2024 NFL Award Predictions: NFL MVP, OROY, and More Picks

Aug 8, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers (9) makes a catch during warm ups before the game against the Detroit Lions at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

• A few NFL awards have some very clear favorites entering Week 1 of the 2024-25 NFL season
• Are the NFL award favorites worth betting at their current price or is there better value with other players?
• See who SBD’s experts are predicting will win NFL MVP, DPOY, OROY, DROY, COY, and CPOY below

As we approach kickoff of the 2024-25 NFL season, I have rounded up a couple other NFL experts from SBD and asked for everyone’s picks and predictions for each NFL award. Betting on NFL awards is one of the most popular futures bets, and can be quite profitable if you manage to pick the right player before the odds start changing dramatically during the season. So, here are the players Zach Reger, Brady Trettenero, and I like to take home each award, along with our analysis.

You can jump to one specific player award with the links below or scroll through them all.

NFL MVP | NFL DPOY | NFL OROY | NFL DROY | NFL COY | NFL CPOY

2024-25 NFL MVP Predictions

There are only three players who have won the NFL MVP over the last six years: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Aaron Rodgers. Yet not a single one of our experts are siding with one of those three. In my case, you can blame that on Mahomes’ very short odds to win NFL MVP right now.

• Matt McEwan: Anthony Richardson (+3500)

I’m starting my NFL award picks off with a bang, taking Anthony Richardson to win MVP at +3500 odds. But it makes sense if you have seen my Super Bowl 59 predictions. In his limited time last season, Richardson was electric. Give him another offseason to continue learning Shane Steichen’s system, and I think he’s capable of posting bigger numbers than Jalen Hurts did under Steichen.

Add in a defense that I think takes a good leap forward this year, plus an overhyped Texans team, and I think Indianapolis can win the required games for Richardson to be considered for MVP.

• Zach Reger: Jalen Hurts (+1400)

The Eagles’ offense is loaded heading into the season with Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Jahan Dotson, so Jalen Hurts will have plenty of opportunities to put up big games. Kellen Moore is also an exciting upgrade at offensive coordinator. Philadelphia plays in five primetime games, so if he plays well in those games, his odds will shorten. At +1400, Hurts is a great value to win NFL MVP.

• Brady Trettenero: CJ Stroud (+800)

It’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes, determined to make history and win a third straight Super Bowl. However, this is a regular season award, and I love the value on Houston Texans’ QB C.J. Stroud.

Stroud had a stellar debut in 2023, throwing for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns with only five interceptions. His supporting cast has only improved with the Texans landing elite WR Stefon Diggs to pair with emerging talents like Nico Collins and Tank Dell.

There’s potential for Stroud to put up monster numbers this season on a rising AFC contender. If he maintains a similar pace as his rookie campaign, Stroud could be poised for over 6,000 passing yards and 40+ TDs in a full 17-game season.

2024-25 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Predictions

Here is some analysis from our experts on their respective NFL DPOY picks:

• Matt McEwan: Quinnen Williams (+8000)

In trying to find an NFL DPOY, I look for two things: (1) a player from one of the league’s best defenses, and (2) a player who gets after the quarterback. They don’t need to lead the league in sacks, but should put up a healthy number. Once again, I want to clarify that I do think TJ Watt has a great chance to win this award (again), but his NFL DPOY odds are just too short to bet right now.

Though Quinnen Williams only racked up 5.5 sacks last year, he posted 12 in 2022. Last year’s low number can be attributed to the Jets seeing the fourth-fewest passes attempted against them. Part of that was because of how strong their pass defense was, but part was because their offense was atrocious and they often found themselves playing from behind – meaning teams would run more (saw the third-most rushing attempts against). If Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy this season, I think we’ll see the Jets’ opponents forced to pass much more, which will let Williams rack up enough sacks to put himself in the spotlight of what I believe will be the league’s top defense.

• Zach Reger: Aidan Hutchinson (+1100)

Aidan Hutchinson has improved in each season, and he now enters Year 3. He recorded a career-high 11.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss in 2023, and the Lions defense should be much improved this season, which will only help those numbers.

• Brady Trettenero: Kayvon Thibodeaux (+7500)

I’m going a bit off the board with my pick for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. I think New York Giants’ linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux is being undervalued by the betting markets and offers major upside at +7500 odds.

Thibodeaux had a breakout campaign in 2023, racking up 11.5 sacks, 50 tackles, three forced fumbles (sixth-most in the NFL), and four passes defended in 17 games. However, I believe he still has another gear to get to.

As the fifth overall pick in the 2022 draft out of Oregon, Thibodeaux has the raw ability and upside to develop into a truly dominant pass rusher. I think we see that in 2024-25 under new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. Under Bowen last season, the Titans blitzed on just 20.4% of plays last season. Thibodeaux’s pass rush ability will be as important as ever in 2024-25.

2024-25 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Predictions

You’ll notice a common theme in each analysis below: Caleb Williams will likely win this award, but his odds being near even-money results in no value to be had in betting Williams right now.

