Week 11 College Football Prediction, Pick & Odds for Iowa vs UCLA

• Our Iowa vs UCLA prediction for Friday focuses on the game total
• The latest Friday night CFB odds favor the Hawkeyes by nearly a touchdown
• Read below for full Iowa vs UCLA betting prediction, odds and pick

Week 11 of CFB brings us an intriguing Friday night matchup between the Iowa Hawkeyes and UCLA Bruins. Kirk Ferentz’s Hawkeyes (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) will make the cross-country trip to the historic Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California, to face off against DeShaun Foster’s Bruins (3-5, 2-4) in a Big Ten clash.

Both teams come into this one riding two-game winning streaks, hoping to keep the momentum going. FOX will televise this 9:00 PM EST kickoff to a national audience.

Here is a look at the Iowa vs UCLA odds, in addition to our betting prediction for Friday night football.

Iowa vs UCLA Odds

The bookmakers have pegged Iowa as 6.5-point road favorites, giving the Hawkeyes a 69.2% implied probability of coming away with the victory. Meanwhile, the Bruins are +190 on the moneyline, meaning a $100 bet would net you a tidy $190 profit if they manage to pull off the upset at home.

It’s worth noting that the over/under total opened at 45.5 points but has since ticked down to 44.5, suggesting some sharp action on the under. Given Iowa’s elite defense and both teams’ preference for grinding it out on the ground, it’s not hard to see why the wiseguys are leaning towards a low-scoring affair.

Odds as of Nov. 5, at BetMGM. Check out BetMGM reviews or browse other top sports betting sites. 

Hawkeyes Betting Analysis

After a bit of a slow start, the Iowa Hawkeyes have found their stride in recent weeks. They’ve won three of their last four, including a 42-10 beatdown of Wisconsin last Saturday.

The biggest reason for Iowa’s resurgence? The emergence of sophomore running back Kaleb Johnson, who’s been an absolute workhorse. Johnson has already racked up 1,279 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns, putting him squarely in the Heisman Trophy conversation.

Is Kaleb Johnson (@Kj_Superman2) the best RB in the nation? 👀 pic.twitter.com/FKcjdPAnHW

— Rivals (@Rivals) November 4, 2024

The Hawkeyes will be without starting quarterback Cade McNamara, who’s still recovering from a concussion. In his place, backup Brendan Sullivan will get the nod. While losing McNamara hurts, Iowa’s bread and butter is their running game and defense.

The Hawkeyes rank 20th in scoring defense, allowing just 20.3 points per game. They’re no slouches against the run (41st) or pass (54th) either. If Johnson can keep doing his thing and the defense holds up its end of the bargain, Iowa has a great shot to cover the 6.5-point spread.

Bruins Betting Analysis

It’s been a bit of a roller-coaster ride for DeShaun Foster’s Bruins in their first season as Big Ten members. UCLA’s 3-5 record doesn’t quite tell the whole story, as they’ve faced a murderer’s row of opponents like #9 Indiana, #15 LSU, #1 Oregon, and #6 Penn State – all on the road.

To their credit, the Bruins have shown some serious fight in their last two games, grabbing road wins over Rutgers (35-32) and Nebraska (27-20).

Offensively, UCLA leans on quarterback Ethan Garbers, who’s thrown for 1,703 yards, 10 touchdowns, and nine picks. His go-to guy is tight end Moliki Matavao (24 catches, 303 yards), while running back T.J. Harden leads the team in rushing with 226 yards and a touchdown.

The Bruins’ strength, though, is their run defense. They rank 14th in the nation, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. If they can make Iowa’s offense one-dimensional and put the game on backup QB Brendan Sullivan’s shoulders, UCLA might just have a shot at covering the spread or even springing the upset.

Iowa vs UCLA Prediction

I’m getting defensive vibes from this Friday night showdown at the Rose Bowl. Both teams love to run the ball and have defenses that can give opponents fits. This game screams under to me.

Iowa’s identity is pretty simple – run the ball down your throat with Kaleb Johnson and let the defense do the rest. The Hawkeyes rank 8th in rushing attempts per game and 20th in scoring defense. With McNamara out, I expect them to lean on Johnson even more to control the clock and keep UCLA’s offense off the field.

On the flip side, UCLA’s run defense is no joke. They’re 14th in the country in yards allowed per carry, which could make Iowa’s one-trick pony offense a bit more predictable. The Bruins’ offense, while improved in recent weeks, has been hit-or-miss all season, averaging just 18.6 points per game (126th).

With two teams likely to play it close to the vest and defenses that can stifle their opponents’ strengths, I’m all over the under 44.5 points. The fact that the total has already dropped a point tells me the sharps think the same thing.

Iowa-UCLA Pick:

• Under 44.5 Points (-110)

In a highly anticipated matchup, the Iowa Hawkeyes will face off against the UCLA Bruins in Week 11 of college football. Both teams have had successful seasons so far, but only one will come out on top in this game.

The Hawkeyes come into this game with a 7-2 record and are currently ranked 20th in the nation. Led by quarterback Spencer Petras and running back Tyler Goodson, Iowa has been able to put up points on the board consistently throughout the season. Their defense has also been solid, allowing just 16.1 points per game.

On the other side, the Bruins are 5-4 on the season and are coming off a tough loss to Utah. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been a key player for UCLA, throwing for over 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns so far this season. Running back Zach Charbonnet has also been a force to be reckoned with, rushing for over 800 yards and 11 touchdowns.

In terms of odds, Iowa is currently favored to win this game by 3.5 points. The over/under for total points scored is set at 46.5.

When it comes to predicting the outcome of this game, it’s important to consider both teams’ strengths and weaknesses. Iowa’s defense has been impressive all season, while UCLA’s offense has shown flashes of brilliance. Ultimately, I believe that Iowa’s defense will be able to contain UCLA’s offense and come out on top in a close game.

Prediction: Iowa wins 24-21

Overall, this game is sure to be an exciting matchup between two talented teams. Fans can expect a hard-fought battle on the field as both teams look to secure a crucial win in Week 11 of college football.