Dec 1, 2022; Doha, Qatar; Spain midfielder Rodri (16) kicks the ball against Japan during the second half of a group stage match during the 2022 World Cup at Khalifa International Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports
- Two 1-0 teams meet in Group B action when Italy and Spain clash at Arena AufSchalke in Gelsenkirchen on Thursday
- Spain is 3-2-0 against Italy in the last five head-to-head meetings; Italy hasn’t beating Spain since Euro 2016
- See the Spain vs Italy odds, predictions, projected starting lineups, and betting trends
A clash likely to determine top spot in Group B is on Thursday’s schedule at Euro 2024 as Spain (1-0-0) meet Italy (1-0-0) at Arena AufSchalke in Gelsenkirchen at 3:00 pm ET. Spain was arguably the most-impressive team of the first matchday, recording a 3-0 win against Croatia (#9 in the FIFA world rankings). After conceding the fastest goal in Euro history to Albania just 24 second into their opening match, Italy responded with a pair of first half goals of their own en route to a 2-1 victory.
With Croatia and Albania drawing 2-2 yesterday, a win for either Italy or Spain today would clinch first place in Group B. The Spain vs Italy odds favor the Spaniards, but both teams are at plus-money to take the full three points.
Spain vs Italy Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | +125 | Over 2.5 (+130) |
| Italy | +240 | Under 2.5 (-165) |
| Draw | +205 | N/A |
Spain is listed at +125 in the three-way moneyline, which equals a 44.44% implied win probability. Italy is priced at +240 (29.41%) with the draw at +205 (32.79%).
Odds as of June 20 at DraftKings. See the list of DraftKings states where you can bet on Euro 2024.
Spain is currently the fifth-favorite in the Euro 2024 title at +725, on average. Italy is only two spots behind in seventh, but at much longer odds (+1575).
Spain has won the last two head-to-head meetings with Italy – a 2-1 neutral-site win in the 2023 Nations League final, and a 2-1 away victory during the 2021 Nations League final – and is unbeaten in five straight against Gli Azzurri. Italy’s last victory came in the round of 16 at the 2016 Euro in France, when they earned a 2-0 win.
If both managers employ the same starting 11 as their tournament-opening matches, here is how the teams will lineup on Thursday night.
Italy vs Spain Projected Lineups
| Italy | Spain |
|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma (GK) | Unai Simon (GK) |
| Federico Dimarco (LB) | Marc Cucurella (LB) |
| Riccardo Calafiori (CB) | Nacho Fernandez (CB) |
| Alessandro Bastoni (CB) | Robin Le Normand (CB) |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo (RB) | Daniel Carvajal (RB) |
| Nicolo Barella (LMF) | Fabian Ruiz (LMF) |
| Jorginho (RMF) | Rodri (CMF) |
| Federico Chiesa (LW) | Pedri (LMF) |
| Davide Frattesi (RW) | Nico Williams (LW) |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini (SS) | Lamine Yamal (RW) |
| Gianluca Scamacca (STR) | Alvaro Morata (STR) |
Spain got goals from Alvaro Morata, Rodri, and Daniel Carvajal in their win over Croatia, while keeper Unai Simon stopped a late penalty to retain his team’s clean sheet.
After falling behind Albania, Italy responded with goals from Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella within 15 minutes to take the lead.
Italy Last 10 Matches
| Opponent | Opp. FIFA Rank | Date | Location | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 66 | Jun 15, 2024 | Neutral | W 2-1 |
| Bosnia & Herz. | 75 | Jun 9, 2024 | Home | W 1-0 |
| Turkey | 42 | Jun 4, 2024 | Home | D 0-0 |
| Ecuador | 30 | Mar 24, 2024 | Home | W 2-0 |
| Venezuela | 54 | Mar 21, 2024 | Home | W 2-1 |
| Ukraine | 24 | Nov 20, 2023 | Away | D 0-0 |
| N. Macedonia | 71 | Nov 17, 2023 | Home | W 5-2 |
| England | 5 | Oct 17, 2023 | Away | L 3-1 |
| Malta | 172 | Oct 14, 2023 | Home | W 4-0 |
| Ukraine | 24 | Sep 12, 2023 | Home | W 2-1 |
Italy has a solid 7-2-1 record in its last ten matches, the only loss coming away at England (3-1) last October. The wins include victories over Ukraine and Ecuador, both at home.