• Matt McEwan: Malik Nabers (+1500)

If the question is just who I think will win the award, the answer I will give is Caleb Williams. However, I do not see value in him at +135 odds to win NFL OROY. (We have already seen how quickly someone’s season can come to an end with JJ McCarthy.) The best bet to win NFL OROY right now, in my opinion, is Malik Nabers. I thought Nabers might get taken as the first wide receiver off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft. That’s how highly I view this rookie.

His odds are a little longer because he has Daniel Jones throwing him the football, but I’m confident Brian Daboll will scheme to get Nabers the ball early and often, and also feel Jones will heavily lean on (by far) his best receiving option. I think he’ll make huge plays for the Giants week after week and finish as the runner-up to Williams.

• Zach Reger: Jayden Daniels (+600)

The Offensive Rookie of the Year award normally goes to a quarterback, and it seems to be Caleb Williams’ award to lose. Despite that, I will take a stab at Jayden Daniels to win the award at +600 odds instead of the heavy favorite, Williams, Daniels is a talented player both through the air and on the ground and just won a Heisman at LSU last year.

• Brady Trettenero: Bo Nix (+1000)

Caleb Williams is the well-deserved favorite in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, but I’m bo-lieving in the Denver Broncos’ new starting quarterback. Broncos head coach Sean Payton officially named the 24-year-old Nix as the team’s starting QB for Week 1.

While it was only preseason, Nix displayed poise, accuracy, and command of the offense, completing 80% of his passes. Nix’s ability to execute the quick game, take deep shots, and avoid negative plays should mesh well with Payton’s offensive philosophy. His mobility is an added bonus.

Nix will have a hard time matching the rushing yards and highlight-reel plays of someone like Williams, but I think his age and experience will pay major dividends. At 24 years of age, Nix is older and more experienced than the other rookie QBs, having 61 college starts at Auburn and Oregon. I’m predicting solid, consistent play and taking care of the football week in and week out to help Nix earn the OROY honors.

2024-25 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Predictions

This is the only award where two of us agree on the best bet right now, as Zach and I agree on Jared Verse.

• Matt McEwan: Jared Verse (+900)

Unlike NFL DPOY, the player who wins the NFL DROY does not need to be on one of the league’s best defenses, nor do they need to be a pass-rusher. (We have seen three corners win the award in the last decade.) The main things I am looking for in selecting an NFL DROY are: (1) a significant role on the defense right away, and (2) a roster around him that will help facilitate an early impact.

I don’t foresee Jared Verse coming off the field much for the Rams, as they don’t have great edge rushers behind him. I also like the fact that he finds himself on a team that I believe will score lots of points, and therefore force their opponents into passing more than they want. Though the Rams are handing their defense over to Chris Shula, who has never called a defense before, it sounds like he’ll run many of the same aggressive/attacking schemes and structures as the Rams have over the past few seasons.

• Zach Reger: Jared Verse (+900)

The Rams’ defensive line is depleted with Aaron Donald leaving, so first-round pick Jared Verse will have playing time almost immediately. Verse is explosive and powerful coming off the edge and has a great chance to put up strong numbers as a rookie.

• Brady Trettenero: Byron Murphy (+1000)

I’m taking another player around +1000 in the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds who I think is being slept on a bit. Seahawks DT Byron Murphy, the 16th overall pick out of Texas, was arguably the best interior defensive lineman in the draft. He earned second-team AP All-American honors and Big 12 Defensive Lineman of the Year in 2023.

I’m mind-blown by this guy’s athleticism and weight room numbers, including a 455-pound front squat and 375-pound power clean. This combination of lower-body twitch, leverage, and power is rare to see. Murphy’s explosive first step allows him to shoot gaps and disrupt plays in the backfield.

A key reason for this pick, however, is the scheme fit. Murphy should become an impact starter who can play shaded nose or 3-technique in the Seahawks’ defense, similar to Grady Jarrett. Coach Mike Macdonald sees him in a role akin to Justin Madubuike, who had 13 sacks under Macdonald in 2023. I think Murphy’s elite physical tools and potential to severely bolster Seattle’s run defense make him a great value bet.

2024-25 NFL Coach of the Year Predictions

There is another common theme you will find in all of our picks for NFL COY: each coach above is on a team who posted a losing record last year.

• Matt McEwan: Dave Canales (+1800)

This award typically goes to the coach whose team improved the most from last season, and you get extra recognition if it’s your first season with the new team. I understand why Jim Harbaugh and Mike Macdonald are among the top contenders in the NFL COY odds, but I don’t think their respective teams are going to do enough this year.

I think this award is likely going to come down to Raheem Morris and Dave Canales. If the Falcons run away with the division, it’ll be Morris taking home the honors. But I don’t see that happening. I think Carolina will compete for a wild card spot one year after winning just two games, and not even possessing the first overall pick that comes with the league’s worst record. If Bryce Young looks at all serviceable, Canales will be heralded as a QB whisperer and this year’s Coach of the Year.

