Expert and Computer Predictions for NFL Week 11 Upsets

• Want some help or confirmation on betting the remaining 13 games in Week 11 of the 2024-25 NFL season?
• I have teamed up with my SBD formula to offer our moneyline picks for each game in Week 11
• See our Week 11 NFL picks below!

Week 11 of the 2024-25 NFL season got underway Thursday night, and featured another 13 games across Sunday and Monday. If you’re looking for help in betting any of these remaining Week 11 games, I have paired up with my SBD formula to offer our Week 11 NFL picks below!

As usual, I am going to focus on the underdogs my SBD formula and I believe can win their games outright, making them good bets on the moneyline. In doing so, we are technically sharing picks for each game, though.

I went 0-1 last week, but the Buccaneers came close to pulling off a big upset, while my SBD formula did not have any predicted upsets. If you did take the three teams I highlighted where it had the favorite winning by a very small margin, the underdog went 3-0 in those games. Here’s who we’re both on for Week 11!

Week 11 NFL Picks

It’s another shorter list of upset picks for Week 11 from my SBD formula and I. However, we are both predicting at least one upset this weekend, and have a combined three underdogs to bet on the moneyline. As I said above, if you are looking for picks for each game in Week 11, you have received them. My SBD formula has favorites winning all but one game.

For some extra insight, these are the teams my SBD formula has winning their respective matchup by less than three points:

1. Jets to beat Colts by 0.4 points
2. Bills to beat Chiefs by 1.2 points

It has every other favorite (outside of the Ravens, who it has losing to the Steelers) winning their game by at least three points – this does include the Saints, as they were the consensus favorites at the time of writing this. If anything changes, I will provide an update on my Twitter/X.

As usual, the moneyline picks above come with the best odds at the time of writing this article. Those odds are likely to be stale by the time you read this, so be sure to check our NFL odds page for the best price at the time you are reading this!

Also, if you wanted more than just moneyline picks for Week 11, you can check out John Hyslop’s Week 11 NFL player props and/or Zach Reger’s Week 11 NFL picks against the spread. If you are looking for some analysis on the picks above, keep scrolling!

Browns Over Saints

As is the case with many of these upset picks this season, this pick is more about fading the Saints than it is backing the Browns. I am simply not a believer in Darren Rizzi’s Saints.

In their first game under their new head coach, New Orleans was outgained by more than 100 yards, saw the Falcons possess the ball for more than 35 minutes, and only scored three points in the second half. Yes, they won the game, but I think this was just one of those weird Kirk Cousins games.

The Saints cannot stop the run, they give up 5.1 yards per carry, are not good against the pass, they allow the seventh-most net yards per pass attempt, and their offense has been pretty bad outside of the first two weeks. They don’t face a very good football team in Week 11, but I do think the Browns should win this one.

Cleveland has decided to stick with Jameis Winston this Sunday as they come off their bye week, setting up a bit of a revenge game for their QB. I think he’ll come out with something to prove and think the Browns have the advantage on both offense and defense.

• Pick: Browns moneyline (-108 at FanDuel)

Colts Over Jets

This pick is very similar to above. I appreciate that there isn’t a ton of confidence in Anthony Richardson, who is taking back over under center for Indianapolis, right now, but why does anyone have faith in the Jets right now?

New York is fresh off being blown out 31-6 by the Cardinals. The Jets only managed 207 total yards in the game and the Cardinals took their foot off the gas the entire fourth quarter. They are now 1-4 since firing Robert Saleh and don’t seem to be showing any promise of putting things together.

At the very least, I have some optimism that a couple games on the bench has motivated Richardson, while four Joe Flacco interceptions and back-to-back passer ratings south of 80 over the last two games has proven to the Colts offense that they need to rally around their second-year QB.

This should be a coin toss game, not one where Indianapolis is getting +176 odds.

• Pick: Colts moneyline (+176 at FanDuel)

As we head into Week 11 of the NFL season, experts and computer algorithms are buzzing with predictions for potential upsets. With several teams facing tough matchups and others looking to make a statement, there are plenty of opportunities for surprises on the gridiron.

One of the most talked-about potential upsets this week is the matchup between the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons. The Patriots have been on a hot streak lately, but the Falcons have shown flashes of brilliance and could pull off a surprise win at home. Experts are split on this game, with some favoring the Patriots and others giving the edge to the Falcons.

Another game to keep an eye on is the showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and the Chicago Bears. The Ravens have been dominant this season, but the Bears have been playing well and could give them a run for their money. Computer algorithms are predicting a close game, with the potential for an upset brewing.

In addition to these marquee matchups, there are several other games that experts and computers are eyeing for potential upsets. The Miami Dolphins could surprise the New York Jets, the Carolina Panthers could upset the Washington Football Team, and the Denver Broncos could shock the Los Angeles Chargers.

Ultimately, predicting upsets in the NFL is always a tricky business. Anything can happen on any given Sunday, and that’s what makes the game so exciting. As we head into Week 11, keep an eye on these potential upsets and see if the experts and computers are on point or if there are some surprises in store.