2024 NFL Win Totals and Over/Under Predictions: What You Need to Know

2024 NFL Win Totals and Over/Under Predictions: What You Need to Know
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers on the practice field

Florham Park, NJ — July 27, 2024 — Quarterback, Aaron Rodgers during the New York Jets training camp this morning.

  • The 2024 NFL season starts in just five days and time is running out to make preseason win-total bets
  • The New York Jets have seen their win total rise to double-digits ahead of Week 1
  • Below, see the updated 2024 NFL win totals for all 32 teams plus expert over/under picks

Less than a week away from the start of the 2024 NFL season, bettors have had ample time to wager on the the NFL win totals for all 32 teams, which means sportsbooks have also had ample time to adjust the lines.

Roughly half of the NFL has seen its win total move a full game either up or down since odds first opened. The table below lists the latest NFL win totals for all 32 teams along with their opening win total. Under the table, find my two favorite win-total bets on the board based on the updated odds.

Updated NFL Win Totals 2024

Team Opening Win Total Current Win Total Over Odds Under Odds
Arizona Cardinals 6.5 6.5 -150 +125
Atlanta Falcons 10.5 9.5 -150 +125
Baltimore Ravens 11.5 10.5 -135 +110
Buffalo Bills 10.5 9.5 -145 +120
Carolina Panthers 4.5 5.5 -115 +102
Chicago Bears 8.5 9.5 +120 -150
Cincinnati Bengals 10.5 10.5 -125 -100
Cleveland Browns 8.5 8.5 -135 +115
Dallas Cowboys 10.5 9.5 -145 +120
Denver Broncos 5.5 5.5 -140 +120
Detroit Lions 9.5 10.5 -132 +108
Green Bay Packers 10.5 9.5 -135 +115
Houston Texans 9.5 9.5 -140 +120
Indianapolis Colts 8.5 8.5 +110 -130
Jacksonville Jaguars 8.5 8.5 -120 -100
Kansas City Chiefs 11.5 11.5 -115 -105
Las Vegas Raiders 6.5 6.5 -130 +110
Los Angeles Chargers 8.5 8.5 -155 +130
Los Angeles Rams 8.5 8.5 -160 +135
Miami Dolphins 10.5 9.5 -135 +115
Minnesota Vikings 6.5 6.5 -140 +120
New England Patriots 4.5 4.5 -135 +110
New Orleans Saints 7.5 7.5 -120 -100
New York Giants 6.5 6.5 +115 -135
New York Jets 9.5 10.5 +115 -145
Philadelphia Eagles 10.5 10.5 -130 +110
Pittsburgh Steelers 7.5 8.5 +125 -155
San Francisco 49ers 11.5 11.5 +125 -145
Seattle Seahawks 7.5 7.5 -150 +130
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5 7.5 -135 +115
Tennessee Titans 5.5 6.5 +110 -135
Washington Commanders 7.5 6.5 -130 +110

While 14 teams have moved up or down a game in the 2024 NFL win totals, it’s noteworthy that zero teams have moved more than one game in either direction.

Win totals and odds as of Aug. 31 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Download the top football betting apps to make your win-total bets,

Win Total Pick #1: New York Jets Under 10.5

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets opened with a win total of 9.5 but are now sitting at 10.5 ahead of Week 1, albeit with the under favored at -145. I get the narrative: you’re adding a three-time NFL MVP onto a team that’s already pretty stacked defensively. Rodgers is the one missing piece that will turn the amorphous green blob into a finished puzzle, right?

I’m not buying it. Aaron Rodgers is 40 and hasn’t played a snap in a year. On top of that, his 2022 season was one of the worst of his career. He failed to reach 4,000 yards in a full season for the first time since 2015, and his 12 interceptions were the most he’s thrown since his first year as a starter back in 2008 (13). Both his passer rating (91.1) and QBR (41.3) were his lowest ever. 

Sure, Green Bay was pretty diminished at the skill positions in 2022, but it’s not like the Jets are stacked. Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams on the outside with Breece Hall at running back and Tyler Conklin at tight end amounts to a supremely average group.

