Jul 10, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) before the All-Star Home Run Derby at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
- The 2024 MLB Home Run Derby takes place at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, tonight at 7:00 pm CT/8:00 pm ET
- Two-time champion Pete Alonso is the favorite but his odds are much longer than last year, when he was eliminated in round one
- See the 2024 Home Run Derby odds, predictions, and best props to bet on Monday, July 15
The annual MLB Home Run Derby takes place on Monday night (7:00 pm CT/8:00 pm ET) at the Rangers’ Globe Life Field in Arlington.
With two-time champion Pete Alonso in a field that includes five newcomers, the Mets first baseman, who won the 2019 and 2021 editions, is once again at the top of the Home Run Derby odds.
Home Run Derby Odds
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (Mets) | +330 |
| Marcell Ozuna (Braves) | +425 |
| Bobby Witt Jr (Royals) | +425 |
| Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) | +475 |
| Adolis Garcia (Rangers) | +550 |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | +950 |
| Jose Ramirez (Guardians) | +1300 |
| Alec Bohm (Phillies) | +1600 |
Alonso is priced at +330 to become the first-even three-time home run derby champion. He’s followed by the Braves’ Marcell Ozuna and the Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr, both at +425. Emerging Orioles star Gunnar Henderson has the fourth-best odds at +475 while hometown hero Adolis Garcia is fifth at +550.
This year’s longshots are the Dodgers’ Teoscar Hernandez (+950), the Guardians’ Jose Ramirez (+1300), and the Phillies’ Alec Bohm.
Odds as of July 15 at DraftKings. Claim one of the DraftKings promos to bet on the 2024 Home Run Derby.
Changes to Home Run Derby Format in 2024
Unlike recent editions, the 2024 Home Run Derby is not a single-elimination bracket. Instead, the four hitters with the most homers after round one will advance to the semifinals. In the second round, the player with the most homers in the first round will be matched up against the player with the fourth-most.
In the first two rounds, batters gets 40 pitches maximum (or three minutes) to hit as many home runs as possible. In the final, the two participants will get 27 pitches (or two minutes).
Ties in the first round are broken by distance: the player who hit the longest home run in the round advances. In the semis and final, ties result in a 60-second swing-off.
Home Run Derby Experience & Results
| Player (Team) | Past HR Derbies | Best Result | Reg. Season HR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (Mets) | 4 | Winner (2019, 2021) | 19 |
| Adolis Garcia (Rangers) | 1 | Round 1 (2023) | 17 |
| Jose Ramirez (Guardians) | 1 | Round 1 (2022) | 23 |
| Alec Bohm (Phillies) | 0 | N/A | 11 |
| Bobby Witt Jr (Royals) | 0 | N/A | 16 |
| Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) | 0 | N/A | 28 |
| Marcell Ozuna (Braves) | 0 | N/A | 26 |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | 0 | N/A | 19 |
Alonso is the only player in the field who’s experienced any success at an MLB Home Run Derby. Neither Garcia nor Ramirez advanced past the first round in their previous appearances; under the old format, Ramirez lost 18-17 to eventual-champion Juan Soto in the first round in 2022; Ramirez’s score was the lowest of the first round. Garcia fell 24-17 to Randy Arozarena in the first round in 2023, only Mookie Betts (11 ) hit fewer homers that year.
The other five competitors are all Derby newcomers. Henderson has the most regular-season dingers among all the competitors at 28, followed by Ozuna with 26. The pair its third and fourth in the majors, trailing only Aaron Judge (34) and Shohei Ohtani (29).
2024 MLB Home Run Derby Picks & Predictions
At these prices, Alonso is an absolute steal. He entered last year as the +175 favorite before falling to Julio Rodriguez for the second straight time. It remains to be seen if the format change will impact the two-time champion, but his batting-practice bona fides are proven beyond a doubt. Even the years when Alonso didn’t win, he still put in respectable performances. He cranked out 21 in the first round last year but lost to record-setting Rodriguez, who hit an astonishing 41. The year prior, he lost in round two, again to Rodriguez, 31-23.
In other words, Julio Rodriguez is the only person who’s ever knocked Alonso out of a Derby, and he’s not in the field.
In addition to backing Alonzo, I’m also fading Jose Ramirez, whose over/under in round one is set at 19.5 home runs. Under the old format, which was more hitter-friendly, Ramirez only managed a disappointing 17 at Dodger Stadium. I don’t expect the Guardians star – or any player – to fare better under the new parameters.
MLB HR Derby Picks:
- Alonso to win (+330)
- Ramirez under 19.5 home runs in round one (-120)
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
The 2024 Home Run Derby is set to be an exciting event for baseball fans and bettors alike. With some of the game’s biggest sluggers stepping up to the plate, there are sure to be plenty of long balls and jaw-dropping moments. If you’re looking to get in on the action and place some bets on the Home Run Derby, here are some odds, picks, predictions, and best betting props to consider.
Odds:
As of now, the odds for the 2024 Home Run Derby have not been released. However, you can expect to see some of the game’s top power hitters listed as favorites to win the event. Players like Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto are likely to be among the top contenders, but there could always be a surprise dark horse who emerges as the champion.
Picks:
When it comes to picking a winner for the Home Run Derby, it’s important to consider a player’s track record in previous derbies, their power hitting ability, and their current form. Look for players who have a history of success in the event and who have been hitting well leading up to the competition. Keep an eye on players who have been hitting a high number of home runs in games leading up to the derby.
Predictions:
While it’s always difficult to predict the outcome of a single event like the Home Run Derby, there are a few players who are likely to be strong contenders. Look for players like Shohei Ohtani, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Pete Alonso to put on a show and potentially come out on top. These players have shown they have the power and consistency to compete at a high level in events like the Home Run Derby.
Best Betting Props:
In addition to betting on the outright winner of the Home Run Derby, there are plenty of other betting props to consider. Some popular props include betting on the total number of home runs hit in the event, whether a player will hit a certain number of home runs in a round, or even whether a player will hit a home run on their first swing. These props can add an extra level of excitement to watching the Home Run Derby and give you more opportunities to win big.
Overall, the 2024 Home Run Derby is shaping up to be a must-watch event for baseball fans and bettors alike. With plenty of power hitters ready to put on a show, there are sure to be plenty of fireworks and memorable moments. Keep an eye on the odds, make your picks, and consider some of the best betting props to make the most of this exciting event.
