Former President Donald Trump appears with U.S. Senator JD Vance outside Wright Bros. Aero Inc at the Dayton International Airport on March 16, 2024 in Dayton, Ohio.
- Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election improved failed to improve on Monday when he announced JD Vance as his running mate
- Vance is widely seen as appealing to a dedicated base that already fervently supports Trump
- See the latest 2024 Presidential Election odds for Trump, Biden, and all others remaining on the board
The last two weeks have been a windfall for Donald Trump, Following a brutal debate performance from incumbent Joe Biden and a failed assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania, Trump’s 2024 elections odds soared to -278, on average. But that wave of momentum may be breaking on the first day of the Republican National Convention.
Trump selected Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate in November, and it didn’t lead to the boost many were expecting.
Vance was widely seen as the most MAGA-friendly of the potential VP candidates, which is why many pundits thought Trump – who already has that vote in the bag – would go in a different direction.
Updated 2024 Presidential Election Odds (July 15)
| Candidate (Party) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -275 |
| Joe Biden | +450 |
| Kamala Harris | +1100 |
| Michelle Obama | +2200 |
| Gavin Newsom | +2500 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +3300 |
| Robert Kennedy Jr | +5000 |
| Hillary Clinton | +6600 |
| Nikki Haley | +10000 |
| Erik Prince | +15000 |
| Marco Rubio | +15000 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | +20000 |
| Antony Blinken | +20000 |
| Bernie Sanders | +20000 |
| Chris Murphy | +20000 |
| Oprah Winfrey | +20000 |
Trump’s odds remained at -275 at bet365 as of Monday afternoon following the Vance announcement. His (likely) challenger, Joe Biden, improved to +450 from +525 just two days ago, while Biden’s most-likely replacement, VP Kamala Harris, has faded to +1100 as the incumbent remains insistent that he’ll remain on the Democratic ticket.
Odds as of July 15 at bet365. Claim a bet365 bonus code today.
Was Vance an Unwise Pick for VP?
The selection of Vance as his running mate may be an indication that former President Trump is feeling invincible after surviving a bullet to the head. Vance and Trump will see eye to eye on most issues, and should make excellent travelling buddies on the election trail. But Trump is running the risk of alienating anyone with the slightest hint of moderation in their political leanings.
Vance underperformed against most other Republicans in the 2022 midterms, narrowly beating out Democrat Tim Ryan (53.1 vs 46.9%) and retaining the seat vacated Rob Portman for the GOP. He’s a vocal endorser of the claim that the 2020 election was “stolen” from Trump.
Can Biden Recover?
It’s hard to argue that any incumbent has had a worse fortnight than Joe Biden in the build up to his re-election effort. Biden has appeared discombobulated and borderline incompetent while floundering in last month’s debate and, more recently, calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy by the name “President Putin”.
According to fivethirtyeight, Biden’s approval rating had dropped from 39.9% on June 20 to just 37.9 at last check.
His odds to win re-election were approaching even money late in 2023 and then faded all the way to +600 in early July when calls for him to step down were at their loudest.
Over the last ten days, though, Biden has improved from +600 to +450, and as the political reality of Vance sinks in, it’s likely he’ll grow even shorter as long as he doesn’t drop out of the race.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, political analysts and pundits are closely examining the potential candidates and their chances of winning the race. One of the most talked-about scenarios is the possibility of former President Donald Trump running for office again, this time with former Missouri Senator Josh Hawley as his running mate.
Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 election have been a topic of much debate, with some experts predicting that his controversial presidency and the events of January 6th will make it difficult for him to secure a second term. However, recent developments have suggested that Trump may have a stronger chance than previously thought.
One key factor in Trump’s favor is the recent announcement that he has chosen former North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory as his running mate. McCrory is seen as a moderate Republican who could help Trump appeal to a broader range of voters, particularly in swing states.
Another development that has boosted Trump’s chances is the announcement that he has chosen former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as his Secretary of Defense. Pompeo is a well-respected figure in the Republican Party and his presence on the ticket could help reassure voters who may have concerns about Trump’s foreign policy experience.
On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden’s chances of winning re-election have also improved in recent months. Biden’s approval ratings have been steadily rising, thanks in part to his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the passage of the American Rescue Plan.
Additionally, Biden’s selection of former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley as his running mate has been widely praised as a smart move that could help him appeal to moderate and independent voters.
Overall, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a closely contested race, with both Trump and Biden facing challenges and opportunities as they seek to win over the American electorate. Only time will tell which candidate will ultimately emerge victorious in what is sure to be a historic and closely watched election.
