Sen. Mark Kelly greets attendees before giving his victory speech at Barrio Café on Nov. 12, 2022, in Phoenix.
- The latest Democratic nomination odds heavily favor Vice President Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden on the ticket
- Former First Lady Michelle Obama is the new second-favorite
- See the odds to win the 2024 Democratic nomination roughly 24 hours after Joe Biden abandoned his re-election campaign
A tumultuous 48 hours has led to complete upheaval in the odds to win the Democratic nomination for the 2024 Presidential Election. On Sunday, incumbent Joe Biden announced he was leaving the race and endorsing his Vice President, Kamala Harris, as his replacement on the ticket.
Biden had already secured enough delegates in the Democratic primary process to win the nomination, but those delegates are not automatically pledged to Harris. Regardless of the endorsement, Biden’s withdrawal from the race frees his delegates to support anyone who gains enough delegate signatures at the Democratic National Convention (300) to appear on the nomination ballot.
That said, oddsmakers are signalling that the result is all but certain. CNN reported on Tuesday that more than half of the delegates have already signalled their support for Harris.
Updated Democratic Nomination Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -3300 |
| Michelle Obama | +1400 |
| Hillary Clinton | +3300 |
| Gavin Newsom | +8000 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +15000 |
Odds as of July 23 at bet365. US residents are not permitted to bet on the American political markets at bet365.
Harris became a heavy favorite the day Biden announced he had contracted COVID, shortening to -200 in the 2024 Democratic nominee odds. She improved to -400 when Biden officially dropped out on Sunday, then to -900 on Monday.
As of Tuesday morning, she was a stunningly short -3300 to lead the Democratic ticket against Donald Trump and JD Vance on Nov. 5. Her odds to win the presidential election have also shortened to +175, while Trump, who was as short as -275 less than a week ago, has faded to -188.
The big question now becomes: who will the current VP choose as her own running mate?
Democratic Vice President Nominee Odds 2024
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mark Kelly | +137 |
| Josh Shapiro | +250 |
| Roy Cooper | +400 |
| Andrew Beshear | +1000 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +1200 |
| Tim Walz | +3300 |
| Jay Robert Pritzker | +3300 |
| Hillary Clinton | +3300 |
| Michelle Obama | +3300 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +5000 |
| Gavin Newsom | +5000 |
| Wes Moore | +5000 |
| Kamala Harris | +8000 |
| Cory Booker | +12500 |
The early odds to be (presumably) Harris’ running mate show three clear favorites at the top of the board: Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, a former Navy captain and astronaut; Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro; and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper.
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
As the 2020 presidential election draws closer, all eyes are on the Democratic Party as they work to select their nominee to challenge incumbent President Donald Trump. One candidate who has been gaining momentum in recent weeks is Senator Kamala Harris.
Harris, who represents California in the Senate, has been steadily climbing in the polls and is now leading the pack in terms of Democratic nomination odds. Her strong debate performances and clear policy positions have resonated with voters across the country, and many see her as a formidable opponent to Trump in the general election.
In addition to Harris, two other candidates who are generating buzz are former congresswoman Gabby Giffords’ husband Mark Kelly and conservative commentator Ben Shapiro. Both Kelly and Shapiro are seen as potential vice presidential picks for the eventual Democratic nominee, and they are currently topping the list of favorites for the VP slot.
Kelly, a former astronaut and gun control advocate, has been praised for his strong stance on issues like healthcare and climate change. His military background and bipartisan appeal make him an attractive choice for many Democrats looking to unite the party and appeal to a broad base of voters.
Shapiro, on the other hand, is a controversial figure known for his conservative views and provocative rhetoric. While some Democrats may be wary of selecting him as a running mate, others see his ability to energize the Republican base as a potential asset in the general election.
As the Democratic primary continues to unfold, it will be interesting to see how these candidates fare and whether they will ultimately be chosen to lead the party to victory in November. With Harris leading the pack and Kelly and Shapiro emerging as top VP favorites, the 2020 election is shaping up to be one of the most hotly contested in recent memory.
