Orange Bowl CFP Semifinal: Updated Odds and Prediction for Notre Dame vs Penn State

• The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 1-point favorites over the Penn State Nittany Lions in a College Football Playoff semifinal
• The winner will play either Texas or Ohio State for the national title
• Check the Notre Dame vs Penn State odds, spread and prediction below

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) will battle the Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) tonight at the Orange Bowl in the College Football Playoff semifinal. The winner will face the winner of either Ohio State or Texas for the national championship.

While blowouts have defined the early rounds of the CFP, the books have this one as close to a pick’em as you could find at this point of the season.

Notre Dame vs Penn State Final Odds

The Fighting Irish are slight 1-point favorites in the college football odds, with a total set at 45 points.

Kickoff is scheduled tonight at 7:30pm ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Odds as of January 9 at 11am ET. Be sure to check out the best Caesars Sportsbook promos before placing a bet on any College Football Playoff matchup.

Final Odds Leading to ND vs PSU Kickoff

There’s been some movement over the past week, but it’s stayed within a parameter of three points and has never moved past that in either direction.

Penn State has been as long as 2.5-point underdogs, and ND as short as 2.5-point favorites, with both lines touching all the half-points en route to the final -1 line for the Irish.

There’s no shortage of talent on either of these teams 💪⭐️

Does Notre Dame or Penn State have the more complete team? pic.twitter.com/XzenRDHSvV

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) January 6, 2025

On the moneyline, the Nittany Lions were as long as +120, while the Fighting Irish had been as short as -150, and they’ve slightly moved to their current figures.

Under bettors: hoping you caught this one earlier in the week at 47.5, as its settled in at 45 points, though you can still find some books offering 44.5, if you are seeking the best line for an Over wager.

Weather will not be a factor in Miami: it’s expected to be a clear night with temperatures at 58 degrees at kickoff.

Notre Dame Can Win Multiple Ways

After a 10-point win over Indiana in the opening round, the Fighting Irish dispatched second-seeded Georgia 23-10.

While ND racked up nearly 400 yards of total offense against the Hoosiers, they could only muster 244 against the Bulldogs.

As they have all season, though, they used a smothering defense against Georgia, and were +2 in the turnover department. On the year, they were third in the nation in turnover margin at +18.

FUMBLE! IRISH BALL! pic.twitter.com/LpC2xnhDPf

— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) January 2, 2025

Their run game, which has been their main source of offense through two CFP games, will be tested by the Lions, who were eighth in the NCAA allowing just 100.9 yards per game.

Even if the Irish want to get Riley Leonard throwing more — he had just 90 passing yards against Georgia — PSU also is just outside the Top 25 in passing yards, allowing just 187.9 yards per contest.

Nittany Lions Yet to be Challenged in CFP

The Nittany Lions have rumbled through the first two rounds, crushing SMU 38-10 and then beating up in Boise State 31-14.

Of note in that quarterfinal win was their ability to handle Heisman Finalist Ashton Jeanty to his lowest rushing total of the season, just 104 yards.

TOUCHDOWN NICK SINGLETON! BEAUTIFULLY BLOCKED pic.twitter.com/t2pwkG97PM

— LandonTengwall (@landon_tengwall) January 1, 2025

Their own running back duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have been gangbusters through the playoff. They combined for 160 rush yards and three touchdowns over the Mustangs before piling up 221 yards and a score over Boise State.

QB Drew Allar threw three TD’s against the Broncos, bouncing back from a light 127-yard passing performance against SMU.

Notre Dame’s defense will likewise challenge PSU. The Irish are seventh in yards per game, and rank fourth in passing yards allowed. They are giving up just 127.9 yards on the ground (33rd).

Notre Dame vs Penn State Prediction

Much like the books, the College Football public betting trends are split. Most of the bets are on the Under at 72%, though it’s getting only 58% of the money.

Notre Dame is getting 60% of the bets and 60% of the money on the spread and 61% of the bets and 62% of the money on the moneyline.

These teams both feature elite defense, and it’s hard to envision either Allar or Leonard being able to make consistent big plays in the passing game if the runs are bottled.

This one could some major grind-out potential. Both ND and PSU have failed to hit the Over in any CFP game this season, so let’s stay on trend and see who survives to play for it all.

• Notre Dame vs Penn State Pick: Under 45.0 (-110)

The Orange Bowl is set to host one of the College Football Playoff semifinal matchups between Notre Dame and Penn State, and the excitement is palpable among fans and bettors alike. As the game approaches, oddsmakers have been busy adjusting the betting lines to reflect the latest developments and trends surrounding both teams.

Currently, Notre Dame is listed as a slight favorite over Penn State, with odds of -3.5 points. This means that in order to win a bet on Notre Dame, they would need to win by at least 4 points. On the other hand, Penn State is the underdog with odds of +3.5 points, meaning they can lose by up to 3 points and still cover the spread.

When it comes to the over/under total points for the game, oddsmakers have set the line at 55 points. This suggests that they expect a relatively high-scoring affair between these two powerhouse programs.

In terms of recent performance, Notre Dame comes into the Orange Bowl with a 10-2 record, having won their last four games in a row. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, led by quarterback Jack Coan and running back Kyren Williams. On the defensive side of the ball, the Fighting Irish have been solid all season, ranking in the top 20 in points allowed per game.

Penn State, on the other hand, finished the regular season with an 11-1 record and are riding a six-game winning streak. Their offense is led by quarterback Sean Clifford and running back Noah Cain, who have been instrumental in their success this season. The Nittany Lions also boast a strong defense, ranking in the top 10 in points allowed per game.

As for a prediction for this highly anticipated matchup, it’s shaping up to be a close and competitive game between two evenly matched teams. Notre Dame’s offense may have a slight edge over Penn State’s defense, but the Nittany Lions have shown they can hang with the best of them.

In the end, I believe Notre Dame will come out on top in a hard-fought battle, covering the spread and hitting the over on total points. However, Penn State is more than capable of pulling off the upset, so this game could truly go either way.

Regardless of the outcome, fans can expect an exciting and thrilling contest in the Orange Bowl as these two college football powerhouses clash for a spot in the national championship game.