- No. 8 Utah State battles No. 9 TCU on Friday night in March Madness
- The March Madness odds favor the Horned Frogs by four points
- Read below for Utah State vs TCU odds, prediction, and picks
The Midwest Region of the 2024 March Madness Playoff bracket features a first-round showdown between the No. 8 Utah State Aggies (27-6) and the No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs (21-12) on Friday night. Tipoff is set for 9:55 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, with TBS carrying the broadcast.
The latest March Madness odds favor the Horned Frogs by four points over the Aggies, with the over/under offered at 150.5 points. We’ve made our TCU us USU prediction to help you place an educated wager tonight.
Let’s further analyze the TCU vs Utah State odds, as we make our prediction for this anticipated March Madness clash.
TCU vs Utah State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 9 TCU | -4 (-112) | -185 | Over 150.5 (-110) |
| No. 8 Utah State | +4 (-108) | +154 | Under 150.5 (-110) |
In the TCU vs Utah State odds for Friday March Madness, the Horned Frogs are -185 moneyline favorites over the Aggies. Based on the odds, TCU’s implied win probability is 65%.
Utah State will be making its 24th NCAA Tournament appearance, while TCU is playing in its 11th tournament all-time, including its third straight for the first time in program history.
Odds as of March 22nd, 2024. Claim the Fanatics Sportsbook promo to wager on Friday March Madness action.
TCU vs Utah State Team Stats
| 35 | KenPom Ranking | 48 |
| 114.9 (45) | KP Adj Off Efficiency | 115.8 (37) |
| 98 (32) | KP Adj Def Efficiency | 100.5 (67) |
| 69.8 (63) | KP Adj Tempo | 68.6 (107) |
| +9.59 (53) | KP Strength of Schedule | +6.39 (89) |
| -8.25 (357) | KP Non-Conference SOS | +2.14 (134) |
| 35.57% (97) | 3P% | 33.07% (235) |
| 72.96% (131) | FT% | 71.54% (205) |
| 79.24 (52) | PPG | 79.79 (45) |
| 71.24 (155) | Opp PPG | 70.27 (125) |
| 46.49% (73) | Field Goal % | 49.32% (7) |
| 37.03 (92) | Total Rebounds | 36.30 (127) |
Horned Frogs Betting Analysis
TCU enters Friday night’s showdown following a tough 60-45 loss to Houston in the Big 12 quarterfinal. The Horned Frogs have won a game in each of the past two tournaments before being eliminated in the second round.
TCU is led by forward Emanuel Miller and guards Jameer Nelson Jr. and Micah Peavy. Miller is averaging 15.9 points and 5.9 rebounds a game, while Nelson (11.3) and Peavy (11.1) are the other two players in double digits for the Horned Frogs.
Emanuel Miller shares thoughts on leading TCU to three straight NCAA Tournaments.
Eman is always a must watch presser. pic.twitter.com/Zgr0ocdKlp
— Nick Girimonte (@GirimonteNicky) March 17, 2024
The Horned Frogs pride themselves on their defensive play, as the team is averaging 79.24 points per game, which is just outside the top-50 nationally. Defense is a bit of a different story, however, as the team is allowing 71.24 points per contest, which is 155th in the country.
TCU has been a solid bet against the spread this season, covering the number in 19 of their 33 games. They went 14-10 ATS as a betting favorite, with the “over” hitting in 18 of their contests.
Utah State Betting Analysis
Under the guidance of head coach Danny Sprinkle, Utah State (27-6) won the regular-season Mountain West title before losing to San Diego State in the conference tournament last week in Las Vegas. Sprinkle, a national coach of the year finalist, is rumored to be a candidate for the coaching vacancy at Washington.
Sprinkle led Utah State to its first Mountain West regular-season crown in its 11 seasons in the conference. Despite an impressive regular season in which the team was ranked 20th heading into the NCAA Tournament, Utah State received just a No. 8 seed in the Midwest bracket.
𝗖𝗢𝗔𝗖𝗛𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗙𝗜𝗟𝗘: Danny Sprinkle pic.twitter.com/PVKWrDi4Qk
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) March 20, 2024
Utah State is led by wing Great Osobor, who averages 18.0 points and 9.2 rebounds a game. Ian Martinez leads the backcourt, scoring 13.1 points, while Darius Brown II averages 12.4 points. Mason Falslev is the fourth scorer in double figures, scoring 11.4 points.
Utah State wasn’t quite profitable against the spread this season, posting a 14-15-2 ATS margin. They only secured one upset victory in six games as an underdog, covering the spread on just one occasion as well. The “over” cashed in 19 of their 31 games.
TCU vs Utah State Prediction
While TCU clearly plays in the tougher conference, we like this matchup for the Aggies. Both these teams are rated similarly in offensive efficiency, and the discrepancy in defensive rank (31 vs 87) isn’t as lopsided as it might appear.
When you really dive into the advanced metrics, the Aggies have some nice edges. They rank 11th nationally in interior scoring, and Utah State is 203rd in defending that area. Conversely, the Horned Frogs have an excellent three-point percentage, but Utah State is third in the country in defending the perimeter.
The Horned Frogs were only 9-8 in games away from their home court and 7-7 in games decided by eight points or less. With Jamie Dixon’s club also going 4-7 against ranked teams this season, we think this game will be closer than the odds indicate.
TCU vs USU Pick:
- Utah State +4 (-110)
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In a highly anticipated matchup on March 22, the #8 TCU Horned Frogs will face off against the #9 Utah State Aggies in what is sure to be a thrilling game. Both teams have had successful seasons thus far and are looking to make a statement in this game.
When it comes to the odds, TCU is currently favored to win by a slim margin. The Horned Frogs have been playing solid basketball all season and have a talented roster that includes standout players such as Mike Miles and Kevin Easley Jr. Their strong defense and ability to score efficiently make them a tough team to beat.
On the other hand, Utah State has also been impressive this season, with a record of 24-8. The Aggies have a balanced offense led by Neemias Queta, who is averaging a double-double this season. Their ability to crash the boards and play tough defense has been key to their success.
In terms of predictions, this game is expected to be a close one. Both teams are evenly matched and have the potential to come out on top. TCU will need to rely on their defense to slow down Utah State’s offense, while the Aggies will need to find a way to contain TCU’s scoring threats.
Ultimately, this game could come down to the wire and may be decided in the final minutes. Fans can expect an intense and competitive matchup between these two talented teams. It’s sure to be a game you won’t want to miss.