Spain Last 10 Matches
| Opponent | Opp. FIFA Rank | Date | Location | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 9 | Jun 15, 2024 | Neutral | W 3-0 |
| N. Ireland | 73 | Jun 8, 2024 | Home | W 5-1 |
| Andorra | 162 | Jun 5, 2024 | Home | W 5-0 |
| Brazil | 4 | Mar 26, 2024 | Home | D 3-3 |
| Colombia | 12 | Mar 22, 2024 | Neutral | L 1-0 |
| Georgia | 74 | Nov 19, 2023 | Home | W 3-1 |
| Cyprus | 126 | Nov 16, 2023 | Away | W 3-1 |
| Norway | 46 | Oct 15, 2023 | Away | W 1-0 |
| Scotland | 39 | Oct 12, 2023 | Home | W 2-0 |
| Cyprus | 126 | Sep 12, 2023 | Home | W 6-0 |
Spain is 8-1-1 across its last ten matches, including friendlies. La Roja blitzed through qualifying in a dangerous group with Scotland, Norway, Georgia, and Cyprus, going 7-0-1 with a +20 goal differential. Their only loss was a 2-0 setback away to Scotland, the Group A runners-up.
Spain vs Italy Prediction
Spain’s performance against Croatia was brilliant, especially in the first half. They controlled the tempo and possession from the outset against a top-ten team, albeit an aging one. They are fielding a similar squad that’s bested Italy in the last two Nations League finals with an injection of youth/speed from Lamine Yamal. Derided as something less than a world-class #9, Alvaro Morata still fits perfectly into a Spain squad with capable goalscorers all over the pitch.
Spain is apt to control the bulk of the play against Italy just as it did against Croatia, and should break through for the opening goal.
But each of the last two Spain/Italy matches and three of the last four have gone over 2.5 goals, and at the rate goals are going in this tournament, I like the value on another over at significant plus money.
Spain vs Italy picks:
- Spain moneyline (+125)
- Over 2.5 (+130)
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
The highly anticipated Euro 2024 Group Stage match between Spain and Italy is set to take place on June 20th. Both teams are coming into the tournament with high expectations and will be looking to secure a crucial victory in this match.
Spain, under the guidance of manager Luis Enrique, will be looking to make a statement in this match. The Spanish team boasts a talented squad with the likes of Sergio Ramos, Sergio Busquets, and Alvaro Morata leading the way. With their possession-based style of play and quick passing, Spain will be looking to dominate the midfield and create scoring opportunities against Italy.
On the other hand, Italy, led by manager Roberto Mancini, will be looking to continue their strong form in the tournament. The Italian team has been in impressive form recently, with wins against top teams like France and Germany. With a solid defense led by veteran goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma and a potent attack featuring Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne, Italy will be a tough opponent for Spain.
In terms of predictions, this match is expected to be a close and intense battle between two top European teams. Both Spain and Italy have the quality to come out on top, so it could go either way. However, Spain may have a slight edge due to their experience and depth in their squad.
As for picks, it would be wise to keep an eye on players like Morata and Insigne, who have the ability to change the game with their goal-scoring prowess. Additionally, the midfield battle between Busquets and Italy’s Jorginho will be crucial in determining the outcome of the match.
In terms of odds, Spain may be slight favorites in this match, but anything can happen in football. It will be important for both teams to stay focused and execute their game plan to come out on top.
Finally, the starting lineups for both teams will be crucial in determining the outcome of the match. Look out for any potential injuries or suspensions that could impact the starting XI for either team.
Overall, the Spain vs Italy match on June 20th promises to be an exciting and competitive encounter between two top European teams. Fans can expect a thrilling game with plenty of action and drama as both teams look to secure a crucial victory in the Euro 2024 Group Stage.
