Sep 17, 2022; Portland, Oregon, USA; Montana State Bobcats quarterback Tommy Mellott (4) scrambles under pressure from Oregon State Beavers linebacker John McCartan (6) during the first half at Providence Park. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
- FSC juggernaut Montana State battles New Mexico of FBS in CFB Week 0
- The latest Montana State vs New Mexico odds favor the Bobcats as 11.5-point favorites
- Read below for Montana State vs New Mexico odds, H2H and predictions
Week 0 of the college football season always delivers some quirky matchups, but this showdown between FCS power Montana State and struggling FBS squad New Mexico might take the cake.
The Bobcats and Lobos are set to square off at University Stadium in Albuquerque on Saturday, August 24th at 4:00 PM EDT on FS1. Oddsmakers are favoring the FCS contender over the FBS bottom feeder.
Let’s examine the odds for Montana State vs New Mexico, as we make our CFB Week 0 prediction.
Montana State vs New Mexico Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State | -11.5 | -549 | 54.5 (Under) |
| New Mexico | +11.5 | +410 | 54.5 (Over) |
The Bobcats, a powerhouse FCS program, opened as 4.5-point road favorites against the Lobos back in early July. However, heavy betting action on MSU has caused this spread to steam all the way up to Bobcats -11.5. If this line holds, it will be the largest spread ever for an FCS team over an FBS squad.
Odds as of August 22nd, at ESPN Sportsbook. Check out the best sports betting sites for CFB Week 0.
With an implied win probability of 84.6% at -549 on the moneyline, the oddsmakers are showing some serious respect to Montana State. New Mexico, meanwhile, has just a 19.6% chance to pull the outright upset at +410 ML odds.
The total of 54.5 feels about right for two teams that like to play fast, especially if New Mexico finds itself in an early hole. But with some slight juice shaded to the under, it seems books are expecting Montana State’s defense to put the clamps on a bit.
H2h History
These two schools have only met twice before, with Montana State holding a 1-0-1 series edge. But you’d have to go all the way back to New Year’s Day 1947 to find their last matchup – a tie in the Harbor Bowl. Ancient history to put it lightly.
Bobcats Betting Analysis
There’s a reason Montana State has become such a heavy favorite in this spot – they’re absolutely loaded. The Bobcats return a ton of talent from an 8-4 squad that only lost to FCS juggernauts NDSU and SDSU by five total points last year.
Montana State’s offense is led by “Touchdown” Tommy Mellott. The dual-threat senior QB put up over 1,700 total yards and 15 TDs in 2023 despite having to split time. He now has the reins of an offense that returns its top 4 rushers and leading receiver Taco McCulloch.
𝐉𝐨𝐛’𝐬 𝐍𝐨𝐭 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐝.@Tommy_Mellott#BobcatBuilt | #GoCatsGo pic.twitter.com/vfVLWS6fzU
— Montana State Football (@MSUBobcats_FB) January 8, 2024
That continuity, along with all five starters back on the offensive line, makes the Bobcats deserving of their favorite status in the Week 0 CFB odds.
Defensively, Montana State was no slouch either in 2023, allowing just 21.8 PPG (17th in the FCS). They return several starters at all three levels, including multiple guys in the secondary who played over 300 snaps last season.
Lobos Betting Analysis
New Mexico is basically starting from scratch in 2024 after a 4-8 season that led to a coaching change. New head man Bronco Mendenhall has a rebuilding job on his hands with the Lobos bringing back just 41% of last year’s production.
The biggest questions come on offense, where New Mexico has to replace its entire starting O-line. Not ideal for sophomore QB Devon Dampier, who showed flashes down the stretch in 2023 with 6 TDs and 0 INTs to close the year. He faces a tough test behind a brand-new front five.
🏈 CFB Player Spotlight
🐺 New Mexico QB, Devon Dampier
New Mexico is an 11 point underdog against FCS Montana State in week one, and I think people are highly underrating Devon Dampier
Dampier lead the Lobos to a road win against Fresno State and nearly knocked off Utah… pic.twitter.com/zF6UJcXCkh
— betsbystevie (@betsbystevie) August 21, 2024
New Mexico’s defense, which surrendered a porous 407.5 yards per game in 2023, will have its hands full against the Bobcats’ powerful ground attack. The Lobos allowed 172.2 rushing YPG last season (103rd in FBS) and now have just six starters back from that unit.
Montana State vs New Mexico Prediction
Montana State is clearly the more talented team, but laying double-digits on an FCS team against an FBS team is always risky. The Bobcats should be able to control this game with their ground attack and experienced defense, but strange things happen in these Week 0 FCS-FBS matchups.
Home field advantage and Montana’s State unfamiliarity of FBS opponent could allow the Lobos to hang around within this inflated 11.5-point spread. You have to remember oddsmakers originally set this line at MSU -4.5. It’s simply too inflated now.
One trend supporting a New Mexico cover is that a home FBS team hosting an FCS team in their season opener has covered in three of five instances. I think the Lobos will rally at home in Mendenhall’s coaching debut to keep this one competitive.
MTST vs NM Pick:
- New Mexico +11.5 (-110)
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
The highly anticipated matchup between Montana State and New Mexico on August 24th is sure to be a thrilling game for college football fans. Both teams have been preparing diligently for this season opener, and the predictions, odds, and spread for this game are generating a lot of buzz among sports enthusiasts.
Montana State, coming off a successful 2018 season where they finished with a 8-4 record, is looking to build on their momentum and start the new season strong. Led by head coach Jeff Choate, the Bobcats have been working hard in the offseason to fine-tune their strategies and improve their gameplay. With key players returning and a solid defense, Montana State is expected to put up a tough fight against New Mexico.
On the other hand, New Mexico is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2018 season where they finished with a 3-9 record. Head coach Bob Davie has been working with his team to address their weaknesses and improve their performance on the field. With a revamped offense and new recruits joining the team, New Mexico is determined to turn things around this season.
In terms of predictions, many sports analysts are predicting a close game between Montana State and New Mexico. Both teams have strengths and weaknesses that could impact the outcome of the game. Montana State’s strong defense and experienced players could give them an edge, while New Mexico’s revamped offense and determination to improve could make them a formidable opponent.
As for the odds and spread for this game, sportsbooks are currently favoring Montana State by a narrow margin. The spread is expected to be close, with both teams having a chance to come out on top. Fans can expect an exciting and competitive game that could go down to the wire.
Overall, the Montana State vs New Mexico game on August 24th is shaping up to be a must-watch event for college football fans. With both teams eager to start the season off with a win, this matchup is sure to deliver plenty of excitement and drama on the field. Be sure to tune in and see which team comes out victorious in this highly anticipated showdown.