Analysis of UFC 306 Matchup: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili – Odds, Picks, Predictions & Props

Oct 22, 2022; Abu Dhabi, UAE; Sean O’Malley (blue gloves) defeats Petr Yan (red gloveS) during UFC 280 at Etihad Arena. Mandatory Credit: Craig Kidwell-USA TODAY Sports

• UFC 306 takes place this Saturday, September 14, at The Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada
• Bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley defends his title against top contender Merab Dvalishvili in the main event
• Read below for UFC 306 odds, predictions, and analysis for the biggest fights on the main card

The UFC is set to make history on Saturday,, with UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili at The Sphere in Las Vegas. This special “Noche UFC” event, celebrating Mexican Independence Day, kicks off with the early prelims at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the prelims at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPNews.

Headlining the event is a highly anticipated bantamweight title clash between champion Sean O’Malley and top contender Merab Dvalishvili. The co-main event features a flyweight title trilogy bout between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko.

With several other intriguing matchups on the card, let’s dive into the odds and predictions for UFC 306.

UFC 306 Odds (Main Card)

The UFC 306 main card features several enticing matchups, with Ronaldo Rodriguez, Daniel Zellhuber, Diego Lopes, Alexa Grasso, and Sean O’Malley entering as betting favorites.

The closest odds are found in the main event, with O’Malley a slight -130 favorite over Dvalishvili at +110. The implied chance of “Suga” winning is 56.5%.

The stacked main card begins at 10:00 p.m. ET, exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

Odds as of August 15, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the available DraftKings promos for UFC 306. 

Sean O’Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili Prediction

The main event features a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, with champion Sean O’Malley (-130) taking on Merab Dvalishvili (+110). O’Malley’s striking is a thing of beauty, boasting a 77% striking defense and landing 7.63 significant strikes per minute.

However, Dvalishvili’s wrestling is on another level, averaging 7.30 takedowns per 15 minutes and dominating some of the best in the business. The 33-year-old’s elite grappling hjas led him to victories over the likes of Jose Aldo and Henry Cejudo.

For O’Malley to retain his title, he needs to keep this fight standing and make Dvalishvili pay for every takedown attempt. If he can do that, he has a clear path to victory. But if Dvalishvili can consistently get him to the ground, it could be a long night for the champ.

It’s a close one, but the value might be with the underdog Dvalishvili at +110. His grappling and cardio are relentless, and he could wear O’Malley down over five rounds. However, don’t sleep on O’Malley’s striking and takedown defense. This one could easily come down to the judges.

Picks:

• Merab Dvalishvili ML (+110)
• Over 4.5 Rounds (-130)

Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko Prediction

The co-main event sees Alexa Grasso (-135) battle Valentina Shevchenko (+114) for the flyweight title. Their first fight saw Grasso submitting Shevchenko, while the rematch ended in a controversial split draw. Now, they meet for the third time.

Shevchenko, an absolute legend, is undoubtedly gunning to get her title back. Her striking and takedowns are always on point, and her experience in big fights is second to none. However, Grasso has proven to be Shevchenko’s kryptonite, outstriking her in their last two meetings and showing improved takedown defense.

If Grasso can keep this fight standing and push the pace, she could outpoint Shevchenko over five rounds. Oddsmakers clearly think she’ll be able to keep the fight off the mat, giving the 31-year-old Mexican

With the rivalry tied at 1-0-1, this trilogy bout could be the most closely contested yet. Both women have the tools to win, but Grasso’s momentum and stylistic advantages make her my slight lean. Expect another technical, back-and-forth affair that goes the distance.

Picks:

• Alexa Grasso ML (-135)
• Fight Goes the Distance (-200)

UFC 306 Quick Picks

In addition to my picks for the two main events, I’ve identified a couple of other UFC 306 best bets for Saturday night.

Brian Ortega (+150) vs Diego Lopes

This featherweight scrap between two high-level grapplers is intriguing. Lopes has been on a roll and may have the edge in striking. But Ortega’s jiu-jitsu is no joke, and he’s got heart for days. Lopes is the favorite, but I like the value on Ortega to pull off the upset.

Daniel Zellhuber (-230) vs Esteban Ribovics

Keep an eye on this lightweight clash between two up-and-comers. Zellhuber’s length and reach could be a problem for the hard-hitting Ribovics. The smart money is on Zellhuber getting the job done.

Raul Rosas Jr. (-850) vs Aori Qileng

At just 19 years old, Raul Rosas Jr. is a phenom. Sure, Qileng is no pushover, but Rosas Jr.’s grappling should be too much for him. Expect a submission win for the young gun.

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