Aug 5, 2023; Dallas, Texas, USA; Jake Paul reacts after the win against Nate Diaz in a boxing match at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
- Jake Paul vs Mike Perry prop bets are rolling in as we approach fight night on Saturday
- Will this fight go the distance? How will it end? We break down the odds and best bets
- Check out our Paul vs Perry predictions, full betting preview and analysis below
Jake Paul vs Mike Perry prop bets are popping up left and right ahead of their clash this Saturday, July 20th at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.
The YouTuber-turned-boxer Paul was originally penciled in to face heavyweight legend Mike Tyson, but Tyson withdrew due to illness. In steps bare-knuckle brawler and ex-UFC welterweight Mike Perry on short notice.
The boxing betting odds still heavily favor Paul at around -400, with Perry a +300 underdog. But a deeper look at the prop bets reveals some interesting opportunities for bettors. Let’s dive into the best props and predictions for Saturday’s cruiserweight showdown.
Will Paul vs Perry Go the Distance?
| Goes the Distance | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +160 |
| No | -200 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of July 19, 2024. Check out available DraftKings promos for Paul vs Perry.
One of the most popular prop bets for any boxing match is whether the fight will go the full scheduled distance or end inside the limit. For this 8-round bout, oddsmakers strongly favor an early finish, with “No” juiced to -200.
However, I actually lean toward this fight going the distance at +160. While Paul has shown KO power, it’s come against fairly low-level opposition. Perry is as tough as they come, with an incredible chin and only 1 KO loss in MMA and bare-knuckle fighting.
Mike Perry flexes after taking off his “silk pajamas” and making weight 😁 #PaulPerry pic.twitter.com/0rvfuvDGk6
— MMA Fighting (@MMAFighting) July 19, 2024
Perry will bring relentless pressure, which could give Paul some problems, but I expect the YouTuber to use his reach and mobility to stay on the outside and rack up points. He’s gone 8 rounds before and shown the ability to adapt mid-fight.
I don’t see Perry having the boxing skills to seriously trouble Paul or score a stoppage himself. His best path to victory is swarming Paul and making it a dog fight, but Paul is smart enough to avoid those battles.
Prediction:
- Fight Goes the Distance – Yes (+160)
Paul vs Perry Method of Victory
| Method of Victory | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jake Paul by KO/TKO/DQ | -130 |
| Jake Paul by Decision | +210 |
| Mike Perry by KO/TKO/DQ | +450 |
| Mike Perry by Decision | +1200 |
While the oddsmakers favor Paul to win by stoppage, I actually see a lot of value on the YouTube star to win by decision at +210 (32.3% implied probability).
Paul has shown improvements in his boxing, but I question if his power will hold up against an iron-chinned veteran like Perry. He’s still early in his development, and Perry is a massive step up from the likes of AnEsonGib and Nate Robinson.
I expect Paul to fight a smart, measured fight, using his jab and movement to frustrate Perry and pile up points. He’s gone the distance in four of his 10 fights, so he knows how to maintain his composure and stick to a gameplan.
Perry will be there all night brawling, but I don’t see him winning minutes cleanly, and it’s unlikely he catches Paul with a fight-ending shot. A wide decision win for the A-side is the most probable outcome to me.
Pick:
- Jake Paul by Decision (+210)
Jake Paul vs Mike Perry Round Betting
| Jake Paul Wins in… | Odds |
|---|---|
| Round 1 | +1000 |
| Round 2 | +1000 |
| Round 3 | +900 |
| Round 4 | +850 |
| Round 5 | +850 |
| Round 6 | +1000 |
| Round 7 | +1200 |
| Round 8 | +1400 |
Since I’m predicting a decision win for Paul, I don’t have a strong lean on the round betting props. That said, if you do fancy a Paul stoppage, rounds 5-8 offer the best value.
Perry has never been stopped due to strikes, so it’s more likely Paul wears him down with an accumulation of punches rather than one big shot. The +850 on round 5 and the ascending odds from there look appealing.
For a longshot, Paul in round 7 at +1200 is intriguing. We’ve seen him fade late in fights before, and maybe Perry’s pressure could force him to empty the gas tank for a late stoppage. But overall, this feels like a true pick’em in the round props.
Lean:
- Paul in Round 7 (+1200)
Other Paul vs Perry Props to Watch
A few other prop bets caught my eye:
- Jake Paul wins by unanimous decision (+250) – My projected outcome at solid odds
- Fight ends in 1st minute of Round 1 (+3000) – Unlikely but fun $5 lottery ticket bet
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
As the highly anticipated boxing match between Jake Paul and Mike Perry approaches, fans and bettors alike are eagerly analyzing the betting props to determine the potential outcome of a decision victory for ‘Problem Child.’
Jake Paul, a controversial YouTube star turned professional boxer, has quickly risen to fame in the boxing world with his impressive performances and knockout victories. On the other hand, Mike Perry, a seasoned MMA fighter known for his aggressive fighting style, poses a formidable challenge for Paul in this upcoming bout.
When it comes to analyzing the betting props for a decision victory for Jake Paul, there are several factors to consider. One key factor is Paul’s boxing skills and technique. Despite his limited experience in the ring, Paul has shown significant improvement in his boxing abilities and has demonstrated his power and accuracy in his previous fights.
Another important factor to consider is Mike Perry’s fighting style and strategy. Perry is known for his aggressive approach and willingness to engage in a brawl, which could pose a threat to Paul’s more technical boxing style. However, Perry’s lack of experience in boxing compared to MMA could also work in Paul’s favor.
In addition, the betting odds for a decision victory for Jake Paul may also be influenced by factors such as the fighters’ physical condition, training camp preparation, and mental focus leading up to the fight. It is important for bettors to closely monitor any updates or news regarding both fighters’ training and preparation in order to make an informed decision when placing their bets.
Ultimately, predicting the outcome of a decision victory for ‘Problem Child’ in the upcoming match against Mike Perry is a challenging task that requires careful analysis of various factors. While both fighters have their strengths and weaknesses, it will ultimately come down to who can execute their game plan effectively on fight night.
As the excitement continues to build for this highly anticipated bout, fans and bettors can look forward to an action-packed showdown between Jake Paul and Mike Perry, with the potential for a decision victory for ‘Problem Child’ adding an extra layer of intrigue to the matchup.