• Zach Reger: Brian Callahan (+2000)

Brian Callahan and the Titans have brought in a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Tennessee does not have high expectations, but the AFC South is a division that is up for grabs. If the Titans can impress and compete for the division, Callahan’s odds will improve quickly. At +2000 odds, Callahan is worth the shot to win Coach of the Year.

• Brady Trettenero: Matt Eberflus (+850)

While I like many longshots in the NFL futures, I’m not going far down the board for my Coach of the Year pick. Matt Eberflus is in the easiest position to significantly improve his team and record in 2024, and the +850 odds are too good to pass up.

After starting 0-4, the Bears went 7-6 the rest of the way in 2023 and made significant strides on defense under Eberflus’ play-calling. On offense, the Bears have surrounded 2024 No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams with an elite receiving corps, including veterans Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore along with first-round pick Rome Odunze. If the offense takes a big leap, Eberflus will get a lot of credit.

The NFC North is wide open after Aaron Rodgers’ departure from Green Bay. If Eberflus can lead the Bears to their first division title since 2018, that would greatly boost his Coach of the Year chances. The potential for a worst-to-first type turnaround in his third year would resonate with voters, and it has me bullish on his chances.

2024-25 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Predictions

In making our NFL CPOY picks, each one of our experts considered the note put out by the league on how the voters should view this award. So, be sure you do not fall for taking a player like Geno Smith or Joe Flacco from the last two years, who simply won the award by coming back from being bad.

• Matt McEwan: Nick Chubb (+1500)

After last year’s travesty where the voters gave the award to Joe Flacco, who overcame nothing other than not being very good for the last few years, over Damar Hamlin, who literally needed to be revived on the field and then returned to play the next season, I think the voters will have received the NFL’s message on who this award is meant for, and will vote accordingly.

The player who is setup to overcome the biggest injury is Nick Chubb. The Browns’ RB tore so many parts of his knee that it required two separate surgeries. Oh, and this isn’t the first time Chubb has blown out his knee either. Simply returning from this injury is remarkable enough, but I like Chubb to handle some meaningful touches for Cleveland down the stretch.

• Zach Reger: Kirk Cousins (+500)

Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles last season and is now in Atlanta. Cousins should be able to maximize the production of their first-round talent in Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. The Falcons have the best odds to win the NFC South, so if Kirk Cousins plays well and leads Atlanta to the playoffs, he will have a great chance to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year.

• Brady Trettenero: Aaron Rodgers (+140)

I was initially leaning towards Joe Burrow for this bet, but the Ja’Marr Chase contract situation has me a bit worried. Not to mention, Burrow can’t seem to stay healthy, which is why he’s on this list in the first place. Still, I feel he and Rodgers should be closer to co-favorites in this market.

I’m going with Rodgers as I think he will simply be impossible to ignore if everything goes according to plan. He missed virtually all of the 2023 season after tearing his Achilles tendon in Week 1 and now has the chance to put up monster numbers in one of his final NFL seasons.

In his last full season in 2022, Rodgers threw for 3,695 yards and 26 TDs. I think the four-time NFL MVP is going to develop great chemistry with Garrett Wilson, while having a stud like Breece Hall in the backfield only helps. The Jets are projected to be on a bubble playoff team, and I think Rodgers getting them there will lock up the award for him.

As the 2024 NFL season approaches, fans and analysts alike are already buzzing with excitement over who will take home the league’s most prestigious awards. From the coveted NFL MVP award to the Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) honor, there are plenty of talented players vying for recognition in the upcoming season.

One of the most highly anticipated awards is the NFL MVP, which is given to the player deemed most valuable to their team’s success. While it’s always difficult to predict who will come out on top, there are a few standout candidates to keep an eye on in 2024. One player who could be a strong contender for the MVP award is Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has already proven himself as one of the league’s top quarterbacks, and if he can stay healthy and lead his team to a successful season, he could very well be in the running for the MVP title.

Another player to watch for the MVP award is Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love. Love has big shoes to fill following the departure of Aaron Rodgers, but if he can step up and lead the Packers to a successful season, he could be a dark horse candidate for the MVP award.

When it comes to the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, there are several talented newcomers who could make a big impact in their first season in the league. One player to keep an eye on is Detroit Lions quarterback Malik Willis. Willis was selected with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and if he can live up to his potential and lead the Lions to success, he could be a frontrunner for the OROY award.

Another rookie to watch for the OROY award is Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Chris Olave. Olave was selected in the first round of the draft and has already shown flashes of brilliance in training camp. If he can continue to impress on the field and make a big impact for the Jaguars, he could be a strong contender for the OROY award.

Of course, these are just a few of the many talented players who could be in the running for NFL awards in 2024. As the season unfolds, it will be exciting to see which players rise to the occasion and earn recognition for their outstanding performances on the field. Fans can look forward to an action-packed season full of thrilling moments and standout performances from some of the league’s brightest stars.