I was leaning under on the Jets when it was at 9.5 and love it at 10.5. It doesn’t hurt that SBD’s computer model has them under as well in its 2024 NFL record predictions.

Win Total Pick #2: Dallas Cowboys Over 9.5

My second pick is the Dallas Cowboys – who opened with a win total of 10.5 – to go over their reduced total of 9.5, again at -145 odds.

Forget the headlines about no team repeating as NFC East champs since 2004. The Cowboys have been arguably the most-consistent regular-season team over the last three seasons, winning 12 games in 2021, 2022, and 2023.

The Cowboys splashed in free agency by signing linebacker Eric Kendricks on a favorable deal. Replacing eight-time Pro Bowl LT Tyron Smith (Jets) will of course be a challenge, but the 33-year-old’s best days are behind him.

I don’t expect a ton from the Commanders (7-10 record projection) or Giants (7-10 record projection) and, overall, Dallas is T9 in terms of 2024 NFL strength of schedule, despite finishing first in the NFC East last year.

Remember, Dallas doesn’t need to win 12 games again to hit this over. They could regress two full games from last season and still cash the over at 9.5.

  • FANATICS SPORTSBOOK

    $5M JERSEY DROP + $1,000 IN BONUS BETS

  • DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

    BET $5 & GET $250 + 1 MONTH OF NFL+ PREMIUM

  • FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

    BET $5 & GET $200 + 3 WEEKS OF NFL SUNDAY TICKET

  • BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

    GET UP TO $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS!

  • BET365 SPORTSBOOK

    BET $5 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS!

  • ESPN BET SPORTSBOOK

    USE CODE “DIME” & GET A $1,000 BET RESET!

  • CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

    GET UP TO $1,000 BACK – ON CAESARS!

  • Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, MD, MI, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, WY); (800) 327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org (MA); (877) 8-HOPENY (NY); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); (888) 789-7777 (CT); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN); mdgamblinghelp.org (MD); morethanagame.nc.gov (NC); 1800gambler.net (WV)

Author Image

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
Politics
Tennis
MMA
Sportsbooks
Gambling
Managing Editor

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
Politics
Tennis
MMA
Sportsbooks
Gambling

With the 2023 NFL season in the rearview mirror, it’s never too early to start looking ahead to the 2024 season. One of the most popular forms of betting on the NFL is predicting win totals for each team and whether they will go over or under that number. Here’s what you need to know about the 2024 NFL win totals and over/under predictions.

First and foremost, it’s important to understand how win totals are determined. Oddsmakers take into account a variety of factors when setting win totals for each team, including their performance in the previous season, offseason acquisitions and departures, strength of schedule, and overall team talent. These factors all play a role in determining a team’s projected win total for the upcoming season.

When looking at the 2024 NFL win totals, it’s important to consider each team’s strengths and weaknesses. Some teams may have a high-powered offense but a weak defense, while others may have a stout defense but struggle to score points. Understanding each team’s strengths and weaknesses can help you make more informed decisions when betting on win totals.

In addition to team-specific factors, it’s also important to consider the overall landscape of the NFL. Some divisions may be more competitive than others, which can impact a team’s chances of hitting their projected win total. For example, a team in a tough division with multiple playoff contenders may have a lower win total than a team in a weaker division with fewer playoff threats.

When it comes to making over/under predictions on NFL win totals, there are a few key strategies to keep in mind. One strategy is to look for value in the betting lines. If you believe a team is being undervalued by oddsmakers, it may be worth taking the over on their win total. Conversely, if you think a team is overvalued, taking the under may be the smarter bet.

Another strategy is to consider historical trends and patterns. Some teams consistently outperform their projected win totals, while others consistently fall short. By analyzing past performance and trends, you can gain valuable insights into which teams are likely to exceed or fall short of their win totals in the upcoming season.

Ultimately, predicting NFL win totals and making over/under bets requires a combination of research, analysis, and a bit of luck. By understanding the factors that go into setting win totals, considering each team’s strengths and weaknesses, and employing sound betting strategies, you can increase your chances of making successful predictions for the 2024 NFL season. So start studying the odds and get ready to place your bets on the upcoming NFL season!