Analyzing NFL Week 6 Matchups: Predictions Against the Spread and Key Betting Lines to Consider

• NFL Week 6 starts with the Seahawks catching a full field goal at home to the 49ers
• The Giants are also sizable home underdogs to the Bengals
• Below, see my three favorite early NFL Week 6 picks against the spread

Week 5 in the NFL isn’t quite in the books, with the Saints and Chiefs set for a MNF battle tonight, but the 13 games that have already concluded added more fuel to the league-of-parity fire that’s been burning brightly all season.

Eight of the 13 games had a margin of victory of six points or fewer, and the two biggest favorites (49ers and Seahawks) both lost straight-up at home.

The early Week 6 NFL odds include a few lines that I was very surprised to see go beyond a field goal.

Week 6 NFL Picks Against the Spread

All three of my early ATS picks this week are home underdogs catching a field goal or more.

NFL point spreads as of Oct 7. Download the top football betting apps to wager on Week 6. 

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 NFL picks: 13-14 (-0.17 units)

Week 6 ATS Pick #1: Seattle Seahawks +3 (-100) vs San Francisco 49ers

Despite a litany of injuries on both sides of the ball, the 49ers (2-3, 0-2 away) are still being handicapped as the clear NFC favorites, but they haven’t played like it since Week 1.

Their only wins this year have come against the Jets (32-19), who are bad, and the Patriots (30-13), who are worse.

I don’t love the makeup of Seattle. Geno Smith was playing over his head during their 3-0 start and the defense is nothing more than mediocre.

But they still have a big home-field advantage and shouldn’t be catching a full field goal at home to a struggling Niners team.

Week 6 ATS Pick #2: Denver Broncos +3 (-110) vs Los Angeles Chargers

Don’t get me wrong: I think the Chargers are much-improved this season with Jim Harbaugh on the sideline. He’s going to complete change the culture and narrative around the hardluck Chargers by the time his tenure ends. But his squad shouldn’t be laying a field goal on the road at Milehight against a Denver team that’s rapidly improving.

The Broncos have won three straight after their convincing 34-18 home victory over the Raiders.

Yes, Las Vegas is about the lowest quality of competition the NFL has to offer this year, but the Broncos have also put the boots to the Buccaneers (26-7 away) as 5.5-point underdogs, and outlasted the Jets (10-9 away) as 8.5-point underdogs in the last three weeks.

While rookie QB Bo Nix has a lot of work to do, he has the benefit of a legit defense helping him out. Denver currently ranks fifth in the league in D-DVOA and is tied for third in scoring (14.3 PPG).

The Chargers bring an excellent defense as well (12.5 PPG), and I don’t expect Nix and company to put up a lot of points. LAC has scored 68 points in their first four games, though (17.0 PPG).

Week 6 ATS Pick #3: New York Giants +3.5 (-110) vs Cincinnati Bengals

I really don’t understand why Cincinnati is still being priced like a Super Bowl contender. The offense played a near-perfect game against the Ravens in Week 5 – Joe Burrow was 30-of-39 for 392 yards and five TDs – and they still came out on the losing end of a 41-38 score thanks to a horrendous and injury-riddled defense.

Now we expect the Bengals to go on the road and cover -3.5 against a much-improved Giants team that just handed Seattle its first loss (29-20)?

I’m not buying it.

With rising star Malik Nabers in the mix, quarterback Daniel Jones looks shockingly competent under center for the Giants. And Nabers didn’t even play in the win over Seattle.

Daniel Jones finds Malik Nabers WIDE open for the big gain!#DALvsNYG on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/5jct415PMJ

— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2024

The ground game remains New York’s bread-and-butter, even without Saquon Barkley, but Jones’ newfound ability to keep defenses honest has been a huge difference-maker.

The NY defense, meanwhile, is miles ahead of the Bengal defense at the moment. They’ve limited their last four opponents to 21 or fewer points, averaging 19.0 PPG in that span.

I won’t be the least bit surprise in the Giants win this game straight-up and am jumping at the chance to get them with a field goal plus a hook.

As we head into Week 6 of the NFL season, there are several exciting matchups on the schedule that are sure to keep fans on the edge of their seats. In this article, we will analyze some of the key matchups and provide predictions against the spread as well as key betting lines to consider.

One of the most highly anticipated games of the week is the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Washington Football Team. The Chiefs are coming off a tough loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 5, but they are still considered one of the top teams in the league. They will be facing a Washington team that has struggled to find consistency this season. The Chiefs are currently favored by 7 points in this matchup, and we predict that they will cover the spread and come out on top.

Another intriguing matchup to keep an eye on is the game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Cleveland Browns. Both teams have been playing well this season, with the Cardinals boasting an undefeated record heading into Week 6. The Browns, on the other hand, have been solid on both sides of the ball and are coming off a big win against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Cardinals are favored by 3 points in this matchup, and we predict that they will cover the spread and remain undefeated.

One game that could go either way is the matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the New England Patriots. The Cowboys have been one of the most impressive teams in the league this season, with quarterback Dak Prescott playing at an MVP level. The Patriots, on the other hand, have shown flashes of brilliance but have also struggled at times. The Cowboys are favored by 3.5 points in this matchup, and while we believe they will come out on top, we predict that the Patriots will cover the spread.

Overall, Week 6 of the NFL season is shaping up to be an exciting one with several key matchups to keep an eye on. As always, it’s important to do your research and consider all factors before placing any bets. Good luck to all bettors this week!