive efficiency all season to just 15 first-half points.

The Cougars swarm offensive threats, and have the capability to bully Duke into a grit-and-grind showdown. At the other end, the Cougars have five players who can shoot the lights out, shooting 39.7% from three as a team. Plus, five players score in double figures.

Sampson’s squad can force Duke to play at their pace, attack the Blue Devils’ stars defensively, and hoover offensive rebounds to create extra possessions. In essence, Houston is the ultimate underdog, and has a great chance to knock off Duke on Saturday night.

Similarly, the Florida Gators’ second-ranked offense will give the Blue Devils problems should each team advance to the final. NBA scouts have likened Gators star Walter Clayton Jr. to Stephon Curry for good reason.

The Florida point guard can score from all three levels, and is a deadeye shooter. Clayton’s 30-point bonanza against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight guided the Gators to a comeback victory, and cemented his status as a lottery pick in the NBA draft. Moreover, Clayton is one of the most clutch players in all of college basketball, and as his performance against the Red Raiders showed, is fully capable of turning a game on its head late.

March Madness National Championship Value Pick

Finally, the top-seeded Auburn Tigers lurk at +525 to win it all at the bottom end of the latest March Madness National Championship odds. Auburn has the size, skill and defensive tenacity to punish even the slightest mistakes by the opposition. Crucially, the Tigers rarely turn the ball over, and make the absolute most of every trip down the floor.

Bruce Pearl’s squad is battle-tested after early encounters with Creighton and Michigan. Plus, the Tigers survived a war with a hard-nosed Michigan State team in the Elite Eight. An injury to March Madness Most Outstanding Player contender Johni Broome clouds the Tigers National Championship odds.

However, the latest reports are that Broome merely tweaked his elbow. After a few days of rest this upcoming week, the John Wooden award candidate should be full steam ahead.

Additionally, guards Chad Baker-Mazara and Tahaad Pettiford give this Auburn team an extra gear. Baker-Mazara is one of Auburn’s core upperclassmen who have played together for multiple seasons. In fact, Pearl uses a rotation on eight seniors or fifth-year players, who all average at least nine minutes per game. The Tigers can fall back on that experience in the Final Four and come out on top.

March Madness Value Pick: Auburn +525

As the Final Four of March Madness approaches, many basketball fans are eagerly anticipating which team will come out on top. Duke, a perennial powerhouse in college basketball, is often considered a top contender for the championship. However, there are several reasons why Duke may not be able to clinch the title this year.

One of the main reasons why Duke is unlikely to win March Madness is their inconsistent performance throughout the season. While they have shown flashes of brilliance at times, they have also struggled with consistency and have suffered some surprising losses. In order to win the championship, a team needs to be firing on all cylinders and playing at their best consistently, something that Duke has struggled to do this season.

Another factor that could hinder Duke’s chances of winning March Madness is their lack of depth. While they have some incredibly talented players, including potential number one overall pick Zion Williamson, they have relied heavily on their starters throughout the season. This lack of depth could become a problem as the tournament progresses and fatigue sets in, especially if they face teams with deeper benches.

Additionally, Duke’s struggles from the three-point line could also be a cause for concern. In today’s game, three-point shooting is crucial for success, and Duke has not been a strong shooting team from beyond the arc this season. If they continue to struggle with their outside shooting, it could make it difficult for them to keep up with teams that are able to knock down threes consistently.

Lastly, Duke’s youth and inexperience could also work against them in the tournament. While they have some incredibly talented freshmen, including Williamson and RJ Barrett, they also have a relatively young team overall. In the high-pressure environment of March Madness, experience can be a valuable asset, and Duke’s lack of it could potentially hurt them in crucial moments.

While Duke certainly has the talent and potential to win March Madness, there are several factors working against them that could make it difficult for them to come out on top. As the Final Four approaches, it will be interesting to see if Duke is able to overcome these obstacles and make a deep run in the tournament.